Martin Ward

🇬🇧🇷🇺 Britain is talking about war with Russia while lacking the military strength to fight one. Brandon Weichert spoke with Ian Proud, a former British diplomat who served in Moscow and helped authorize UK sanctions against Russia. And Proud had a rather uncomfortable assessment of Britain's position. The British Army has roughly 73,000 troops. Russia has around 1.5 million military personnel and one of the world's largest nuclear arsenals. Yet senior British military figures are increasingly discussing the possibility of confrontation with Moscow. Proud believes Britain has spent years talking about Russia while largely abandoning the harder work of talking to Russia. He also described being detained for three hours at Heathrow after attending the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow, despite notifying the British government of his trip beforehand. But his bigger concern is Ukraine. Proud argues that Russia has the manpower, energy resources and industrial capacity to sustain the conflict far longer than Ukraine and its European supporters. He believes Moscow could accept a settlement centered on the Donbas, but warns that continued refusal to negotiate could eventually encourage Russia to push farther toward Kyiv or Odesa. And there's a political problem Western leaders may find even harder to confront. Proud argues that any eventual peace agreement could leave Ukraine with worse terms than those discussed in 2022, after years of casualties and enormous financial costs. Britain's leaders may be preparing their population for a confrontation with Russia. Proud thinks they should be preparing them for the compromises necessary to avoid one. @WeTheBrandon @proud_diplomat