Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter. Nerd for đşď¸ maps, âˇď¸ ski slopes & đť trad tunes. Has seen enough.
Washington, DC
Joined September 2009
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My personal hunch: if you're looking for upsets, they're more likely to be in places w/ lots of secular whites & independents (i.e. the Midwest) than in the Deep South.
Not totally unrelated: my lunch locale today.
New @CookPolitical: 19 more House ratings move in Dems' direction, including six seats from Toss Up to Lean D. Full analysis by @ercovey: cookpolitical.com/analysis/hâŚ
New podcast: I took a look ahead at the key midterm races w/ @loujacobson & @MichaelLeePope in partnership w/ @Center4Politics. open.spotify.com/episode/6ewâŚ
New @CookPolitical: 11 more House ratings move in Dems' direction, including five GOP seats from Likely R to Lean R. Full analysis by @ercovey: cookpolitical.com/analysis/hâŚ
Look forward to discussing @CookPoliticalâs midterm outlook on @cspanwj at 8am ET. Have a question about a competitive race? Be sure to call in.
A decent way to think about 2026: many of the places that have swung the most towards Republicans during the Trump era (Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, south TX, north country of NY) are the places we could see some of the biggest pro-Dem swings this year.
Dave Wasserman retweeted
đ NEW Siena poll in NY-21 (Retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik's district):
Blake Gendebien (D) 46%
Anthony Constantino (R) 42%
Undecided 8%
Sponsored by local news outlets NBC5 (WPTZ), Times-Union & WAMC, conducted by Siena from Sept 30-Oct 6 among 496 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.6%.
New @CookPolitical: 18 more House ratings move in Dems' direction, including four GOP incumbents from Toss Up to Lean D. Full analysis by @ercovey: cookpolitical.com/analysis/hâŚ
New @CookPolitical: Dems inch closer to Senate majority as three races move in their favor.
#KSSEN: Lean R to Toss Up
#NHSEN: Toss Up to Lean D
#NCSEN: Lean D to Likely D
Full analysis by @JessicaTaylor: cookpolitical.com/analysis/sâŚ
New @CookPolitical: GOP on track to lose House majority as 15 race ratings shift towards Dems. Full analysis by @ercovey: cookpolitical.com/analysis/hâŚ
New @CookPolitical: with less than 40 days to go, the most critical voters are the "doubly disenchanted" - the ~17% of Trump disapprovers who aren't (yet) in the Dem column. The critical pain point for them? Energy/gas prices. My full analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/nâŚ
New @CookPolitical: with less than six weeks to go, the fight for the Senate is a true Toss Up, with three races shifting towards Dems:
#GASEN: Lean D to Likely D
#KSSEN: Likely R to Lean R
#SCSEN: Solid R to Likely R
Full analysis by @JessicaTaylor: cookpolitical.com/analysis/sâŚ
Dave Wasserman retweeted
Voters competitive CDâs polled for @CookPolitical see election not just as a referendum on Trump (whoâs underwater by 16pts), but as a repudiation of the entire political system. Indies prefer candidate who will âreform entire systemâ vs serve as a âcheck on Trumpâby 39pts.
NEW @CookPolitical: our battleground district poll shows a seven point swing to Democrats in the most competitive House races vs. 2024, putting them in excellent position to win the House majority. Full analysis by @Amyewalter and Carrie Dann: cookpolitical.com/analysis/sâŚ
Dave Wasserman retweeted
In recent era, midterm âwavesâ have been relegated to purple seats/states. Pushing into deep partisan territory is rare. This cycle the combo of tariffs, rural health care cuts, & diesel fuel gives Dems their first real chance to win back rural/farm state voters. But, if they come up short in this environment, hard to make the case that these seats/states can come back in play anytime in the near future.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/nâŚ
Dave Wasserman retweeted
New polling conducted of TX Hispanic voters for @CookPolitical and @Univision finds Trumpâs â24 coalition in shambles. Almost 1 in 5 Trump â24 voters now disapprove of POTUS. Talarico leads Paxton by 33. In Rio Grande Valley, Dems lead generic by 14.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/hâŚ
Massive win for Dems, as SCOTUS blocks Missouri GOPâs 7R-1D gerrymander. #MO05 Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D) goes from doomed to safe, and Rep. Ann Wagnerâs (R) #MO02 now worth keeping an eye on too.
Dave Wasserman retweeted
How will we know if 2026 is a wave election in the House? For @amyewalter, the real sign of a wave year wonât be how many seats Republicans lose, but rather the types of seats that change hands.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/nâŚ