Richard Mobbs 🇺🇦

Night Summary (10.01.2024 05:30 RO/UA Time): 0. I start by saying that this summary may come as a shock to some, especially those from the media, but the positions offered by the source deepstatemap are as close to the truth as possible. 1. Russian offensives: - Starting in October 2023, the Russians announced, around the same time as the culmination of the #Ukrainian counteroffensive, a counter-offensive. They announced it with great fanfare, on the Eastern Axis, meaning the #Kupyansk-Svatove-#Kreminna Front. Then announced a (counter)offensive with over 1000 tanks and armoured vehicles and 100,000 men. I didn't take them seriously. My mistake. The truth is, it wasn't just my mistake. It was their mistake too. They took themselves altogether too seriously. Let's get down to the facts: 1.1 The Russian #Kupyansk offensive: - Between the approximate date (August 2023) when they effectively launched their counteroffensive on this front and today, the #Russian Army has not advanced more than 6 km west of #Svatove, ground reclaimed by #AFU counterattacks. At this point, as maps, satellite and drone imagery indicate, the Russians have reached their culmination and will have to go into rotation and conserve the forces they have in the area. - Estimated losses are over 400 armored vehicles (visually confirmed - so losses may be even higher) throughout this period and over 30,000 personnel (according to some SOURCES! Mind you, sources should always be taken with a grain of salt). 30,000 people (5 times what they lost in 9 years in Afghanistan) for almost no km2 of land gained. 1.2 Russian Avdiivka offensive: - On 6 October 2023 the offensive against Avdiivka began de facto. For those who have not been following events or are not aware of the geography of Ukraine, #Avdiivka is a suburb of #Donetsk City, the capital of #Donetsk Oblast and the largest city in #Donbas. Avdiivka is a town that before Russia's illegal invasion in 2014 had a population of about 32,000. From then until today, with few interruptions and without any interruption since 24 February 2022, Avdiivka has been besieged by the Russian Army as a frontline settlement. - In the Russian offensive that began on 6 October 2023 the Russians lost confirmed over 300 armoured vehicles, and the number of soldiers lost by the Russians is over 20,000, these are the most decent estimates, here the Russians lost up to 500 soldiers per day in November 2023, at a loss rate estimated by British intelligence to be up to 7 (Russians KIA or wounded) per one Ukrainian, which is absolutely devastating. - Avdiivka, unlike #Bakhmut, in case anyone is curious about Russian interest in it, is a town that can be a springboard on an operational level, in that a Russian conquest of it would make it easier for them to move on to towns like Pavlograd or even the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk concentration (which is currently fortified). But what military analysts, including myself, see as the offensive for Avdiivka is a personal demand on the part of Putin, who has an election in March this year and must deliver a victory to his people, whether that victory means conquering a city now deserted and destroyed. 1.3 Russian Bakhmut Offensive: - This offensive, which began sometime around October 22, when including the Ukrainian Armed Forces reached its culmination, mostly on the southern flank of the city and is perhaps the most successful Russian military operation in the last 4 months (except for killing hundreds of civilians, there they are exceptionally effective), advancing a few kilometers on the northern flank and capturing the town of #Khromove and advancing towards Chasiv Yar. - This offensive has not yet, in my view, peaked and the Russians still have forces to push towards Chasiv Yar. [PERSONAL SPECULATION!] They won't reach Chasiv Yar in the winter months. 1.4 Russian Krynky Offensive: - #Krynky (the town in the green circle below the big red arrow on one of the maps) is a pre-war town of 991 inhabitants, located on the eastern bank of the #Dnieper, was until 4 November controlled by the Russians, and since then the Ukrainian Army Marine Forces (36th and 38th Brigades, among others) have begun to conquer it and establish a bridgehead. I know the exact date, because I was there when what I'm telling you happened (some of you may remember the video posted on Facebook, where I was being shelled almost every minute). - There are about 300 Ukrainian special troops in Krynky at the moment, fighting against 7 to 12 Russian brigades. By this time, the 300 (they have already become a symbol of resistance) are defended by Magyar Birds and Ukrainian artillery on the west bank, to maintain control of the town and to draw and generate as much destruction as possible to the Russian Army. So far, at least 100 armored vehicles (visually confirmed) have been lost by the Russians trying to clear this bridgehead of 300 Ukrainian-Spartans, who are without armored equipment. 2. Russian air attacks: - As I said in the last "Night Summary" before Christmas, the Russians will be conducting ballistic missile, drone, and aerial bombing attacks every night until after the New Year. Apparently we were not only right, but unfortunately they are continuing; - While in the latter part of 2023, Ukraine's anti-aircraft defenses dealt well with the multiple salvoes of missiles and drones launched by the Russians (shooting down rate of over 80% of targets), in recent days, due to repeated Russian oversaturation attacks, but ESPECIALLY LACK OF AMMUNITION, Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses have started to be much less effective. Unfortunately, most of those affected are civilians, who are left without heat, electricity, running water. Attacking the civilian infrastructure, once again I feel compelled to repeat, Russia is a terrorist state denounced by the European Parliament (but not only) and this one is led by an internationally prosecuted war criminal; 3. International aid: - #Germany is number 2 in helping Ukraine militarily so far, from the beginning of the full scale invasion until today, only surpassed by the #USA. The #UK is in the top 3, and of the Eastern countries, #Poland stands out along with the Baltics. #Romania, the #Czech Republic and #Slovakia are also among Ukraine's most important allies, Romania especially from an economic perspective and the development of the F16 pilot training point at the Fetești Base and the provision of ammunition for artillery as well as ammunition for individual weapons. - There is still no consensus in the US #Congress for the $60 billion military aid for Ukraine. If even points 1.1 through 1.4, known in much greater detail to members of the US Congress, do not get them to vote for this aid that would radically tip the balance of the war this year and save tens or perhaps even hundreds of thousands of lives, then I don't know what else to say. There is evidence that Ukraine is the best investment in the security of the United States, in the security of its #NATO allies in Europe, and in macro-level stability. - The European Union has not yet released the EUR 50 billion in financial aid to Ukraine, blocked by #Hungary, but the European Union has started to increase financial aid state by state so that Ukraine can survive. ---- In the coming days I will do an analysis of what I think will happen this year, but until then, please take a look at the maps I have put up. For those who are shocked seeing in the local or international media how Russia is making significant advances, please see that they do not exist. And this is not because of the weather, but despite the lack of ammunition, the AFU once again manages to demonstrate tenacity, military intelligence, effective use of the extremely limited means at its disposal, a courage and determination of both the Ukrainian people and especially the Ukrainian Army. For lack of other reasons, if world leaders could see no other reasons, this would be reason enough to support Ukraine not just to survive, but to win. I leave you with these maps and invite you to like, share and leave a comment so that we can convince the algorithm that this post will reach as many people as possible who may be affected by the Russian's lying propaganda! Slava Ukraini!