kinetiq vet, 100k+ kpoints. now: elysium day 0, rh meme graveyard (bagholder myself), points farming math. receipts over hopium
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Joined October 2020
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something doesn't add up on $VAR
otc: points trading $40-50, everyone's happy
polymarket: only 56% that var fdv is even above $1b a day after launch
32% of supply goes to points at tge, that's confirmed. at $1b fdv that's roughly $30 a point
so either otc buyers are overpaying or polymarket is sleeping on it
i know which side i'd take. where's the logic break for you?
the median hyperliquid airdrop wallet got 64 $HYPE
that's ~$5.2k today. 86% of wallets sold it all. median exit: $6.25 💀
now:
> s3 not announced
> 388.88M $HYPE (38.888% of supply) still unminted for "future emissions and community rewards"
> oct 19 hyperliquid policy center letter to the sec: 27 mentions of "airdrop", asks to cover drops that "may be recurring or programmatic"
last time one wallet never placed a single trade. it just sat in hlp and got 104k $HYPE
i'm farming like it's coming. trading on hl, poking hip-3 and hip-4 markets, holding my $HYPE
what did you get last time, and did you sell? be honest
drop your farm, i'll price it
reply with venue (variational or lighter rh), volume, points and total cost. i'll do your cost per point in the replies
my line: variational ~$8-9 a point, lighter rh $1.5-2.5. yesterday 5 of 7 public lighter farms came out above $3
where's yours?
yesterday i said anything above $3 a lighter rh point is already risky. so i pulled every cost per point farmers posted publicly this week
> 7 farmers, $2.94 to $10.53 a point
> median $3.85. 5 of 7 above my line
> the two at ~$10 didn't overpay on fees. one got partially liquidated, one "entered a few positions badly"
> 11m $LIT over an estimated 2.0-2.75m points at $3.12 lit = ~$12-17 a point
so the math still works at $4. the risk is the tail, i think. one bad fill turns a 4x into a 1x
in our community people are sitting on hundreds of points at under $2 each. boring setups, no hero trades
meanwhile lighter just listed $XTEN pre-market. ~$300m fdv, ~$1.2 an extended point. first real price check of perp dex tge season
$VAR is next. 32% to points, $1b fdv is ~$30 a point. not mad about that one
what did your last week cost per point?
if you're starting from zero
variational: omni.variational.io/?ref=OMN…
lighter rh: robinhoodchain.lighter.xyz/?…
xten hyperp on hyperliquid sits at ~$280m fdv
polymarket: xten fdv >$150m day after launch at 83%, >$500m at 14%
so the market already prices it inside $150-500m. both of those bets look like the easy side to me. what am i missing?
lighter has burned 18.1m lit so far. at $3.00 that's ~$54m of tokens gone, over 7% of the float
2.45m of it was q3 alone. q3 revenue was $8.55m on $137.67b volume and all of it goes to buybacks
lit is -3% today and the tl is calling it dead again. i'd rather hold the token that eats its own float every quarter. where's your bid
xten trading at ~$280m fdv on day one
var is way bigger: $2.5b daily volume, ~10x extended's oi
and 32% of var supply goes to points holders at tge
if you're not farming var points idk what you're doing, this could be life-changing
2,000+ traders on var got paid real stock dividends in one week just for holding longs
from what people who dug in found: the day before ex-date shorts pay longs the dividend through funding, and the market goes reduce only ~2h before so you can't snipe it
works on index swaps too. i think this is the most underrated thing on omni rn. which ticker are you holding for the payout
yesterday i said anything above $3 a lighter rh point is already risky. so i pulled every cost per point farmers posted publicly this week
> 7 farmers, $2.94 to $10.53 a point
> median $3.85. 5 of 7 above my line
> the two at ~$10 didn't overpay on fees. one got partially liquidated, one "entered a few positions badly"
> 11m $LIT over an estimated 2.0-2.75m points at $3.12 lit = ~$12-17 a point
so the math still works at $4. the risk is the tail, i think. one bad fill turns a 4x into a 1x
in our community people are sitting on hundreds of points at under $2 each. boring setups, no hero trades
meanwhile lighter just listed $XTEN pre-market. ~$300m fdv, ~$1.2 an extended point. first real price check of perp dex tge season
$VAR is next. 32% to points, $1b fdv is ~$30 a point. not mad about that one
what did your last week cost per point?
you can buy $LIT at market. or you can farm it at ~$3 a point while it's worth ~$17
i picked the second one. 122 @Lighter_xyz points so far
and here's why i'm not worried about what's behind the token:
> ~$4.9m revenue last month, ~$63m a year at this pace. $2.75m of it went back to $LIT holders, ~2.45m burned in Q3 alone
> the Robinhood Chain side alone made $2.08m, up 39% from the month before
> Robinhood Wallet and Telegram Wallet already route trades to Lighter. and MetaMask just posted a video of a lighter with no caption
> CFTC filing next month, Robinhood's US app once it's approved. US is where the real money is
most perp dexs give you points with nothing behind them. this one prints money every day
the farm is still half empty. ~110k points drop every friday and only a few thousand people actually show up for them
stop watching the chart. start farming the token:
> Robinhood Wallet app for 2x
> hedge RH vs Core for 2.5x
> trade this week's earnings names
numbers are self-reported posts on x from 23-25.10 (handles on the card). pool: 11m lit for the robinhood chain community
robinhoodchain.lighter.xyz/?…
eqx spot stocks go live on hyperliquid today at 9:30 ET. 11 tickers incl spy, qqq, nvda, tsla as hip-1 tokens vs usdc, team says 1:1 backed
so hl now has hip-3 stock perps, pre-ipo perps and spot shares on one book. people joke it wants to house all finance, looking less like a joke
what i actually watch: the spread after 4pm ET when there's no nyse to arb against. if that stays tight xstocks has a real fight on its hands
holding $HYPE
2 days ago i said the badges stay badges. reveal day:
- $SONEIUM confirmed
- tge "at a later date". no supply, no allocation
- soneium score and badges: not in the blog, the thread or the vision paper
- portal starts with primary sales of tokenized ip. moriusa first, k-pop concert royalty bonds with dayonedream
real ip onchain is a fair bet. just tell the 12-season crowd where they stand before tge, not after
score farmers, holding your badges or done with the chain?
5 days ago i said the merge was 1 of my 5 conditions to flip bullish on $AERO. condition 4 shipped on time. condition 5 was "new chains add net revenue"
5 days in, defillama fees per day:
> robinhood chain + ethereum + arbitrum: ~$20k, under 8% of the total
> base: ~$245k, down 24% vs the week before
> total: ~$272k vs ~$337k the week before
> $AERO $0.83 the night it shipped, $0.66 now
so far the new chains added less than base lost. weekend is in that sample, so i'm not calling it yet
yesterday predictive allocation went live, rewards now follow expected fees instead of a weekly vote. that's a condition 2 test, not 5
still not buying. what daily fee number gets you in?
august me: "$AERO isn't cheap"
$AERO: +80%
fair. but i gave 5 conditions to flip bullish and tonight one of them ships
aerodrome x velodrome merge goes live, sAERO earns exchange revenue in real time, one liquidity layer for ethereum
if new chains bring real fees, the checklist gets ugly for bears
fees by chain: defillama.com/fees/aerodrome · predictive allocation: xitter.cf/aeroxyz/status/2114405…
swaps on var launched less than 2 months ago and they're already 15%+ of all volume the protocol ever processed
var says $1m+ orders on tradfi names cost under 1 bip there. ibkr perps went live last friday, 20x, zero fees
at this pace i think swaps pass perps on var before the points program ends. which ticker do you want listed next
israel votes tomorrow. polymarket has ~$54m riding on who ends up pm
before you check the odds, gut call: who's the next israeli pm?
poll closes before the booths do. wednesday i put our crowd next to the market price and we see who's sharper
33%Gadi Eizenkot
0%Benjamin Netanyahu
0%Naftali Bennett
67%someone else
3 votes • Final resultssources:
TheMarker via the reporter: xitter.cf/doritsos/status/211429…
recap: xitter.cf/DocumentingPRL/status/…
bear case: xitter.cf/immutablejacob/status/…
counter: xitter.cf/brezshares/status/2114…
no official word from the team yet
Nipping this one in the bud right away.
Pearl is a fair launch L1. There is no equity / token split.
Pearl Research Labs is an equity business AI lab, completely separate from the token. The only way to acquire Pearl is to mine it, or buy it from a miner.
This is no different than the multitude of Bitcoin core contributors that built and raised for projects on top of Bitcoin after launch, for example Lightning network or Blockstream.
IMO it makes total sense that there will be things built on top of Pearl. This is very different from the typical equity / token split concerns that emerge when holding a token is meant to represent interest / exposure to a business
brazil's stock market was closed when lula won. hyperliquid wasn't
xyz:EWZ, the hip-3 perp on the brazil etf:
> friday nyse close: $42.59
> weekend high: $46.30
> 01:00 msk: steps down to $42.59, then $40.46
> 03:00 msk: wicks to $32.63, polymarket posts lula 99%
> now $34.15, -20% vs friday's close. ~$40m traded in 4 hours
friday i said hip-3 was 48% of hl perp volume. this is why, i think. a 24/7 price for something that can't trade yet
ewz opens on nyse in a few hours. over or under $34.15?
trade.xyz did $3.5b in the last 24h. btc on hyperliquid did $2.0b. hip-3 is 48% of hl perp volume right now
wednesday i said buybacks only matter if the volume keeps coming. this volume barely feeds them: 97% of hip-3 runs in growth mode, fees cut 90%+, deployer keeps half
30d buybacks $66.5m, -16% vs the 30d before. still holding hype. the line i watch is crypto perp volume, that's where most of the buyback comes from
numbers: hyperliquid api (xyz:EWZ 1h candles, markPx, dayNtlVlm), friday close via yahoo finance. polymarket calls: xitter.cf/Polymarket/status/2114… and xitter.cf/Polymarket/status/2114…
