Roster Math

Projected record = our win probability added up over the posted conference schedule (18 games each). The number in parentheses is the rating: points per 100 possessions better than an average D1 team. (18/18)

#16 Kansas State · projected 5.1-12.9 · rating +5.2 (99th overall) Returning -0.3 (22% of minutes), transfers +6.3 (70% of minutes), freshmen -0.4 (7% of minutes) Biggest: JT Rock +2.4, Brandon Rechsteiner +1.3, Jaden Schutt +1.3 80% range: -2.0 to +12.4. (17/18)

#15 Oklahoma State · projected 5.8-12.2 · rating +6.7 (91st overall) Returning -1.0 (21% of minutes), transfers +11.7 (62% of minutes), freshmen +0.6 (18% of minutes) Biggest: Kashie Natt +4.0, Julius Halaifonua +2.7, Luka Bogavac +2.2 80% range: -0.4 to +14.0. (16/18)

#14 Colorado · projected 6.5-11.5 · rating +7.7 (85th overall) Returning +4.0 (43% of minutes), transfers +4.9 (38% of minutes), freshmen -0.8 (18% of minutes) Biggest: Justin Neely +4.7, Barrington Hargress +4.4, Noah Feddersen +1.0 80% range: +0.4 to +14.9. (15/18)

#13 UCF · projected 6.7-11.3 · rating +9.0 (70th overall) Returning +1.7 (22% of minutes), transfers +11.1 (75% of minutes), freshmen -0.1 (3% of minutes) Biggest: Dior Johnson +4.0, Lewis Walker +2.9, John Bol +1.9 80% range: +1.6 to +16.4. (14/18)

#12 Utah · projected 7.4-10.6 · rating +8.9 (72nd overall) Returning -1.9 (14% of minutes), transfers +13.1 (66% of minutes), freshmen -2.3 (21% of minutes) Biggest: Jackson Holcombe +6.5, Trey Campbell +4.5, TJ Burch +1.8 80% range: +1.6 to +16.2. (13/18)

#11 Arizona State · projected 7.9-10.1 · rating +11.8 (52nd overall) Returning -1.0 (11% of minutes), transfers +19.4 (76% of minutes), freshmen -0.8 (13% of minutes) Biggest: Paulius Murauskas +6.5, Ben Defty +4.8, Joel Foxwell +3.5 80% range: +4.3 to +19.2. (12/18)

#10 West Virginia · projected 8.2-9.8 · rating +12.3 (48th overall) Returning +4.4 (23% of minutes), transfers +11.1 (61% of minutes), freshmen +1.3 (16% of minutes) Biggest: Jasper Floyd +4.3, Finley Bizjack +3.2, Martin Somerville +3.1 80% range: +5.0 to +19.6. (11/18)

#9 TCU · projected 8.3-9.7 · rating +11.9 (51st overall) Returning +12.5 (60% of minutes), transfers +3.2 (34% of minutes), freshmen -0.3 (6% of minutes) Biggest: Xavier Edmonds +5.3, Micah Robinson +3.5, Brock Harding +3.1 80% range: +4.6 to +19.2. (10/18)

#8 Cincinnati · projected 8.7-9.3 · rating +13.1 (42nd overall) Returning -0.1 (1% of minutes), transfers +16.4 (99% of minutes) Biggest: Trevian Carson +3.4, MJ Collins Jr. +2.8, Tylen Riley +2.3 80% range: +5.8 to +20.4. (9/18)

#7 Baylor · projected 9.0-9.0 · rating +13.7 (37th overall) Returning +4.4 (33% of minutes), transfers +11.7 (51% of minutes), freshmen +1.5 (16% of minutes) Biggest: Isaac Celiscar +4.8, Caden Powell +2.7, Kayden Mingo +2.7 80% range: +6.4 to +21.1. (8/18)

#6 BYU · projected 10.7-7.3 · rating +18.1 (23rd overall) Returning +6.7 (29% of minutes), transfers +13.7 (50% of minutes), freshmen +3.6 (20% of minutes) Biggest: Jaxon Kohler +8.1, Robert Wright III +5.9, Bruce Branch III +3.4 80% range: +10.7 to +25.5. (7/18)

#5 Texas Tech · projected 11.2-6.8 · rating +19.9 (15th overall) Returning +10.2 (34% of minutes), transfers +11.8 (57% of minutes), freshmen +0.1 (8% of minutes) Biggest: JT Toppin +6.6, Donovan Atwell +3.4, Cruz Davis +3.0 80% range: +12.5 to +27.3. (6/18)

#4 Kansas · projected 11.9-6.1 · rating +21.7 (10th overall) Returning +6.5 (29% of minutes), transfers +15.8 (48% of minutes), freshmen +6.6 (24% of minutes) Biggest: Tyran Stokes +5.9, Trey Kaufman-Renn +5.3, Keanu Dawes +4.1 80% range: +14.2 to +29.1. (5/18)

#3 Iowa State · projected 11.9-6.1 · rating +21.9 (9th overall) Returning +12.6 (44% of minutes), transfers +12.1 (49% of minutes), freshmen -0.1 (7% of minutes) Biggest: Tamin Lipsey +5.8, Jaquan Johnson +5.6, Ryan Prather Jr. +2.5 80% range: +14.5 to +29.1. (4/18)

#2 Houston · projected 12.1-5.9 · rating +22.2 (8th overall) Returning +7.7 (30% of minutes), transfers +10.8 (57% of minutes), freshmen +0.6 (14% of minutes) Biggest: Joseph Tugler +4.4, Delrecco Gillespie +2.9, Corey Hadnot II +2.9 80% range: +14.8 to +29.5. (3/18)

#1 Arizona · projected 12.7-5.3 · rating +24.1 (3rd overall) Returning +12.3 (35% of minutes), transfers +8.5 (44% of minutes), freshmen +5.1 (21% of minutes) Biggest: Motiejus Krivas +7.8, RJ Godfrey +4.8, Caleb Holt +4.5 80% range: +16.5 to +31.6. (2/18)

Roster Math: Big 12 projected standings Arizona projects to win the Big 12 at 12.7-5.3, 0.5 games clear of Houston. (1/18)

Projected record = our win probability added up over the posted conference schedule (20 games each). The number in parentheses is the rating: points per 100 possessions better than an average D1 team. (13/13)

#11 Seton Hall · projected 6.5-13.5 · rating +4.3 (106th overall) Returning +2.2 (26% of minutes), transfers +0.3 (71% of minutes), freshmen -0.1 (3% of minutes) Biggest: Tajuan Simpkins +1.4, Trey Parker +1.0, Simeon Wilcher +0.3 80% range: -2.9 to +11.6. (12/13)