Russian oil & gas expert | #1-rated analyst - II and Extel | Founding Partner - Emerging Markets Oil & Gas Consulting Partners, LLC (EMOGCP) | Visit my Substack
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➡️ The 4x growth of Russian piped gas deliveries to Türkiye represents a thin slice of data (the first 5 days of Nov. vs the first 5 days of Sep. and Oct.), and Turkish deliveries can be volatile (chart).
➡️ The 78% rise in total Oct. vs. Sep. is more interesting, but Türkiye won't release full Sep. data for another 7-10 days, so we can't be sure how meaningful it might be. Our guess is that it will easily fall within the normal month-to-month volatility as shown in the chart.
#OOTT #gas #LNG
In early November, the volume of Russian pipeline gas reaching Turkish consumers increased significantly. According to Gazprom's latest statistics , deliveries during the first five days of the month were almost four times higher than during the same period in October and September.
The company linked the export growth to the situation on the European gas market. According to Gazprom, record volumes of fuel withdrawals from underground storage facilities were recorded in Europe on October 28 and 29, as well as on November 1, 2, and 4. kommersant.ru/doc/9091932
➡️ De-sanctioning some shadow-fleet tankers makes sense right now.
➡️ The pool of active users has shrunk from three countries to one since January. Iran is effectively blockaded and Venezuela has largely shifted to compliant (“white”) tankers.
➡️ That leaves Russia as the only major remaining user. It has already absorbed some of the smaller ships (Aframaxes and Suezmaxes), but the idle Venezuelan VLCCs are poorly suited to Russian ports because of draft limits in the Black and Baltic Seas. Those supertankers are the clearest candidates for redeployment.
#OOTT #Russia #Iran
Oil traders are seeking approval from the US government to use some tankers that were sanctioned for their involvement in shipping illicit oil, in an effort to address a vessel crunch and lower prices.
At least four companies, including Trafigura Group, Vitol Group, Mercuria Energy Group Ltd., and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. are in discussions with US officials for licenses that would allow them to purchase or lease some ships that are blacklisted by the US government, according to people with knowledge of the matter. #oott bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Russian Oil & Gas Monitor retweeted
➡️ Indeed, a Russian-Iranian gas pipeline has been in discussion for some time. We published a piece on it a couple of months ago.👇
➡️ Iran is short of gas, especially during cold snaps, Russia has excess production capacity, and there is even some Soviet-era infrastructure that could allow deliveries to begin at a low level pretty quickly.
➡️ That said, there are some significant obstacles to a major deal, mostly to do with Iran's extremely low domestic prices and the need for pretty significant new pipeline from southern Russia to Northern Iran to get to significant volumes.
#Russia #Iran #Gas
➡️ Russia's oil extraction tax for October was based on $92/bbl (September's average Urals price). In November it will rise 10% to $101.5. The last time it was higher was in September of 2014, 12 years ago, at $102.8.
➡️ So, although Russia just posted very strong oil & gas tax revenues for September. On a like-for-like* basis, the numbers will be even stronger in November.
* September revenues were boosted heavily by the quarterly collection of the profit-sharing mechanism of the Excess Profits Tax, but were collections were strong even aside from that.
#OOTT #Russia
#Russia: The average price of Urals crude oil in October was a record not only this year but also for the past 12 years. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the average price of Urals crude, which is used to calculate taxes in the oil industry, rose by 10.1% in October to $101.46 per barrel, up from $92.08 in September. This represents a year-on-year increase of 94.59%. Last October, the price stood at $53.68 for the same volume. #oott itek.ru/news/oktyabrskaya-ce…
➡️ Record-high freight rates are squeezing both Indian refiners and Russian exporters.
➡️ Disruptions have injected major inefficiencies into crude logistics. The market is now rationing scarce tanker capacity as tightly as possible.
➡️ It’s not just the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Russian crude no longer moves to nearby Europe, but is going to distant India and even-more-distant China.
#OOTT #Russia #oil #tankers
Russian Urals crude for delivery to India in December flipped to a discount against dated Brent as high global prices and freight costs are squeezing refining margins, weighing on demand, three trading sources said.
Weaker differentials weigh on Russian oil sellers' profits already hit by extreme shipping costs and Western sanctions, eating into Russia's oil and gas revenue, though it has been supported by elevated global prices because of the Iran wa #oott marketscreener.com/news/russ…
➡️ Indeed, a Russian-Iranian gas pipeline has been in discussion for some time. We published a piece on it a couple of months ago.👇
➡️ Iran is short of gas, especially during cold snaps, Russia has excess production capacity, and there is even some Soviet-era infrastructure that could allow deliveries to begin at a low level pretty quickly.
➡️ That said, there are some significant obstacles to a major deal, mostly to do with Iran's extremely low domestic prices and the need for pretty significant new pipeline from southern Russia to Northern Iran to get to significant volumes.
#Russia #Iran #Gas
➡️ Kyrill Dmitriev officially calling the FT report of "diesel deal" shipments being diverted away from US "fake news".👇
➡️ Our view: The legal risk for US buyers is high, so the shipments are more likely to end up in Brazil, Cuba, or some other non-US territory with a recent history of buying Russian fuel.
#OOTT
xitter.gq/kadmitriev/status/2118…
➡️ Important point: Serbia is not a member of the EU and is not currently bound by EU rules requiring an end to Russian pipeline gas imports by no later Nov. 1, 2027.
➡️ Other small, non-EU countries include Bosnia & Herzegovina and North Macedonia. Between them, though, these 3 countries only consume ~3bcm of gas per annum, while TurkStream Line 2 - the last route for Russian pipeline gas into Europe - currently delivers ~17bcm per year.
#Gas #Russia
Gas contract extension with Belgrade to be discussed once Serbian govt formed - Russian Foreign Ministry interfax.com/newsroom/top-st…
Two thoughts on this article:
1️⃣ The Ryazan plant was last struck on Oct. 15, just before the hiatus on drone attacks began. This raid hints it may have returned to service, a 2-3 week break for repairs, pretty typical for a Russian refinery. 👇
2️⃣ We will be surprised if any of those 6 diesel shipments actually reach the US. Rather, look for them to be diverted to Brazil or other country with a proven willingness to take Russian-origin fuel.
#OOTT #Russia #diesel
Renewed refinery attacks deplete Russian diesel supply as US deal in focus
Ryazan refinery is Russia's second plant to be hit this week, according to video analysis
At least six Russian diesel cargoes are likely to make transatlantic voyages, Kpler and LSEG data show
First observed US-bound Russian diesel shipment is set to reach New York this weekend, Kpler says
#oott reuters.com/world/renewed-re…
➡️ Russia saw a huge jump in oil & gas tax revenues in October...as fully expected️. The two main drivers were:
1️⃣ The jump in Urals oil prices to ~$100/bbl in September entered the extraction tax formula, boosting it by 39%.
2️⃣ The quarterly EPT (Excess Profits Tax) collections came in.
➡️ Partially offsetting that was another jump in damper payments to refiners and fuel importers of 36% to Rb415bn vs. Rb306bn in Sept. and only Rb197bn in August.
➡️ For more details in the main drivers of Russian oil & gas budget revenues and expenses, see our report on the September numbers (which included our forecast for the just-released data). 👇
#Russia #Oil #Gas
#Russia: Federal budget oil and gas revenues in October 2026 amounted to 971.2 billion rubles, compared to 452.4 billion rubles in September and 424 billion rubles in August, according to data from the Ministry of Finance.
The mineral extraction tax brought in 1,122.6 billion rubles to the treasury in October, while in September this figure was 807 billion rubles. #oott itek.ru/news/neftegazovye-do…
➡️ Kazakhstan shipped 42kbd via Druzhba to Germany in 2025, and was on track to ship 60kbd in 2026, until a drone attack on the Samara pumping station led to a suspension of shipments in May.
➡️ Kazakhstan's logistical challenge is that all of its ~1.5mmbpd of crude exports have to go through another country, either Russia, China, or Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey. All of those options have their own issues.
➡️ Druzhba North shipped ~700kbd Russian crude to Germany prior to 2022. From 2023, flows dropped to under 50kbd, all of it from Kazakhstan, and now it's zero. Druzhba South delivered ~270kbd to countries like Hungary and Slovakia pre-crisis, but is now likely doing 150-200kbd.
#OOTT #Russia #Kazakhstan
#Kazakhstan Asks Russia to Reopen Druzhba Oil Route to Germany After Six-Month Halt #oott timesca.com/kazakhstan-asks-…
‼️ New Substack: Under the Radar - Russia’s Oil Production Decline Rates Accelerating
➡️ Today we look at a topic that gets very little attention - the modern decline rate for Russian oil production.
➡️ It once was ~15%, but an increasing reliance on horizontal wells and multi-stage fracs to tap tight oil plays, as one might expect, is affecting the numbers, and substantially.
#OOTT #Russia #Oil
➡️ So, of 4 tankers with "diesel deal" fuel bound for the US, 1 has diverted to Brazil, 1 is near the Mediterranean, and 2 are still heading to the Americas.
➡️ We expected the Brazil destination, as it and Turkey are the two largest buyers of Russian diesel.
➡️ We'd doubt either of the two remaining vessels will make landfall in the US. The whole world needs diesel, so why would any trader take the legal risk?
#OOTT #Russia
Trump diesel deal with Russia falters as US fuel supplies hit 20-year low
Two tankers change course in setback to White House gambit to lower fuel prices and shore up political support #oott ft.com/content/f66ebf48-6d09…
➡️ The second piece news today on Hormuz bypass pipelines: First Aramco, now the UAE.
➡️ Note the UAE is opening the project to other Persian Gulf producers. Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait are all stuck on the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz, and should be very interested (Kuwait has already expressed interest in joining new pipeline projects).
➡️ By bringing other countries onto the project, the UAE can both divide the capital costs and diversify the risk (an attack on the line would be an attack on all of its participants, not just the UAE).
#OOTT
The United Arab Emirates is considering a third oil-export pipeline that will deliver crude outside the Strait of Hormuz as the country aims to sharply reduce its dependence on the waterway.
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. is weighing building the pipeline to run from the UAE’s western coast to the port of Fujairah in the east. The pipeline could be open for use by third parties, and would add to an existing link and another conduit that’s scheduled to start next year, bolstering the ability to supply customers in case of future disruptions at Hormuz, they said.
#oott bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Interesting points made by Aramco's CEO (link in replies):
1️⃣ Preliminary engineering work to expand the East-West pipeline has begun.
2️⃣ The cost of the original East-West line was recouped in just 15 days when the Strait of Hormuz was closed.
3️⃣ Aramco can repair its pipelines 6x faster than its peers in the energy industry, and sources 90% of its materials locally.
Our view: Many of the bypass pipeline projects proposed in the Middle East are going to happen, and will materially change the nature of chokepoint risk in the region when completed.
#OOTT
➡️ Good article on European and US gas markets, their vastly different supply/demand balances and prices, and the weather risks faced by both. 👇
➡️ However, Russian LNG is not mentioned at all. It will be completely blocked from the EU as of Jan. 1st, a material loss for an already-undersupplied market.
#Russia #LNG
Natural gas: Two markets, two very different outlooks.
European gas prices have fallen 17% from last week's peak on Middle East peace hopes, but low storage levels, disrupted LNG supplies and winter demand remain major concerns. Meanwhile, US hedge funds have built their largest bearish natural gas positions since 2020, betting that a strong El Niño will limit heating demand.
With Europe competing against Asia for LNG supplies, weather forecasts and Middle East diplomacy will be key drivers in the months ahead. social.saxo/deensbc via @saxobank
‼️ New Substack report: Russian Oil & Gas Monthly - October 2026
➡️ The story of the month is the diesel deal and the (temporary) hiatus of drones strikes on refineries.
➡️ Elsewhere, Urals discounts widened on higher transport costs, and gas prices skyrocketed as Europe prepares to fully reject Russian LNG.
➡️ New subscribers get one Premium report free. Check it out👇.
#Russia #Oil #LNG
➡️ Volumes of oil shipped along Russia's Northern Sea Route are indeed rising, boosted by the September launch of Vostok Oil.
➡️ However, for the NSR to become more than a niche, seasonal supply option, Russia's oil producers will have to build a fleet of high ice-class tankers (Arc6/Arc7) that can navigate 2m ice-packs without icebreaker escort.
➡️ Currently, the country only has a handful of such ships (Vostok Oil only has a single Arc6 tanker, for example). So, for the near term shipping in the long winter navigation season will be an order of magnitude smaller than in the short summer navigation season.
#OOTT #Russia #Oil
#Russia has lifted its oil exports via the Northern Sea Route to a new high this year, with sanctioned tankers continuing to play a dominant role in the emerging Arctic trade.
During the NSR's navigational season in 2026, 13.2 million barrels of crude and petroleum products were loaded from Russian ports for shipments to Asia, compared with the previous record of 12.2 million barrels in 2025, and 10.8 million barrels in 2024, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea.
#oott spglobal.com/energy/en/news-…