Rooster Odds: 2026 forecast built on real polls, not hopes. America First, Rust Belt raised. First to news, first in the replies. Polls don't vote, people do.
Rust Belt, USA
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Rooster Odds for tonight, 50,000 sims.
Senate: GOP 41.2%, Dems 55.9%, an independent decides it 2.9%. Expected 49 R seats.
House: GOP 4.9%, Dems 95.0%. Expected 193 R seats.
Still close in the Senate. Polls don't vote, people do.
#NEW OHIO, MICHIGAN, WISCONSIN polls
Ohio Senate
🔵 Brown: 49%
🔴 Husted: 48%
Michigan Senate
🔵 El-Sayed: 51%
🔴 Rogers: 48%
Wisconsin Governor
🔵 Crowley: 53%
🔴 Tiffany: 47%
Ohio's a coin flip.
Research Co. | 10/30-11/1 | 450 LVs (decided)
#NEW MICHIGAN Governor poll
🔵 Benson: 52%
🔴 James: 39%
[Sept.: Benson 48%, James 43%]
NYT/Siena | 10/23-11/1 | 1,011 LVs
What got buried this weekend:
Two men who ran cash dead drops for Chinese spies got 30 months each.
Florida pharmacist gets 7.5 years for selling 335,000 oxycodone pills for cash.
DOJ is sending nearly $300M to St. Louis, Jacksonville, Baton Rouge and Jackson, MS to fight crime.
Moving to Texas to get away from California and then voting like you never left. I'll never understand it.
#NEW MICHIGAN and OHIO Senate polls
Michigan
🔵 El-Sayed: 53%
🔴 Rogers: 42%
[Sept.: El-Sayed 49%, Rogers 44%]
Ohio
🔵 Brown: 49%
🔴 Husted: 44%
[Sept.-Oct.: Brown 49%, Husted 46%]
Last Times/Siena polls before Tuesday.
NYT/Siena | 10/23-11/1 | LVs
The final Times/Siena polls of the campaign find Democrats ahead in all seven of the states likeliest to decide the Senate
nytimes.com/2026/11/01/us/po…
Pritzker went on Meet the Press to say Trump is trying to rig these elections. Trump won 43% of Illinois in 2024, and Republicans hold 3 of its 17 House seats under the map Pritzker signed.
Josh Shapiro says if Democrats win full control in Pennsylvania, he won't push progressive priorities. Democrats already hold the governor's office and the state House. The state Senate is what stands between them and a trifecta.
Gov. @JoshShapiroPA (D-PA) suggested he’ll stay away from pushing progressive priorities in Pennsylvania if Democrats hit a trifecta in the battleground state’s upcoming midterm elections.
Democrats currently control the governor’s seat and the state legislature’s lower chamber. Should his party secure power over the state Senate as well on Tuesday, Shapiro told Semafor he wouldn’t focus on advancing a stream of progressive bills, as Democrats in some swing states have done after winning the legislature.
MORE: trib.al/vKIhjnf
#NEW MICHIGAN Senate poll
🔵 El-Sayed: 51%
🔴 Rogers: 47%
[Sept. 22-Oct. 4: El-Sayed 49%, Rogers 48%]
Taken before Haley Stevens endorsed Rogers.
YouGov | 10/26-29 | 2,093 LVs
#NEW OHIO poll
Senate
🔵 Brown: 49%
🔴 Husted: 47%
[Oct. 21-22: Brown 47%, Husted 44%]
Governor
🔵 Acton: 49%
🔴 Ramaswamy: 46%
Senate gap tightening at the finish.
InsiderAdvantage | 10/29-30 | 1,200 LVs
InsiderAdvantage final survey of Ohio show’s a tightening U.S. Senate contest. See the report here: insideradvantage.com/final-i…
Tabs will be posted on X
Texas Senate is now the most expensive non-presidential race in U.S. history at $573 million, and the new Fox News poll has Paxton and Talarico tied at 49. Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. Turnout decides this one.
The Texas Senate race is now the most expensive non-presidential race in U.S. history, with a record $573 million pouring in.
The latest Fox News poll shows Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico tied at 49%, while voters on the ground share different views on who will come out on top.
One criticizes the Republican nominee, while another predicts Texas will remain red.
Download the Fox News app for more.
@brooketaylortv
Trump says a Canada deal is very close, with Canada dropping its tariffs on American farm goods and paying to build Keystone. If it holds, that's real money for farmers in Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin.
.@POTUS: "Our farmers were paying tremendous tariffs to send things to Canada. All those tariffs will be gone. There'll be no tariff... Part of the agreement is that our farmers will have to pay no tariffs."
#NEW OHIO early vote
Through Saturday: 1,677,822 [114% of 2022's entire early vote]
In person: 1,060,253 [193% of 2022]
By mail: 617,569
Ohio keeps showing up early.
Data: Ohio Common Ground, from Ohio SOS records
Hochul says Trump is the reason New York's power bills are so high. Pennsylvania has the same tariffs and the same war, and pays about 22 cents a kilowatt-hour to New York's 29.
NBC's final poll has the Democratic Party at 29% favorable, nine points below Republicans. People can be fed up and still not like what Democrats are selling.
#NEW OHIO Senate poll
🔵 Brown: 50%
🔴 Husted: 48%
Inside the margin with two days to go.
YouGov | 10/26-29 | LVs
Haley Stevens nearly won Michigan's Democratic Senate primary. Two days before the election, she spent Sunday morning at a Detroit church with Republican Mike Rogers, a day after El-Sayed's campaign told her to stay away from his events.
Mike Rogers was joined by Democratic Congresswoman Haley Stevens as a special guest at Perfecting Church this morning, just two days before the Midterm election. fox2detroit.com/news/haley-s…
#NEW PENNSYLVANIA mail ballots returned
🔵 Dem: 685,167 [+9.2K]
🔴 GOP: 267,039 [+2.5K]
⚪ Other: 106,533 [+1.9K]
1,058,739 of 1,388,604 requested
[Brackets: change since Saturday's update]
Ballots must be received by 8 PM Tuesday.
Data: PA Dept. of State
Anthropic dropped $900K on California Democrats days before the election, per a state filing. $525K went straight to the state party. The company that wants Washington writing the AI rules is also helping pick who writes them.
