🤠🧡🤟🏼 Not our first rodeo: this is how you win (and lose) the Texan two-step. Step one, build your fighter and pick your colours, closed when the play clock ran out yesterday. Only step two is left today: what's the deg, and is there a window to add a stop. Step 1: build your fighter and pick your colours. DONE. THE DIE IS CAST. Pole here since 2012: won 6, lost 6. Four of the six were lost on Saturday, not Sunday. And pole hasn't led lap 1 in 6 of the last 8. P2 led it 5 times. The fighter is a trade: one timed lap, top speed to overtake and defend, a car that isn't bad on its tyres. And at Austin the tyres go in sector 3. Turn 12 to the line is where the rears cook, where the stints fade a third of a second, and where the race is won. Pole is made in the Esses. Races are won in sector 3. This is a Texan showdown. Look into the 0.179s and it isn't a gap, it's a split decision.
Kimi's pole was made in the Esses: 0.18s in sector 2, only 0.06s in sector 3.
Max was quickest into T1 and T11, the braking zones that pass a car, and within 0.06s through sector 3.
His used-tyre Q2 lap had the same sector 3 as his new-tyre Q3 lap, to a hundredth. The new Soft bought him the middle of the lap and nothing at the end of it. The colours.
🔴 Team Soft: Max (and My call). 2 new Softs each.
🟡 Team Medium: Kimi. 0 new Softs.
Ferrari split. McLaren and Mercedes on the Medium. 
I'm Team Soft. If I'm wrong, bucket me with the Red Bulls of the world. Step 2: what's the deg, and is there a window to add a stop. Lap times...
🟢🟣 getting faster, going green or purple = 1 stop.
🟡🟡 getting slower, going yellow = 2 stop. That's it. That's the check. Fuel is worth 0.065s a lap here and the one-stop two-stop line is 0.07. Same number. So if the leader's times keep improving as the fuel comes out, deg is below fuel. If they go yellow by lap 12, deg has beaten fuel. And the lovely thing is you don't need a pit wall for it. You can read it from your sofa off the sector times on the timing screen. The driver can read it from inside the car off his dash. Same answer. 🤠 Then three windows. Around lap 20, 30, 40. Stay or box.
Box only if the times are yellow AND the gap behind is clear of cars you can't pass.
VSC before lap 15: stay out. The tyre won't go 45 laps. 2018. Play card and the full briefing on the Substack. 🤠🏎️ ruthbuscombe.substack.com/p/…

Every driver, team and fan has watched a race and thought at the end of it… What if? But did you know it’s one of the key parts of an F1 Strategist’s job to answer that for the races that never happened? What if Lewis had boxed under that VSC at Singapore? Would he have stood on the podium? What if Singapore had a safety car on lap 55? Would Max still have won? 😏 Because Teams learn as much from the races that never happened as the races they actually ran. 🙃 To prep for this year’s Race at COTA every teams Strategist will ask What If? about last years Race that Max won unchallenged. Charles started third and was the only car in the top Softs, he had high deg and fell away from the lead, but what if he’d started on Mediums? What if Lando had passed Charles? Could there have been a way to beat Max? 🤔 But let’s be honest it’s pretty hard to do by hand, and we never got invited to the F1 teams debrief’s either. So we made our own. Presenting the @amazonwebservices powered Insight Track. It runs on the same telemetry behind the @F1 broadcast, with around 300 sensors on each car sending 1.1 million data points per second. You pick a moment, ask your question, and an AI strategist built on Amazon Bedrock tests it against that exact moment in the data. Oh yes, The Insight Track, powered by AWS, Global AI Partner of F1, lets anyone step into the role of an F1 strategist to explore the 2025 United States Grand Prix. The experience recreates key overtakes, battles, and strategic decisions in a cinematic 3D environment (… same maths but more vibes than any race debrief I’ve been in 😂) built from real race data. What if? Just got answered. So if you’re a guest in the Paddock, a Team member or even a Driver who has been left wondering… What If? Come ask, and find out. Dare you. 😜 #AWSPartner

WE HAVE A RODEO 🤠🤠😭😭😭😭😭

BLESSED WITH A RODEO? 🥹🥹🤠🤠

Every driver, team and fan has watched a race and thought at the end of it… What if? 🤔 Teams have Strategists to reconstruct races that never happened to answer… What if? They had all the fun…. Until now. Now we have Track Insight built with @awscloud Global AI Partner of @F1 to answer 2023: Charles on pole, lap built in sector 3. On Sunday, 0.34s a lap slower through those last eight corners. Plank worn through. Disqualified. 
2024: Lando on pole, level with Charles in sector 3. Gives up 0.13s a lap there on Sunday. Charles wins from P4. 
2025: Max on pole, lap built evenly across all three sectors. Quickest car through sector 3 on Sunday by a quarter of a second a lap. Leads every lap. Three years. One rule. If you still own sector 3 on Sunday, you win. If you borrowed it on Saturday, you pay it back 56 times. So beware a narrow pole made in Sector 3. And watch the data very, very closely. Last year's race is in the Insight Track, powered by AWS. Same telemetry as the broadcast, 300 sensors a car, 1.1 million data points a second, and an AI strategist built on Amazon Bedrock to test your What If? against that exact moment. What if Charles had started on the Medium? What if Lando had got past him? Could anyone have beaten Max? (Same maths as a real debrief. Considerably more vibes.) Paddock guests, team members, drivers who are still wondering, you know where we are. 😜 #AWSPartner

One take, baby. It's Game Day. 🤟🏼🧡🏎️🏈🤠 Two games in Austin today. Qualifying at COTA at 4pm. Then my dear Longhorns take on Ole Miss at 6:30pm. Here's the tell at 4pm. Don't watch who takes pole. Watch where the pole lap is made. Beware the pole lap built in sector 3. Because what makes you fast in Qualifying here is a setup and a car with Red Hot Soft Tyres going Purple all the way to the line. But that same Play call that looks great on paper today can become a pick six tomorrow as your tyres overheat driving degradation up in the race. And in Texas, Race Pace is your QB. Two weeks ago in Singapore, I said Pole was King. It has never lost the lead into turn 1 in a dry race. The race was won on Saturday. It was. Austin is the opposite. Saturday is where you lose it, and you lose it in the last eight corners on any given Sunday. The play clock runs out at 4pm when the cars setup gets locked into Parc Ferme but the play to the Red Zone is tomorrow. Sector 3 runs from Turn 12 to the line. It's where the rear tyres cook, and it's where this race has been lost two years running. 2023: Charles takes pole, 0.11s up on Lando through sector 3. Race day, he's 0.34s a lap slower there. Fifth on race pace, then disqualified for plank wear. 2024: Lando takes pole, level with Charles in sector 3. Race day, 0.13s a lap down there. Charles wins from P4. Same pattern. A car that finds its Saturday lap in sector 3 is leaning on its rears to do it. That's a tenth you pay back 56 times tomorrow. A car that finds it in sector 1, on the straights, can also overtake. Same lap time. Different race. It's fourth and one. You don't decide in the locker room. You decide when you see the field. And at COTA, the car you qualify is the car you race. The play clock runs out today as the cars go into parc fermé. The red zone is tomorrow. Track Limits in play today and tomorrow. And watch out for a Bull that complains about a bump they can’t avoid in Qualifying but can dance around tomorrow in the racing line and is the fastest cowboy on the straights. 👀 Football, data, racing. Same game. A game of inches. Hook 'em. One take, baby. 🤟🏼🧡🏎️🏈🤠 So tonight, when the pole lap comes in, you'll know what to look for. If the lap is Pole made from a purple is in sector 3, the race isn't over. The play clock his zero. And the Game just started… Free Game Day Strategy Substack 🔗 ruthbuscombe.substack.com/p/…

Every driver, team and fan has watched a race and thought at the end of it… What if? But did you know it’s one of the key parts of an F1 Strategist’s job to answer that for the races that never happened? What if Lewis had boxed under that VSC at Singapore? Would he have stood on the podium? What if Singapore had a safety car on lap 55? Would Max still have won? 😏 Because Teams learn as much from the races that never happened as the races they actually ran. 🙃 To prep for this year’s Race at COTA every teams Strategist will ask What If? about last years Race that Max won unchallenged. Charles started third and was the only car in the top Softs, he had high deg and fell away from the lead, but what if he’d started on Mediums? What if Lando had passed Charles? Could there have been a way to beat Max? 🤔 But let’s be honest it’s pretty hard to do by hand, and we never got invited to the F1 teams debrief’s either. So we made our own. Presenting the @awscloud powered Insight Track. It runs on the same telemetry behind the @F1 broadcast, with around 300 sensors on each car sending 1.1 million data points per second. You pick a moment, ask your question, and an AI strategist built on Amazon Bedrock tests it against that exact moment in the data. Oh yes, The Insight Track, powered by AWS, Global AI Partner of F1, lets anyone step into the role of an F1 strategist to explore the 2025 United States Grand Prix. The experience recreates key overtakes, battles, and strategic decisions in a cinematic 3D environment (… same maths but more vibes than any race debrief I’ve been in 😂) built from real race data. What if? Just got answered. So if you’re a guest in the Paddock, a Team member or even a Driver who has been left wondering… What If? Come ask, and find out. Dare you. 😜 #PaidPartnership

Meanwhile at the Front.

Ferrari need to swap NOW. The Soft is faster AND lower degradation. Don’t just assume it’s a 2 stop and he’s not a threat if a SC happens. Cars on Soft now need to take a rubbish Medium or an even more rubbish Hard.

The Soft is so good (which is why I wanted it for the end)