Run it back turbo | Pair-trading at @pear_protocol | CKSG #4 | prev: @laevitas1
Singapore
Joined April 2018
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I know it's interim...but asking a CFO to stand in for the most prized company in the world right now is mind-boggling.
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My winners/ losers pick from this NVDA Jensen fallout.
What's yours?
Routing through @pear_protocol
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Did nothing and still won.
I set this up weeks ago on @pear_protocol and never looked at it since. Trust in structural weakness !
I expect @variational_io to settle at $3 - $4.7B FDV after the initial TGE. That'll be $95-$150 / point.
(This is before any bigger news that's going to come from the team in the next few weeks.)
Based it off Aster's and Lighter's OI and 24h Volume (leaning more towards OI).
OI is the stickier metric here.
And of course we can't compare to Hyperliquid because there's no EVM ecosystem of apps to speak off, in Aster Vari and Lighter unlike HyperEVM.
Data from @DefiLlama
Softbank is tradfi’s 3AC?
SOFTBANK PLUNGES 59% AS DEBT-FUELED AI BETS UNRAVEL
SoftBank shares fell another 10.8% Friday, extending losses to 59% since early June.
The company added $40.4 billion in debt over 12 months to fund AI investments, including $64 billion in OpenAI.
Meanwhile, Arm shares have plunged 51% since June 30, weakening SoftBank's asset backing as credit-default swaps rise and bond prices fall.
SoftBank's reported leverage was 13%, below its self-imposed 25% limit, suggesting a substantial remaining cushion.
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now the world will know why puts trade at a premium...because stocks at 4tn mcap are worth protecting
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I thought my port on @variational_io is done for. Then my rwa shorts caught the train. (my longs lost much lesser)
What's going on that caused such a huge blow off?
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Getting more competitive which is great !
Incredibly happy to announce that @ValkyrieFinance has chosen Pear's Vault Infra to publicly run his L/S book
I have followed him for many years here: t.me/valkyrie_finance_channe…
Vault: vaults.pear.garden/0xdf6917e…
"The asset management layer for Hyperliquid" 🫡
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My prediction: saylor mstr gets distressed, citadel blackrock jpm bail them out and takes over everything on the cheap.
Decentralised money in the hands of centralised institutions.
Looks like Saylor is gonna be a problem again
* sep '27 he owes $1B if he can't get MSTR above $183
* mar '28 he owes $2B if he can't get MSTR above $433
* jun '28 he owes $1.5B if he can't get MSTR above $672
* then there's another $2B+ in potential payments out to jun '29
^ Assuming he cannot recover the share price, MSTR will be out of cash by March of '28. But even worse, they're only 5 months away from having less than the 12 months cash in reserve they promised to maintain earlier this year. *expect them to charitably interpret their USD reserve policy moving forward
> So why assume he can't get the share price where it needs to be?
Honestly maybe he gets bailed out by Bitcoin on his upcoming September converts. But keep in mind Microstrategy has had negative Bitcoin yield this year. BTC per share is down 3.7% this year. Common holders are getting brutally diluted and market stress makes this worse (BTC yield was -11% in Q3 alone). With this class of management, I do not see how Saylor convinces anybody Microstrategy should trade at a premium to Bitcoin - which means to get MSTR up ~40% to $183, you're going to need to see Bitcoin well above ~$107k. Getting this pig back to $433 then $672 for the two following converts seems essentially impossible to me unless Bitcoin goes on a sun run.
> So can't he raise more cash and kick the can down the road again?
Unfortunately the powers that be have decided they've had enough of Saylor and he's getting kicked out of the indices. Expect the problem to only compound as the conditions get worse
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Been seeing a lot of FUD on @variational_io.
A lot of the FUD misses the point.
About users not getting the best prices.
About this and that.
I don't like meaningless bantering.
I like to see facts and data.
The all-in execution costs for RWAs is actually gearing better and better from what I can see on rwa.perpetualpulse.xyz/ by @hansolar21.
A lot of things on Vari are still being built out.
As a non-technical user myself there will be a lot of things and decisions I will not understand about.
But i know it's going to be exciting.
gVAR.
ALT https://rwa.perpetualpulse.xyz/exchanges
Yes I know cos I read the docs to understand why @variational_io was a differentiating product from every other perp dex
47 Pts | 910K Volume | 40K OI Avg
About 33k volume per point.
32.3K accounts received points this week, still one of the highest active weeks.
Users are not leaving and they are trading on @variational_io.
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