Sports and Markets Enthusiast | Energy Engineer in Diversified Sales & Investment Banking | Views Expressed Are Solely My Own and Not Financial Advice | DYODD
Calgary, Alberta
Joined September 2015
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It’s official, CanAsia $CEC.V (~$0.40/sh), which already has $0.48/sh in cash & cont. payments, is awarded its Thai concession, offsetting mgmt’s assets from PanOrient $POE.V, which sold for ~$50 MM at ~1,000bbl/d, which we are setup to achieve now, likely without any dilution!
CanAsia $CEC.V: at $0.36, I get a $0.15 dist. + carry $0.11 in net cash post dist. + carry $0.23 in ‘contingent cash’ from the JV sale = $0.49; so the market is PAYING ME $0.13 for the team, track record, and pulse to secure their old Thai block without equity in next few months?
Link to $CEC.V Concession Award: newswire.ca/news-releases/ca…
Link to Prior Sale of PanOrient $POE.V to Dialog for $50 MM and the creation of CanAsia $CEC.V: boereport.com/2022/06/06/pan…
For those following $CEC.V CanAsia, looks like Thai local media has communicated their block award, now we wait for the Company press release.
dmf.go.th/public/list/data/d…
CanAsia $CEC.V: at $0.36, I get a $0.15 dist. + carry $0.11 in net cash post dist. + carry $0.23 in ‘contingent cash’ from the JV sale = $0.49; so the market is PAYING ME $0.13 for the team, track record, and pulse to secure their old Thai block without equity in next few months?
CanAsia $CEC.V: at $0.36, I get a $0.15 dist. + carry $0.11 in net cash post dist. + carry $0.23 in ‘contingent cash’ from the JV sale = $0.49; so the market is PAYING ME $0.13 for the team, track record, and pulse to secure their old Thai block without equity in next few months?
CanAsia $CEC.V ($33 MM mkt cap) sells KIGAM JV for up to $55 MM ($30 MM today, $10 MM upon first oil, $15 MM in a retained royalty) and is to distribute $17 MM (a 50% RoC) back to shareholders and fund its ventures back into Thailand. 👏
newswire.ca/news-releases/ca…
CanAsia $CEC.V ($33 MM mkt cap) sells KIGAM JV for up to $55 MM ($30 MM today, $10 MM upon first oil, $15 MM in a retained royalty) and is to distribute $17 MM (a 50% RoC) back to shareholders and fund its ventures back into Thailand. 👏
newswire.ca/news-releases/ca…
$CEC.V ($35 MM mkt cap - $10 MM W/C = $25 MM EV): KIGAM JV gives $26 MM non-dil. cash to fund to 1,200 bbl/d in ‘28, which self funds to 5,000 bbl/d in ‘32. What’s a buyer pay for 100% of >$750 MM in “funded” 2C resource & 50% of tech? >>$25 MM EV, plus entry back into Thai soon?
$CEC.V ($35 MM mkt cap - $10 MM W/C = $25 MM EV): KIGAM JV gives $26 MM non-dil. cash to fund to 1,200 bbl/d in ‘28, which self funds to 5,000 bbl/d in ‘32. What’s a buyer pay for 100% of >$750 MM in “funded” 2C resource & 50% of tech? >>$25 MM EV, plus entry back into Thai soon?
Reminder: CanAsia $CEC.V Q1 said it could be rewarded back its Thai blocks “any time” (in 2Q). In ‘22, it sold 1,000 bbl/d for US$52 MM at lower oil prices. This time, maybe a small drill commit to grow to ~1-2 Mbbl/d, >US$20 MM CF & >US$60 MM NPV in 2-3 years? #rinseandrepeat
This is way better than I hoped for CanAsia $CEC.V: $26 MM of non-dilutive capital for a ~$15 MM mkt cap to restart a 600 bbl/d thermal project that can now fully finance itself to 20,000 bbl/d. Next up, hoping a big move into Thailand development!
newswire.ca/news-releases/ca…
Think $CVVY.TO 2027E consensus is too low: Analysts model US$350/t sulphur; they’re unhedged, spot is US$1,150/t!
2026E: 67% hedged at <US$250/t, $165 MM EBITDA, 3.5x EV/EBITDA
2027E: 50% hedged at ~US$500/t, $392 MM EBITDA, 0.6x EV/EBITDA
3.0x EV/EBITDA = $4.50/sh (+175%).
This is way better than I hoped for CanAsia $CEC.V: $26 MM of non-dilutive capital for a ~$15 MM mkt cap to restart a 600 bbl/d thermal project that can now fully finance itself to 20,000 bbl/d. Next up, hoping a big move into Thailand development!
newswire.ca/news-releases/ca…
CanAsia $CEC.V finally got a bid yday, up +50%. Last year Q4 results out mid-March so could see an ops update soon? Recall Thailand govt announcement was “expected in January 2026” and Sawn lake asset dispo process was to continue “into YE25.” Hopefully an eventful Q upcoming. 🤞
Buffalo $BUFF.V out w/ the PEA for the Disley projecting, coming in at a AT NPV8 of US$1.1 BN w/ a 30% project IRR and steady-state annal EBITDA of US$250 MM; a strong catalyst while some peers trade at ~0.11x PEA NPV, which would imply potential upside to >$2.00/sh.
Quick follow-up on the Buffalo $BUFF.V story; read below, but in summary, the upcoming PEA could underpin a material re-rating in the stock —> exciting time to be involved post a successful drilling campaign.
Quick follow-up on the Buffalo $BUFF.V story; read below, but in summary, the upcoming PEA could underpin a material re-rating in the stock —> exciting time to be involved post a successful drilling campaign.
CanAsia $CEC.V finally got a bid yday, up +50%. Last year Q4 results out mid-March so could see an ops update soon? Recall Thailand govt announcement was “expected in January 2026” and Sawn lake asset dispo process was to continue “into YE25.” Hopefully an eventful Q upcoming. 🤞
Will be interesting in next few months as catalysts play out on $BUFF.V (EV: $27 MM): drilling results, resource report, and PEA by April, then bank debt and a small equity injection mid-year provides financing to first commercial prod by YE26 (~$15 MM/yr in steady-state NOI)!
$BUFF.V Could explode 5x-7x from here!
On a fully diluted basis, 109.5M shares at C$0.32 implies a market cap of ~C$35M and an enterprise value of ~C$27M (net of C$7.8M cash). Post-PEA, assume a C$30M raise split evenly between project debt and equity at C$0.50/share, issuing 30M new shares for ~140M fully diluted.
At 125kt/year and a C$200/t netback, gross operating cash flow is C$25M. After sustaining capex, provincial taxes and royalties (~C$6M), free cash flow could be approx. C$19M. At a 6x multiple - a discount to established producers reflecting single-asset and technology risk - that implies C$114M enterprise value, or ~C$0.71/share after netting debt: a 2.2x return from current levels.
Scale to 250kt/year (funded by offtake partner, no incremental dilution) and FCF roughly doubles to ~C$42M. At the same multiple, equity value reaches ~C$237M, or C$1.69/share - a 5.3x return with no change in potash prices.
The table below stress-tests across three scenarios varying netback (C$150–250/t), FCF conversion, and valuation multiple (5–7x):
open.substack.com/pub/claddi…
$BUFF.V ($20 MM EV, $5 MM cash) confirms multi-member potash deposit on Sask Disley project. Tons of fully-funded “catalysts” upcoming, all before mid-2026: seismic, assays, NI 43-101 resource report, and a PEA. Time for lift off! 🚀 finance.yahoo.com/news/buffa…
Following up on this operational update, Highwood $HAM.V first well from the recent program makes its debut on ATB’s Top Well List for December producing >1,400 bbl/d. Will be interesting to see how the second well performs when it qualifies for the list next month.
Highlighting Highwood $HAM.V ops update: 2x Wilson Ck Basal Belly River wells test 1,500 boe/d (60% oil) & 1,110boe/d (81% oil); drilled 10% below ~$5.0 MM AFE cost and at >3x type curve = <3 mo. payout, RR > 3.5x, & w/ $13 MM NPV a 2.6x P/I ratio. Mgmt quotes 30 undrilled locs.
Highlighting Highwood $HAM.V ops update: 2x Wilson Ck Basal Belly River wells test 1,500 boe/d (60% oil) & 1,110boe/d (81% oil); drilled 10% below ~$5.0 MM AFE cost and at >3x type curve = <3 mo. payout, RR > 3.5x, & w/ $13 MM NPV a 2.6x P/I ratio. Mgmt quotes 30 undrilled locs.
For those interested, here is the Highwood $HAM.V operational update research report by Ventum Financial:
