Sports Card Ripping Teacher

2026 Allen & Ginter X Deep Dive Quite an action-packed day in Topps land. Even after THREE back-to-back free loan queues (AKA pre-orders), they still somehow found the time to drop a tiny odds sheet for a tiny little product. To me, this one is probably more interesting than it should be. Allen & Ginter X will be a super limited product with not much going on as far as odds, but there will definitely be some sneaky low print runs in here as a result. If you read my content, you probably know how much I love my sneaky low print runs. Welcome to the often overlooked Allen & Ginter X. Part 1: The Basics Allen & Ginter X, not to be confused with Allen & Ginter, is set to launch next Wednesday, November 11. No pre-order period on this one...it's just going straight to release day. Allen & Ginter X could very accurately be called Allen & Ginter Black as it's simply a darker version of the base set. Despite the similarities, there is very little overlap in the checklists. The only cards from regular A&G that you should be able to pull in A&G X are the Inserts & Rookie Design Variations. Everything else is exclusive to the X format. Each box consists of 18 packs of 8 cards. Though we don't yet know pricing, last year's was $180/box at release, which was considerably higher than regular A&G. I would expect nothing different from this year. 2026 A&G dropped at $160/box, so I would expect A&G X to drop around $200/box, possibly slightly higher. Part 2: Production Numbers Total cards in the product: 1,795,200 2025 A&G X- 1,009,152 YOY- +77.9% On the surface, a nearly 80% increase in production over 2025 looks daunting. But the production run on this product, even after an 80% increase is still quite limited. Total Boxes Produced: 12,467 (1,039 cases) 2025 A&G X- 7,008 boxes (584 cases) At ~1k cases, production is similar to that of an average Sapphire release. OK, production is up. Ho hum. So are 98% of other products this year. But we're not even to the fun stuff yet. Here's what those nearly 1.8m cards consist of and how that compares to last year: 2026 Total Inserts- 164,560 2025 Total Inserts- 150,584 YOY- +9.3% Keep in mind, there are no inserts that I would call desirable in A&G X. They are some of the exact same inserts found in regular A&G. And there are none that would be mistaken for "rare". 2026 Total Parallels- 241,156 2025 Total Parallels- 148,503 YOY- +62.4% A vast majority (over 224K) of the parallels in 2026 A&G X are the Mini Blacks that fall 1 per pack. This is no different than last year, except with the extra production and shortened checklist of 300 as opposed to 350, the print run of these more than doubled. Like 2025, there are no Relics in A&G X. But if you know me, you know I like to bury the lead... 2026 Total Autos- 25,059 2025 Total Autos- 9,669 YOY- +159% To me, this is the most fascinating number in the entire breakdown. Total production increased ~80%. That is true. But Total Autos essentially 2.5xed. Let me detail what this means. Topps states 1 auto per box of A&G X. Based on the odds they gave us, there are over 25k Autos in a <12.5k box product. Meaning the average autos per box should be right at 2. Does this mean 2 autos are guaranteed? Not at all. Could odds still be off? Absolutely. But within the odds, there is nothing that stands out as being a mistake. Usually, when that's the case, I can tell, and adjust accordingly. It would not surprise me in the least to see 2-3 autos being pulled regularly from boxes of A&G X. This is nothing new for X. Last year, there were also a considerable number of extra autos in the product. But average autos per box calculated to 1.4, still quite a ways off from 2 per box. With extra autos comes extra auto signers. This year, just like we saw in regular A&G, the baseball auto checklist checks in at an absurd 177 players, up from 148 last year. Non-baseball auto subjects are up slightly to 59 signers from 52 last year. Fortunately, there are a ton of big baseball names, both active and retired. Though I can't co-sign for the impressiveness of the non-baseball signers as that's not really my jam. Part 3: Heat Map Expected Hit Rate Per Box: Autos- ~2 Parallels- 19.3 (Including 18 Mini Black Parallels per Box. Technically, I suppose every single black base card could be considered a parallel since they are alternate versions of regular A&G base. But for our purposes, I'm not counting them as such.) Inserts- 13.2 Numbered cards- 1 per 6.9 boxes (Though this sounds abysmal, keep in mind, aside from Autos, the only numbered cards possible in the product are Mini Reds /5 and Mini Silvers /1. At this point, I'm not sure if Mini Chromes are numbered. Last year, they were unnumbered with a print run of ~10 copies. This year, it's possible they could be /25. If that's the case, then numbered will fall every 2.9 boxes on average. Regardless, if you pull a numbered card, you're hitting something legitimately scarce. There is no /199 nonsense in A&G X. Part 4: A Squatch Record In more important news, we have a new leader in the clubhouse for longest official parallel name that I've ever encountered: MINI NON BASEBALL AUTOGRAPH CARDS FRAMED MINI SIZE SILVER FRAME BLACK GOLD INK PARALLEL Yes, all that is the actual name. What it surpasses, I can't say I remember. But I assure you its name wasn't as long as that monstrosity. Part 5 would normally be a Value Map detailing all the "$ Per" Metrics. Since pricing is still a mystery, I'll have to add that next week when Topps drops the price. However, there is one thing I want to highlight that should indicate how good or bad this release is. And it has to do with my favorite metric- Quality Hits. This includes any parallel or insert /100 or less, any case hit or rarer insert, and any Auto /100 or less. The numbers say you should see ~2.35 Quality Hits Per Box. On average, two of these should be autos...and ALL the autos are scarce. Assuming drop price is $200/box, then the $ Per Quality Hit would be $85.11. Even at $220/box, that comes out to $93.62. This is EXCELLENT for a baseball product. And better than Update Jumbos at drop price, which previously held the best $ Per Quality Hit of any Baseball format this year at $102.90. But there is one caveat. If there happen to be some shenanigans with the odds, and we're not actually seeing boxes commonly produce 2 autos, then this will be a moot point and deflate the product immensely. So it's a bit of a leap of faith at this point. Do we trust the odds...or not? Topps has pleasantly surprised us before. They've also profoundly disappointed us on more than one occasion. My guess? We're good to go. But I've been accused of over-trusting the odds on occasion. So take that with a grain of salt. Part 6: What Would the Squatch Do? First, let me be clear...I'm not a fan of typical Allen & Ginter. I probably made that abundantly clear in my A&G breakdown, but it bears repeating here. Not to alienate any followers, because I know there are some A&G purists out there who embrace all the oddities. They are just not for me. I like cards of things I like. I don't need cards of instruments and how to say hello in 50 languages. But it's fine if you do. Now, I'm not a complete curmudgeon. A&G has had some wickedly cool stuff and wild offerings over the years. From Dinosaur Fossils, DNA & teeth, to 1/1 Hair Relics, Topps has done things with A&G that you won't find in any other set. And I applaud them for it. I think the Daguerrotype Autos are phenomenal and would love to have one. But unfortunately, none of that wicked cool stuff is in here. But I'm still buying at drop and here's why: 1) Despite the production increase, it's still very limited. 2) Black cards are way cooler than white. 3) Sneaky low print runs. But most of all, I really hope these odds hold up. Because 2 Autos on average in a box that only claims one is about all it takes for me to recommend a product. Assuming it starts at ~$200, I think there's an excellent chance this product goes up a fair amount. 2025 Ginter X currently sits at $300/box at Big Bully resellers. And this year is better than last and should be at least that much, making it a safe stash play, not to mention a pretty fun rip. @Topps, Let's try to make a habit of this under-promise and over-deliver thing. It's much more becoming than some of the shenanigans you've been up to lately. Part 7: Print Runs Base A&G X Production: ~4,550 ea Unnumbered Parallels: Ginter X Chrome Parallel- ~125 ea Mini Black Parallel- ~750 ea Mini Ginter X Chrome- ~25 ea Unnumbered Inserts: These are also in the regular A&G release, so first I'll list how many additional copies are added by A&G X, then how many total copies of each parallel there are. 50 Ways to Say Hello (50 card CL)- ~320 -----> Total ~11,695 ea Musical Methods (20 card CL)- ~320 ------> Total ~11,695 ea N34 (50 card CL)- ~320 ------> Total ~11,695 ea N43 (20 card CL)- ~2,245 -----> Total ~94,125 ea Rookie Design Variations (20 card CL)- ~320 ----> Total ~11,695 ea Wicked Power (30 card CL)- ~2,495 ----> Total ~95,500 ea Autos: Please note: I fully believe every auto will be numbered. However, I also believe the serial numbers will vary, even among the same parallel. What I am listing will be the average print run of each parallel. So, when you see a Caglianone /15, when I have the PR listed at ~32, that is why. These are not precise, but should give you an idea as to general scarcity of each variation. Baseball Mini Silver Frame Black Parallel (177 card CL)- ~55 ea Baseball Mini Black Frame Black Parallel- ~32 ea Baseball Mini Silver Frame Black Gold Ink- ~10 ea Non-Baseball Mini Silver Frame Black Parallel (59 card CL)- ~85 ea Non-Baseball Mini Black Frame Black Parallel- ~45 ea Non-Baseball Mini Silver Frame Black Gold Ink- ~10 ea #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026AllenGinterX

2026 Bowman's Best University Football Deep Dive If you're a college football fan and prefer to not have your university products defiled by NFL players, then Bowman's Best is one of your last safe spaces. The question is: did Topps give you a legitimate, actual product that you can be excited to jump into? Or did they warm up some leftovers because they know you don't have anything else to eat? I think I can help you figure out that answer to that. I have some numbers. Let's see where they lead us. Welcome to 2026 Bowman's Best University Football. Part 1: The Basics Product drops Friday, October 30th at 11am CT. As the only format for this release, Hobby Boxes consist of 4 packs of 10 cards with a drop price of $260/box, up from pre-release pricing of $240/box. This represents an increase of only $10 over last year's drop price. Part 2: Production Numbers Total Cards in the Product: 1,498,080 2025 Bowman's Best U: 1,450,000 YOY: +3.3% Total Boxes: Hobby- 37,452 (3,121 cases) 2025: 36,250 (3,021 cases) Though total production is up only a smidge from last year, this product has actually changed quite a bit more than it may appear. Let me show you what I mean. Total Parallels: 2026- 309,126 2025- 208,914 YOY: +48% The only added parallels are Blue X-fractors /150 & Gold Lava /50. The vast majority of the extra parallels come from the Base Refractors more than doubling in print run, which in itself I don’t love. But overall, these are not egregious additions. They didn’t pull a 2025 Topps Chrome and pump up every unnumbered parallel under the sun. This is reasonable, and I think it is an improvement. Total Inserts: 2026- 456,742 2025- 319,275 YOY: +43.1% Total Rare Inserts: 2026- 5,037 2025- 3,165 YOY: +59.1% Total Autos: 2026- 154,671 2025- 145,616 YOY: +6.2% For a product that only increased by 3% in overall size, Topps sure found a way to cram in gobs more goodies. There are so many more Parallels, Inserts, & Autos that Base Card Print Runs decreased by almost 2,000 copies per card from last year. You'll find that everything worth pulling will now fall at higher rates than they did before. Like a Senior that shows up in the fall with 30 pounds of added muscle, this thing hit the juice hard over the offseason. If you liked last year's Bowman's Best U, you should love this year's version. Part 3: Heat Map Expected Hit Rates Per Box: Autos- 4 (Including 1 Relic Auto) Parallels- 8.25 (Including 4 Base Refractors & 1 Shimmer- Up from 5.75 last year) Inserts- 12 (Up from 8 last year) Numbered Cards- 3.5 (Up from 3 last year) % of Numbered Autos- 70.6% Rare Inserts: Best of the Best & Campus Crests both return from last year. In addition, we have Best of High School Tribute, Best of Mascots, & Best of Stadiums. The combined rate to pull any of these Rare Inserts is 1 per 7.4 boxes (1.6 per 12-box case). This is up from 1 per 11.5 boxes last year. Part 4: Value Map $/Card- $6.50 $/Parallel- $31.50 $/Auto- $65.00 $/# Card- $74.25 $/# Auto- $92.09 $/Quality Hit- $97.46 Part 5: Takeaways The numbers are solid. For a college product to sell, they kind of need to be. Of course, I especially dig the sub $100 per Quality Hit. This means nearly every box will produce multiple low numbered or rare hits and autos. College products aren’t known for earth-shattering singles values, so it needs all the help it can get. This is a great start. Though I'm not innately familiar with the strength of names on the checklist, I have to imagine Arch Manning is a bigger name than anyone on last year's checklist. And with rumblings of multiple QBs with 1st Round talent potentially declaring for next year's draft, I have to think this checklist is deeper than last year's as well. If you're bitter about Bowman Chrome U going mainstream, adding all the NFL names, and doubling in price, I think you can breathe easy. I low-key thought Bowman's Best U was a better product than Bowman Chrome U last year. Much more limited print run, shorter checklist, double the autos, and simply more fun to rip for only a slightly higher price point. The one slight knock on Best when compared to Chrome is Chrome singles seem to hold a bit more value, but even that is debatable. In almost every way, Best was a better product last year. But now? You're good. Bowman Chrome U sold its soul. The value just isn't there anymore. That ship has sailed. But Bowman's Best University is here to make sure you don't miss it one bit. This is the case where the rebound chick is better than the ex ever dreamed of being. Part 6: What Would the Squatch Do? I'm not here to tell you this is a must stash, that it's absolutely going to skyrocket in price. That's generally just not what college product does. Despite that, the cheapest you can find a box of 2025 Best U is right at $300 on ebay. Those were $250 on release...and not particularly tough to get for a quite limited product. This isn’t a huge jump, but it’s something. And last year’s product was weaker. Of course pre-sales at Big Bully resellers are already at $310/box before the product drops later today at $260 direct. If there were a College Football product that is a safe stash, I'm going to get a little crazy and say this is the one. I mean, boxes will be provably juicier, the checklist is likely more loaded, and there are more of all the things that make a product fun. Will I be ripping? Yes. Will I make a valiant attempt to stash some, but probably end up ripping those too? Also yes. These should be a blast to rip and it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see sealed boxes creep up significantly in price...at least until next year's draft class starts showing up in Chrome NFL products. So as William Wallace proclaimed in Braveheart... "They may take our Chrome, but they will never take our freedom!" Or something like that. College football folks, you're good. As long as you have Bowman's Best U, you still have your freedom. Part 7: Print Runs Base Card Production: ~5,775 ea (down from ~7,762 ea last year) Unnumbered Parallels: Refractor- ~1,500 ea (up from ~725 ea last year) Shimmer- ~375 ea Unnumbered Inserts: Bowman Showpieces (35 card CL)- ~4,280 ea Bowman Showpieces Shimmer- ~390 ea Send the House (10 card CL)- ~3,000 ea Send the House Shimmer- ~375 ea Tone Setters (20 card CL)- ~3,745 ea Tone Setter Shimmer- ~375 ea Workhorse (35 card CL)- ~4,280 ea Workhorse Shimmer- ~390 ea Rare Inserts: Best of High School Tribute (2 card CL)- ~25 ea Best of Mascots (20 card CL)- ~50 ea Best of Stadiums (9 card CL)- ~50 ea Best of the Best (34 card CL)- ~45 ea Campus Crests (34 card CL)- ~45 ea Unnumbered Autos: Behind the Seams Dual Relic Autos (23 card CL)- ~150 ea Best of 2026 Auto Refractors (94 card CL)- ~200 ea Bowman Showpieces Auto Variation Refractors (34 card CL)- ~150 ea Prospect Relic Autos (73 card CL)- ~130 ea Super Saturday Signatures Refractors (30 card CL)- ~150 ea Workhorse Auto Variation Refractors (32 card CL)- ~150 ea #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026BowmansBestUniversityFootball