Sam

WHY THE MARKET MAY STILL BE MISUNDERSTANDING $ASTS The biggest takeaway from $SPCX buying the old 800 MHz Nextel spectrum is not that AST suddenly became less attractive, it is that Elon just validated the exact scarcity AST has been built around from the beginning. Low band spectrum is incredibly valuable for direct to device because it penetrates buildings and travels farther than higher frequency spectrum, which is why SpaceX was willing to buy a block that T Mobile had spent years trying to divest. When the largest launch company in the world calls this type of spectrum the “last critical piece” for complete phone coverage, it reinforces that the real bottleneck in satellite cellular is not simply putting satellites in orbit, it is getting access to the right spectrum once they are there. Thats where I think AST remains misunderstood because AST did not build its network around owning a giant standalone spectrum portfolio the way SpaceX increasingly is. Its model is built around partnering with terrestrial carriers and using spectrum they already control, which gives AST access to low band frequencies from partners like AT&T and Verizon without needing to spend billions assembling those licenses itself. SpaceX is effectively spending enormous amounts of capital to recreate a spectrum position that AST can access through carrier relationships, so I would not look at this and conclude AST has suddenly lost the direct to device race when the transaction actually proves how valuable those carrier partnerships are. The other important piece is that SpaceX buying more spectrum does not solve the physical bottleneck AST still has to execute against, which is getting enough BlueBird capacity into orbit to turn carrier spectrum into usable bandwidth. AST already has demand, carrier relationships and access to frequencies that work well for direct to phone service, while the remaining question is how quickly it can launch enough satellites to convert that spectrum into real capacity. Thats why I keep coming back to the idea that AST’s biggest risk is execution rather than demand, because every new spectrum transaction like this makes the scarcity of the underlying resource more obvious while leaving the company’s core path unchanged. So I actually think the SpaceX deal strengthens the long term AST thesis even if the headline initially looks competitive because it tells us that the most valuable players in the industry are now racing to secure the same low band assets AST has been architected around for years. SpaceX is spending billions to assemble spectrum, carriers are increasingly looking for satellite partners and governments want resilient direct to device coverage, which all point toward the same conclusion that low band cellular from space is becoming strategic infrastructure rather than a niche service. The market still tends to view AST as another satellite company trying to compete with Starlink, while I think the better framing is that AST owns one of the few architectures capable of turning scarce carrier spectrum into direct broadband capacity from orbit, and that scarcity is becoming more valuable every time somebody else pays billions to secure it.