@SamotsvetyF

Forecasting on important questions

samotsvety.org
Joined September 2022
  • Tweets30
  • Following11
  • Followers1.3K
6Media
Samotsvety Forecasting retweeted
Eli Lifland
@eli_lifland6 Apr 2025
I’ve been excited to see all the discussion of AI 2027, positive and negative. Here I'll respond to some themes of the criticisms we've gotten (this is all my opinion, not the team’s): (1) It’s just speculative sci-fi (2) 2027 is too soon (3) We’re pushing the doomer agenda 🧵
Daniel Kokotajlo
@DKokotajlo3 Apr 2025
"How, exactly, could AI take over by 2027?" Introducing AI 2027: a deeply-researched scenario forecast I wrote alongside @slatestarcodex, @eli_lifland, and @thlarsen
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Thread with some highlights from Sentinel's global risks weekly roundup 🧵
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Samotsvety Forecasting retweeted
Tolga Bilge
@TolgaBilge_13 Feb 2024
Nice article by Dylan Matthews in Vox on @SamotsvetyF, one of the groups I forecast with.
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Samotsvety Forecasting retweeted
Eli Lifland
@eli_lifland13 Feb 2024
Has been a fun ride with an awesome group of people. Looking forward to the coming years and appreciate Dylan’s work on the article.
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Samotsvety Forecasting retweeted
Molly Hickman@celloMolly13 Feb 2024
Very nice piece about our forecasting team @SamotsvetyF from Dylan Matthews at @voxdotcom.
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Important work by @TolgaBilge_ and forecasters on the chance of AI catastrophe and how we can avoid it
Tolga Bilge
@TolgaBilge_18 Oct 2023
We just published with @SamotsvetyF, a group of expert forecasters, a forecasting report with 3 key contributions: 1. A predicted 30% chance of AI catastrophe 2. A Treaty on AI Safety and Cooperation (TAISC) 3. P(AI Catastrophe|Policy): the effects of 2 AI policies on risk 🧵
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I find this hillarious. Personally I'm a fan of Samotsvety remaining a "there is this group with a vaguely Russian name. and they are good at predicting stuff, I promise, they're not scammers", but it looks like I'm going to get outvoted.
Manifold
@ManifoldMarkets11 Oct 2023
.@dylanmatt describing the challenges of citing superforecasters and prediction markets in journals. This is just one point of many. More challenges and proposed solutions in the full talk! youtu.be/xMVaEYMp7_o?si=rocc…
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Samotsvety forecasters did not fact-check this.
Nathan 🔎
@NathanpmYoung8 Aug 2023
If you invite me to your wedding, you will stay together. Factchecked by real samosvety superforecasters
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Jonathan Mann writes about the future of the tech job market for @asteriskmgzn asteriskmag.com/issues/03/ai…

AI Isn’t Coming for Tech Jobs—Yet

LLMs can make a developer’s job easier and faster. When might they make them obsolete?

asteriskmag.com
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Our excellent @celloMolly is one of the mentors!
Epoch AI
@EpochAIResearch8 Jun 2023
We are launching the Epoch and Forecasting Research Institute mentorship program for women, non-binary people, and trans people of all genders who want to contribute to the field of AI forecasting. Apply now! epochai.org/blog/epoch-and-f…
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Samotsvety Forecasting retweeted
Asterisk
@asteriskmgzn15 Mar 2023
The next pandemic is coming. How can we predict what it will be? Or when it might come? @juan_cambeiro forecasts the next Covid-level outbreak in Issue 02. asteriskmag.com/issues/2/wha…
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New Samotsvety (draft) report is out on "Moore v. Harper and the future of US democracy", by Greg Justice.
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Link is here: <samotsvety.org/blog/2023/02/…>.

Samotsvety Forecasting

1-Year Post-mortem Analysis

samotsvety.org
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"Is that a low disagreeableness reply, or do you actually agree. If so, how so?" — @NunoSempere
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Samotsvety Forecasting retweeted
Future Matters@FutureMatters_24 Jan 2023
Samotsvety (@SamotsvetyF) has updated its AGI timelines. The median forecaster now believes AGI has a 50% chance of arriving by 2041, and a 31% chance of arriving by 2030. forum.effectivealtruism.org/…

Update to Samotsvety AGI timelines

Previously: Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts. …

forum.effectivealtruism.org
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Yep, also posted on our blog here: <samotsvety.org/blog/2023/01/…>
Future Matters@FutureMatters_24 Jan 2023
Samotsvety (@SamotsvetyF) has updated its AGI timelines. The median forecaster now believes AGI has a 50% chance of arriving by 2041, and a 31% chance of arriving by 2030. forum.effectivealtruism.org/…

Update to Samotsvety AGI timelines

Previously: Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts. …

forum.effectivealtruism.org
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Samotsvety Forecasting retweeted
Nikos Bosse
@nikosbosse12 Dec 2022
We're creating a database for base rates! forum.effectivealtruism.org/… The idea is to collect base rates for different categories of events and makes them available to researchers, forecasters and philanthropic organisations. 1/

Creating a database for base rates

TLDR • We are creating a database to collect base rates for various categories of events. You can find the database here and can suggest new base rat…

forum.effectivealtruism.org
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An analysis of monkeypox from our own Jared Leibovich for the newly launched Asterisk!
Asterisk
@asteriskmgzn21 Nov 2022
Each issue, we'll feature a forecaster who walks through their modeling process. In our debut issue, Jared Leibovich, the top forecaster on @GJ_Open, models the end of monkeypox in the United States. asteriskmag.com/issues/1/mod…
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😉 @McKinsey
Alvaro de Menard@AlvaroDeMenard21 Nov 2022
Some thoughts on the future of forecasting fantasticanachronism.com/202…
Samotsvety Forecasting retweeted
WIRED
@WIRED24 Oct 2022
Thinking about the prospect of nuclear war in terms of personal risk might sound callous, but getting to grips with probabilities might help us make better decisions about our own lives. Via @WIREDUK wired.trib.al/5abjfBJ
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