@ShMMor

Democracy, representation, national security, foreign policy, and sidewalks.

Joined October 2013
  • Tweets11.6K
  • Following2.6K
  • Followers14.8K
558Media
A short interview I gave to @bbcworldservice alongside @dahliasc about today's election. First we talked about what incumbents do when they are in a panic about possibly losing power and how that played out over here.
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Then we discussed how the current coalition's support collapsed three years ago, and how nothing has moved it in the polling data ever since.
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Finally, we touched on expectations for tonight. We won't know necessarily who will form the next government, but we should get an idea of how big the swing against the coalition (if any) there really is, and that will at a minimum rule out some scenarios.
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Shany Mor שני מור شني مور retweeted
Shany Mor שני מור شني مور@ShMMor10h
Replying to @ShMMor @robsatloff
As with the eruption of violence in 2000, the consensus is to reward the side that initiated violence and was defeated with better terms — an obvious recipe for more war and less peace.
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Shany Mor שני מור شني مور retweeted
Shany Mor שני מור شني مور@ShMMor10h
Replying to @robsatloff
Implicit also is that they know what caused October 7 and the subsequent war — and somehow it has nothing to do with the desires, beliefs, or goals of the side that carried out the massacre and initiated the war, and has everything to do with Israeli sin.
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Spoke to @a_escalonilla of @elespanolcom about the possibility of a military operation that could interfere with the election of a new parliament. elespanol.com/mundo/oriente-…
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Speculating about today's election on @TimesRadio with @_tom_nunan_ . First we discussed national security and the outgoing government's unpopularity on this issue.
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Then we talked about incumbents look like when they fear they might be losing — and about the rumours of an impending Israeli military offensive immediately before or after the general elections.
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Finally, we speculated about what even an inconclusive result would mean about the deeper shifts in Israeli public opinion since October 7.
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Shany Mor שני מור شني مور retweeted
Paul Gross@pauldgrossOct 24
Great detail here from @ShMMor . If the polls are right, it’s the biggest swing against an incumbent since 2009 (when Bibi returned to power.)
Shany Mor שני מור شني مور@ShMMorOct 24
Spoke to @mattfrei of @Channel4News about the upcoming election. channel4.com/news/benjamin-n…

Benjamin Netanyahu’s re-election chances analysed ahead of Israel election

We spoke to Dr Shany Mor, who served on Israel's National Security Council, and is now a senior researcher at the Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre.

channel4.com
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ובכן, רק הייתי צריך לחכות יומיים.
Shany Mor שני מור شني مور@ShMMorOct 18
שבוע לפני הבחירות ב־1999, 2006, 2015, נתניהו כבר התנהג כמי שיודע שהוא עומד להפסיד (וטעה ב־2015 אבל זה סיפור אחר). ב־2026 קצת פחות. מה קורה כאן בעצם?
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Spoke to @mattfrei of @Channel4News about the upcoming election. channel4.com/news/benjamin-n…

Benjamin Netanyahu’s re-election chances analysed ahead of Israel election

We spoke to Dr Shany Mor, who served on Israel's National Security Council, and is now a senior researcher at the Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre.

channel4.com
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מזכיר שמעבר של 5-10 מנדטים גוש לגוש (בד״כ מקואליציה מכהנת לאופוזיציה) היה פעם תופעה סטנדרטית בכל מערכת בחירות משנות ה־1970 עד 2009. והמעבר שבא לידי ביטוי בבחירות 2009 כבר התרחש בדעת הקהל לפחות שנתיים קודם לכן. כך גם המעבר שנראה ביום שלישי קרה גם הוא למעשה כבר לפני שלוש שנים.
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באופן מפתיע הקטע הזה שמעלים תמונה של השדרה שמובילה לביקורת גבולות בנתב״ג עכשיו בימים לפני הבחירות דווקא מרגש אותי מאוד. 🛬🇮🇱🗳️
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It is likely that in 2027 general elections will plunge both France and Germany into states of ungovernability. Which is depressing for me as a political scientist, since France has a terrible electoral system and Germany has an excellent one, and it apparently won't matter.
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שבוע לפני הבחירות ב־1999, 2006, 2015, נתניהו כבר התנהג כמי שיודע שהוא עומד להפסיד (וטעה ב־2015 אבל זה סיפור אחר). ב־2026 קצת פחות. מה קורה כאן בעצם?
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הנושא השלישי מיותר ויבזבז זמן יקר והנושא הראשון לא צריך לחכות להרכבת ממשלה אלא לעלות בכנסת גם בלי ממשלה יחד עם ביטול חוק היועמ״ש, ביטול חוק התקשורת, ביטול חוק ועדת שופטים, ביטול חוק יסוד:לימוד תורה, וביטול חוק בתי הדין הרבנים. הנושא השני באמת חייב לחכות להקמת ממשלה. בסדר גמור.
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Shany Mor שני מור شني مور retweeted
Shany Mor שני מור شني مور@ShMMorOct 15
Replying to @trashavocado
I did not.
Shany Mor שני מור شني مور@ShMMor3 Nov 2022
Replying to @elderofziyon
As if you don't know where this is going. The next terms to be watered down to meaninglessness so that they can be thrown at the Jewish state are "genocide" within five years and "holocaust" within at most ten.
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Wrote this three years ago during the week that everyone now claims to remember as one where they were all showing solidarity with Israel. Was I wrong?
Shany Mor שני מור شني مور@ShMMor15 Oct 2023
Human rights groups are getting ready to castigate Israel for occupying a territority they falsely claimed it already occupied, enforcing a siege on a territory they falsely claimed was under siege, and creating refugees of people they falsely claimed were already refugees.
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Shany Mor שני מור شني مور retweeted
Formosan@_Formosan_Oct 9
Si vous n’avez pas lu c’est article phénoménal de @ShMMor sur le désastre palestinien et la guerre, et notre rôle dans tout ça, c’est le moment. Il est encore en accès libre pour quelques jours.
Shany Mor שני מור شني مور@ShMMorOct 7
Today the paywall was lifted (temporarily?) on my article from three years ago “Ecstasy and Amnesia in the Gaza Strip.” It was my attempt in the first weeks after October 7 to understand a current event as a historical one. ideas.tikvah.org/mosaic/essa…

Ecstasy and Amnesia in the Gaza Strip

Three catastrophes, all marked by euphoria at the start and denial at the end, have shaped the Palestinian predicament. Has the fourth arrived, and is the same dynamic playing out?

ideas.tikvah.org
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