NFL analytics, betting insights, fantasy football analysis, game picks & props using advanced predictive models & data from Warren Sharp l betting on @novig
Joined August 2019
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Week 7 Matchup Show is up.
Warren and @LordReebs on:
Kenneth Walker's revenge game vs Seattle
Jonathan Gannon's defense vs the Lions
Bijan Robinson vs the 49ers run defense
Derrick Henry vs the Bengals light boxes
Plus two sneaky games. Who scores the first TD Sunday night?
Sharp Football Analysis retweeted
Week 7 Matchup Show is up.
Warren and @LordReebs on:
Kenneth Walker's revenge game vs Seattle
Jonathan Gannon's defense vs the Lions
Bijan Robinson vs the 49ers run defense
Derrick Henry vs the Bengals light boxes
Plus two sneaky games. Who scores the first TD Sunday night?
Everything you need for Patriots-Bears tonight, starting with Rich Hribar's Worksheet.
Drake Maye vs. the Bears blitz decides it. Kept clean, he averages 9.0 yards per attempt. Pressured, 6.3. Chicago blitzes 38.1% of the time.
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Josh Shepardson's first TD scorer pick tonight pays +6000. His anytime TD pick is in there too.
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Alan Eck has the game. Home teams are 33-16 straight up in his career, and his games went 11-6 to the over last season.
Every Week 7 crew:
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Joe Gibbs went 2-0 last week betting off the officials
This week Alex Moore has Packers-Lions
His crew ranks 2nd in penalties per game, and Green Bay is the most penalized road team in the NFL
Every Week 7 crew plus @nflrefstats1's picks:
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Josh Shepardson (@BChad50) is 11-1 on his ATS and game total picks this season, including 2-0 last week.
His two Week 7 best bets are up, free, with the full case for each:
sharpfootballanalysis.com/be…
No. 10 Utah is 6-0
No. 14 Houston is 6-1 and already won at Kansas State
Utah's offense looks different without Jason Beck
Read-option runs dropped from 42% of its rushes last year to 12.5%.
Contender or untested?
Full breakdown and pick:
sharpfootballanalysis.com/be…
Arch Manning and Texas are 4-2, and the questions are getting louder
No. 7 Ole Miss comes to Austin with the 3rd-best pass protection in the country
Texas brings the 2nd-best pass rush.
Full Ole Miss-Texas breakdown and pick:
sharpfootballanalysis.com/be…
Tanner McKee threw 45 passes in his first start and averaged 4.8 yards per attempt
Monday night he gets a Dallas defense allowing 68.7% completions and 8.0 yards per attempt, both 30th in the NFL
Does the volume finally stick?
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Kenneth Walker goes back to Seattle on Sunday night
He has been an RB1 every week this season and leads the NFL with 152.0 yards from scrimmage per game
The Seahawks have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 35 straight games
Something has to break
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Kirk Cousins leads the NFL in fantasy points per dropback on play action.
The Rams are one of the best defenses against it and have not allowed more than 218 passing yards in a game. Josh Allen and Brock Purdy included.
Something has to give Sunday.
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Bo Nix has thrown for 230 yards over his last two games combined, with the lowest deep-ball rate in the NFL.
Now he gets Arizona: a league-high 8.6 yards per attempt allowed, and a QB1 allowed five straight weeks.
Does Nix finally break out?
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Detroit games average a league-high 62.4 combined points.
Jordan Love averages 9.6 yards per attempt on play action. The Lions allow 8.7 Y/A against it, and a top-8 QB every week this season.
Love threw 4 TDs in Detroit last year.
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Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert and Jayden Daniels are all on bye.
Bills, Jaguars, Chargers and Commanders: four teams off, and a lot of lineups with holes in them.
Rich Hribar ranks every QB, RB, WR and TE for Week 7:
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Lamar Jackson is expected back Sunday against Cincinnati
In 2024, these teams played 41-38 and 35-34
Lamar scored 30+ fantasy points in both
Last season, playing hurt, he finished QB27 and QB22 against them
Which Lamar shows up?
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Geno Smith throws short
Only 24.4% of his passes go 10+ yards downfield, 2nd-lowest in the NFL
Miami has let passers complete 87 of 97 throws under 10 yards, the highest rate in the league
Is Geno your Week 7 streamer?
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After Mike Evans left Monday, the 49ers gained 2 yards on their last three drives
He is expected to sit Sunday
The counter: blitz Brock Purdy and he averages a league-high 10.0 yards per attempt
Atlanta just blitzed at its highest rates of the season
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