SideKicker

I think $HIMS is the most obvious play in the market right now. Going to highlight all of the DD I have been compiling these last few weeks. Prepare for a longer post. Why I think $HIMS is set to become the modern day healthcare platform 1. Let's start off with highlighting the incredible fundamentals: -As of Q4 2024, $HIMS grew 69% YoY to $1.5B for FY ‘24 -Subscribers grew to 2.2M, up 45% YoY -12% Adj. EBITDA Margins, up from 6% in FY ‘23 -No debt -$300M+ in cash on the balance sheet -Guiding for $2.3B–$2.4B in FY ‘25 → ~60% YoY growth -Targeting 25%+ Adj. EBITDA and mid-70s gross margins by 2030 2. Let's talk about the visionary leadership driving this ship: Andrew Dudum is HIM(sorry i had to): As the Founder/CEO, @AndrewDudum took this company from $82.6M in 2019 to ~$1.5B in 5 years. Yes, only 5 years. Execution does not lack here. Andrew also recently positioned $HIMS with the likes of $NFLX, $UBER, $AMZN & $SHOP in the most recent earnings call. Further stating this on the @himshouse podcast less than 6 weeks ago: "Consumer centric healthcare is obviously the future model. When I think about those other companies you mentioned, the few the things that come to mind are -- Price transparent, on demand, personalized, mobile centric and empowering to the customer. The customer has choice in all of this and in every single industry in the U.S. The consumerization has taken place with some type of disruption in the last 10 years, EXCEPT for healthcare and its freaking crazy." Andrew is also surrounded by an unbelievable board: - Dr. Toby Cosgrove: Former CEO of the Cleveland Clinic, bringing decades of healthcare leadership experience. - Christopher Payne: Seasoned tech industry executive with experience at DoorDash, eBay, Microsoft, and Amazon - Dr. Patrick Carroll: Former Chief Medical Officer of Walgreens - Andrea Perez: Former Nike and Sony marketing executive - David Wells: Former CFO at Netflix - Deb Autor: former Deputy Commissioner at the FDA - Kåre Schultz: who spent over 25 years at Novo Nordisk and served as President and COO 3. Product Velocity and Innovation This is where $HIMS really separates itself. This isn’t some one-hit-wonder. This is a product machine. Since launching in 2017, they’ve dropped category after category—and most importantly, they scale those products fast: 2017 – Hair loss & ED: Finasteride, Sildenafil, Minoxidil. Core men's health. Still huge. 2018 – Launched Hers: Added birth control, acne, anti-aging, and even Addyi for female libido. Immediate traction. 2020 – Mental health: Rolled out online therapy + psychiatry. Now a $200M+ run-rate. 2023 – Weight loss program launches late in the year. Includes oral meds, coaching, lifestyle tracking. 2024 – They add GLP-1s (compounded Semaglutide) in Q2. By year-end, this program alone is already pacing $300M+. Each product rollout is not just “launched”—it’s monetized fast. They don't just test products, they deploy with real infrastructure: custom EMR system, 24/7 care team, asynchronous consults, integrated fulfillment. And what's next? They’ve already hinted at testosterone replacement therapy, digestive health, diabetes, fertility, even menopause. All high-need, high-margin categories with massive TAMs. And they’ve quietly added the clinical and operational foundation to do it right. In short: $HIMS has the team, tech, and engine to launch, scale, and dominate across verticals. Not a telehealth company—a health platform. 4. Total Addressable Market (TAM) + Moat Let’s talk scale. According to their own estimates (which are actually pretty conservative), $HIMS is targeting a TAM of over 500 million+ addressable conditions across four major verticals: Sexual Health – 80M+ Dermatology – 80M+ Mental Health – 100M+ Weight Loss / Metabolic Health – 100M+ And that’s before they expand into testosterone replacement, menopause, diabetes, digestive health, fertility, etc. We're looking at a platform with multi-billion dollar runway per category, not per company. If they continue executing at current rates, this becomes a $10B+ revenue opportunity. And they’re only at $1.5B today. Now, let’s talk moat—because this isn’t something a copycat can spin up overnight: Vertical Integration: $HIMS owns the full stack—provider network, EMR, pharmacy fulfillment, tech platform. This isn’t a plug-and-play Teladoc clone. Brand Power: You’ve seen their ads. You've heard the jingle. You’ve probably had a friend say “oh yeah, I tried Hims.” They're the only telehealth brand that actually feels like a consumer brand. Data Flywheel: Millions of async consults = clinical data + consumer insight → leads to better personalization, better outcomes, better retention. Regulatory Infrastructure: Most players avoid the FDA-side of healthcare. $HIMS runs toward it. Adding Deb Autor (ex-FDA) and launching GLP-1s legally, safely, and affordably is a major flex. Time Advantage: They've been building for 7 years while others just started. Their compound advantage is already working. And no— $AMZN can’t just copy this. Amazon tried with PillPack. Tried with Amazon Clinic. Tried with One Medical. Healthcare is not two-day shipping. What $HIMS has built—brand trust, clinical ops, personalization at scale—can’t be bought or brute-forced. In short: TAM is massive. Execution is elite. The moat is real. 5. Valuation: The market is still asleep Let’s talk numbers: - $HIMS is currently a ~$9.1B market cap - 2024 Revenue: $1.48B - 2025 Guidance: $2.35B midline - Forward P/S: ~3.9x This is a company growing revenue nearly 60% YoY, expanding EBITDA, and now generating positive operating cash flow—trading at a 3.9x forward sales multiple. Which is already grossly mispriced, but here’s the real kicker: That 2025 guidance only included roughly one quarter of GLP-1 revenue. Since then, they’ve signed a game-changing partnership with $NOVO to offer branded GLP-1s like Wegovy (which they are already marketing)—bundled with 24/7 care, coaching, and personalized support through their platform. Which means that original revenue guidance? Already outdated. The Street hasn’t caught up. With this new partnership, I think we see closer to $2.7B-$3B for FY 25'. I don't think $NOVO will be the only partner this year either..👀 So a company with a possibility of doing a midline of $2.85B trading at ~$9B.. with no debt... growing 60%+.... Overall, $HIMS isn’t just building a telehealth brand— they’re quietly assembling the most scalable, consumer-first healthcare platform in the U.S. Massive TAM, proven execution, expanding margins, and a product engine built to compound. The market hasn’t caught up. That’s the opportunity.