Space policy, technology and business analyst and consultant

Jackson, WY
Joined March 2012
Rand Simberg retweeted
The US has long stopped to see freedom as a core value. Our core value is safety. Sanctified cowardice justifies regulatory capture, preventing us from exploring, building, trading, living. It's also the reason behind declining birth rates: we don't like to breed in captivity.
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More money, more time and flying less will not make spaceflight safer or make us more effective at achieving our objectives. We are done defending the status quo. We are not going to compromise NASA’s effectiveness or capability trying to appease every constituency and, in the process, satisfy no one. We are here for the mission, focused on executing @POTUS’ national space policy, achieving the objectives entrusted to us and delivering the kind of world-changing headlines worthy of America’s space program.
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Rand Simberg retweeted
You have no clue what you're talking about. Scientists are not bought with high salaries (although many academics make well north of $150K / year, far more than the meager $60K you think is so common). But they absolutely know what they have to say in order to keep their jobs. If you're a research scientist, it is absolutely critical that your work be published in “prestigious” academic journals like Nature, Science Advances, or PNAS and perceived by your peers as being important enough to contribute to the “body of knowledge” on a given subject. If your work is seen as being important, it will be cited. The more your work is cited by other scientists, the higher your H-index will be. The higher your H-index, the better your chances are of climbing the letter to success (e.g., academic tenure or being the director of university programs / centers). And the more you get published, the more the media will cover your newly published research. That opens the door to a lot of new opportunities including being asked to serve on governmental / intergovernmental panels and getting more funding for research projects. It also puts you on the shortlist for earning accolades from “prestigious” scientific organizations such as the American Geophysical Union (AGU). That is the entire apparatus of academia. There is a reason “publish or perish” is their slogan. However, research (e.g., field studies, modeling, etc.) requires a lot of money. Many journals also have fees for both submission and publication, and they are on the order of several thousand dollars. Some scientists even employ assistants who require a salary. Time is money. Labor isn't free. That's precisely why research scientists' and academics' pet projects are bankrolled by taxpayer-funded research grants, which are often awarded in the total of tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars. Every single year Congress appropriates a budget for research and development (R&D), and that money flows through agencies such as the National Science Foundation (NSF) to fund specific research agendas. Climate scientists' careers depend on Congress being convinced enough that “human-caused climate change” is a serious enough issue to justify having a large science budget. In other words, politicians with specific policy goals in mind are in charge of where R&D money goes for scientific research. Funding agencies like the NSF then grants with very specific guidelines that applicants must adhere to in order to be awarded grant money. For instance, a research grant might ask scientists to examine how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increase fire risk in California. If you instead propose to investigate how poor forest management policies (e.g., decades of fire suppression and lack of prescribed burning and mechanical thinning) increase fire risk, your proposal will be dismissed, and you'll be denied the grant. Even if by some miracle you get the grant, it's unlikely that your research will pass through the “peer review” process because peer reviewers and the editors of journals themselves are biased. “Peer reviewers” are usually academics, and their careers also depend on the continuation of Congressional funding. Worse yet, many of these “peer reviewers” don't want their own findings to be challenged. It is becoming increasingly difficult for new research to be accepted for publication in peer-reviewed journals that in any way runs counternarrative to the orthodoxy that mankind’s industrialization is causing an “existential climate crisis.” The government has deep pockets (deeper than any oil company) and to pretend O&G companies are the only ones with bias is an exercise for mental midgets.
Replying to @ChrisMartzWX
Sticking to government funding means these scientists get paid like, $60k a year. They could make triple that by running propaganda for oil and gas. I work for oil and gas, but what you’re saying is so very dumb. Embarrassingly stupid thinking and it’s pervasive in the right
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Just talked to a naked guy on the street with a sign. Prepare now.
Just talked to Carl. Prepare now.🪿
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Rand Simberg retweeted
Peter Koch, editor and publisher of the long-running Moon Miner's Manifesto, passed away on October 8. He was 88. Peter advocated for developing and settling the Moon for most of his life. Whether through the NSS or the Moon Society, which he helped create, Peter held the knowledge, lore, and spirit that kept it all going. He will be sadly missed. nss.org/remembering-peter-ko…
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California to the Ninth Circuit: "Because we have already begun tabulating mail in ballots and there might be illegal ballots among those already cast that we can't segregate, we are obligated to finish this election out by continuing to count illegal ballots for consistency."
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Holy shit. This bombshell went under everyone's radar. Tom Barrack, perhaps on accident, made an astonishing admission. His direct quote: "We installed Khomeini in 1979. We took out the Shah (of Iran)". This is a senior American ambassador saying out loud that that the 1979 'revolution' was in fact a foreign backed coup to install Khomeini. The Shah was only overthrown because of direct American intervention. It was not organic, and it was not the will of the Iranian people. Rather, Jimmy Carter's blood stained hands were all over the ruination of Iran for generations. The current islamic regime is a Democrat-stamped entity.
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Rand Simberg retweeted
The only way out is through. They're calling it the Bugpocalypse. LLMs are being used to find long-hidden cracks in the software infrastructure, and it's happening at a furious rate. 3% of all compromises in computing history happened in the last week, claims one source? I believe it. There are people saying public access to the frontier models ought to be locked out, or heavily guardrailed, over this. The problem with that idea can be summed up in one sentence: when lockpicks are outlawed, only outlaws will have lockpicks. The lockpicks will be Chinese open-weight models, if nothing else. There's no way to stop those from becoming ubiquitous. There are two futures in front of us. One in which only the bad guys have lockpicks, and security holes go undiscovered until they're exploited. Another in which everybody has lockpicks and is aggressively red-teaming their own software so it gets fixed before the holes are exploited. The corpus of human code is huge but finite. The number of defects in it has to be finite too. We can fix those defects now; we have a million friendly robots to do it with. The only way out is through.
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Rand Simberg retweeted
“He jailed socialists, so he wasn’t a socialist.” This is the argument every single person in my replies thinks is a mic drop. It’s actually the weakest one available, and it collapses in five seconds. Lenin banned the Mensheviks and the Socialist Revolutionaries. Both were socialist parties. By your logic, Lenin wasn’t a socialist. Stalin shot Bukharin, Zinoviev, Kamenev, and sent an ice axe through Trotsky’s skull. All of them were founding fathers of the Bolshevik revolution. By your logic, Stalin wasn’t a socialist. Mao purged Liu Shaoqi, the President of the People’s Republic, and let him die in a cell. Pol Pot murdered his own cadres by the thousands. Robespierre sent Danton to the guillotine, then got the guillotine himself. There’s a reason Vergniaud said the Revolution, like Saturn, devours its own children. Purging rival socialists isn’t evidence against collectivism. It’s one of its most reliable signatures. Why? Because when the state decides everything, there can only be one plan. Two factions with two plans for the same economy can’t coexist. One has to disappear. In a free society, disagreements get settled by markets and elections. In a planned society, they get settled by the secret police. Hitler crushing the SPD and the KPD, then murdering Röhm and Strasser in his own party, is exactly what you’d predict from a regime competing for the same thing: total control of the economy and of society. And that’s the real question. Not “what did he call himself” and not “who did he arrest”. The question is: who runs the economy? Under the Nazis, independent unions were abolished and replaced by a state labor front. Prices and wages were frozen by decree. Investment was directed by a Four-Year Plan. Private property existed on paper, as long as owners did exactly what the state told them to do. Hayek saw this in real time. He dedicated The Road to Serfdom “To the socialists of all parties” precisely because he understood that the planners of the left and the planners of the right were the same species. Collectivism isn’t a color on the political spectrum. It’s the belief that a central authority can and should direct the economy. Once you accept that, the purges, the camps and the one-party state aren’t accidents. They’re the operating manual. So no, “he jailed communists” doesn’t refute anything. Communists jailed communists for seventy years. Read Hayek. Then come back.
This probably hits hard if you failed history in high school. Hitler was a far-Right fascist whose party was named the National Socialist German Workers' Party to attract working-class voters. Then he banned the Social Democratic and Communist parties, and sent socialists and communists to concentration camps.
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Multiple Fronts, Mounting Pressure, and the Limits of Western Readiness
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Rand Simberg retweeted
Climate change has never killed anyone. You need to be put in a retirement home.
Climate change killed 32,000+ people in Europe this summer. Trump believes this crisis is a "hoax." Republicans in Congress are following their "Great Leader.” NO to Trump’s fossil fuel agenda. YES to creating millions of jobs by moving our energy system away from fossil fuels.
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Rand Simberg retweeted
If someone from Somalia with a fake identity can serve in the United States Congress for years without getting caught, imagine still believing that illegals aren’t voting in U.S. elections.
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Rand Simberg retweeted
Okay. I'm going to explain something here, because apparently we've reached the point in human civilization where BASIC FIREARMS SAFETY is now a controversial political position. There is a concept in engineering called "defense in depth." It's a fairly simple idea. You have multiple, independent layers of protection against something going catastrophically wrong, because human beings are remarkably creative when it comes to finding new and exciting ways to screw things up. For example, commercial buildings have automatic fire sprinklers. They ALSO have fire extinguishers. "But the building has SPRINKLERS!" you might exclaim. "Why do we need FIRE EXTINGUISHERS? What are you, some kind of ANTI-SPRINKLER BIGOT?" No. We have both because fires are bad, and we'd prefer the building not turn into a large, expensive barbecue. This brings us to firearms. Most of us "gun bros" (and chicks/sisters/catgirls/whatever) are familiar with something called Cooper's Four Rules of Firearms Safety, named after Jeff Cooper, who was something of an authority on the subject. They are: 1. Treat every firearm as though it is loaded. ALWAYS. 2. Never allow the muzzle to point at anything you are not willing to destroy. 3. Keep your finger OFF THE TRIGGER until your sights are on the target and you are ready to fire. 4. Be absolutely certain of your target and what lies beyond it. Notice something interesting about these rules? They work TOGETHER. They're an example of DEFENSE IN DEPTH. Suppose you accidentally point your firearm at something you don't particularly want to shoot, such as your television, your dog, or your Uncle Bob, who has already had a difficult week. Well, if you're following Rule Three, your finger isn't on the trigger. And if you're following Rule One, you're behaving as though the gun is loaded, EVEN IF YOU PERSONALLY UNLOADED IT FIVE MINUTES AGO. Here's something that firearms instructors understand, and apparently a surprising number of people on the internet do not: HUMAN BEINGS ARE IDIOTS. Not ALL the time, mind you. Frequently enough that entire engineering disciplines exist to protect us from ourselves. Sometimes we forget to unload a firearm. Sometimes we THINK we unloaded a firearm. Sometimes we're absolutely POSITIVE the safety is engaged, when in fact it isn't. Sometimes we install a mechanical device designed to prevent a firearm from discharging, and then behave as though this magically repeals the fundamental principles of firearms safety. It does not. A mechanical safety device is ANOTHER LAYER OF PROTECTION. It is not a permission slip to disregard all the others. This is why responsible gun owners follow these rules even when the firearm is unloaded, even when the safety is engaged, and even when we're absolutely certain the thing couldn't possibly fire. The whole POINT of defense in depth is that when one layer fails, the others are still there to prevent somebody from having a REALLY BAD FRIDAY IN THE EMERGENCY ROOM. I suspect part of the problem here is a fundamental difference between British and American firearms culture. In Britain, firearms are sufficiently restricted that, for most people, getting your hands on one involves obtaining the appropriate government permissions, satisfying various legal requirements, and presumably presenting a signed note from the Archbishop of Canterbury confirming that you are a responsible adult. Meanwhile, over here in the United States, we crazy Americans can, (subject to the applicable laws,) just BUY THE DAMN THINGS. We own them. We shoot them. We clean them. We take them to the range. Some of us own enough firearms to equip a moderately sized Central American republic. Contrary to what many of you seem to believe, this does not mean we're all wandering around our living rooms casually pointing loaded shotguns at Uncle Bubba while shouting "YEEHAW!" Quite the opposite, actually. Because we regularly handle firearms, responsible American gun owners develop habits specifically intended to prevent Uncle Bubba from having to explain to an emergency-room physician why he's suddenly acquired an additional hole leaking important biological fluids. We follow multiple, overlapping safety rules precisely because we understand that mechanical devices can fail, people can make mistakes, and bullets are notoriously reluctant to return to the barrel once they've been fired. And this brings us to the photograph. The reason people are criticizing the officer in the hijab is not, contrary to your fascinating theory, that she is a WOMAN. Or that she is a MUSLIM. Or that she is wearing a HIJAB. It's that she's handling a firearm in a manner that violates basic firearms safety principles. Here's the really astonishing part: WE EXPECT TRAINED PROFESSIONALS TO KNOW BETTER. I know. Shocking. We expect electricians not to lick exposed wires. We expect surgeons to wash their hands. We expect airline pilots to remember that LANDING is generally considered an important part of flying. We expect police officers to demonstrate safe firearms handling. These expectations do not magically disappear because the professional in question happens to belong to a demographic group you believe requires special protection from criticism. In fact, I'd argue that holding her to a LOWER standard because she's a Muslim woman would be considerably more insulting than holding her to the exact same standard as every other armed professional. Her religion is irrelevant. Her sex is irrelevant. Her clothing is irrelevant. HER FIREARMS HANDLING IS THE ISSUE. And if your first instinct upon seeing someone criticize unsafe firearms handling is to accuse them of religious bigotry rather than examine the actual safety concern, I would respectfully suggest that you have confused firearms safety with a sociology seminar. This would be merely annoying if we were discussing something harmless, like the proper way to load a dishwasher. Unfortunately, we're discussing a device specifically designed to propel a piece of metal at extremely high velocity. Those devices, unlike internet political arguments, have a nasty habit of producing consequences that cannot be fixed by deleting your post. Which you should consider doing, anyway.
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658 Falcon 9 rocket powered landings vs ~53x storable propellant (monoprop or biprop) planetary or small body landers. Reliability rate with F9 booster recovery is 97-98% vs ~70-80% for storable prop soft landing on planetary or small bodies... (cc @Robotbeat @SpaceKoala)
Replying to @SpaceKoala
I know right? I wouldnt be surprised if Falcon 9 now had more successful landings than every hyperbolic planetary lander in history combined.
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Schools being underfunded is quite possibly the most prevalent instance of "common knowledge" in America that is not just wrong but in fact the opposite of reality. Texas spends more money per K-12 student than any country but in the world but Luxembourg and Norway.
Republicans have governed Texas for 30 years. Why are our public schools not fully funded?
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Rand Simberg retweeted
Elon has always been a strong supporter of competition: “Nothing any of my companies have done has been to stifle competition. In fact, we’ve done the opposite. “At SpaceX, we don’t use patents… we’ve done nothing anti-competitive. “The unusual thing about SpaceX and Tesla is that we’ve done things that have helped our competition.”
AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile are jointly lobbying the FCC to preserve existing rules as @SpaceX moves closer to launching its own independent cellular network that would compete directly with the three major U.S. carriers. On Oct 20th, reps from all three major U.S. wireless carriers met with FCC officials to push back against proposed changes that would give satellite companies more freedom to offer cellular service. The carriers urged the FCC to: • Block satellite companies from using certain 5G frequencies currently used by wireless carriers. • Keep rules requiring satellite companies to get permission from wireless carriers before using their licensed spectrum. • Allow wireless carriers to maintain control over these agreements, including the ability to end them. • Reconsider proposed interference limits to protect existing cellular networks. Based on all the public communications from these carriers, and the lobbying, they are clearly worried that SpaceX's @Starlink Mobile network is going to be a major competitor to them. Starlink Mobile will become the first network operator to deploy both satellite and terrestrial spectrum. The FCC recently announced that they are considering new rules that could make it easier for satellite companies like SpaceX to offer cellular service without relying as heavily on existing wireless carriers, so this is partly what the three big carriers are fighting against.
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I do think Democrats have done themselves an extraordinary disservice by making court-packing part of their platform.
Hillary wants the Supreme Court expanded to 13 Justices -- but not until "Democrats are in power." Because it's all about making the court less partisan and has nothing to do with entrenching Democrat power, of course.
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Rand Simberg retweeted
Remember, if a Republican says "Obey the law. Don't break the law," it's really code for break the law and the Republican should be impeached. But a Democrat can directly tell you TO break the law and then instruct you HOW to break the law, and it's fiiiiiine
BREAKING: Mamdani instructs illegals in spanish on how to evade ICE
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Rand Simberg retweeted
There are a lot of people who seem to be upset about both SpaceX getting paid for services they provide and about them not providing services they're not contractually obligated to provide. Naturally, what they're rallying for is getting the government to rob a private company. These people are a greater threat to civilization than the ideological opponents they get so worked up over.
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