A solar manufacturer that grew revenue 141.5% in 2025 now trades at 2.0x TTM earnings, after falling 77.5% from its June peak. U.S. customs (CBP) has been detaining its Ethiopian cells since May, and Commerce is deciding whether they should pay the duties on Chinese cells, with a first ruling due around December 14. That company is TOYO Co., Ltd $TOYO, now at $3.83/share. $TOYO’s closest comps are four other listed solar manufacturers selling into the U.S., and all four are down from their 2026 highs too, as of the October 26 close: → First Solar $FSLR: Down 47.2% to $168.15/share. → Canadian Solar $CSIQ: Down 65.2% to $8.85/share. → JinkoSolar $JKS: Down 72.7% to $8.17/share. → T1 Energy $TE: Down 82.4% to $2.12/share. Only $TE has fallen further from its 2026 high. Besides CBP’s detentions and the Ethiopia inquiry, four more overhangs landed after the June peak: 1) Discounted stock sale: $TOYO sold $50M of stock and warrants at $11.00 on June 24, a 14.9% discount to the prior close, and the stock fell 38.8% that day to $7.91. 2) New tariff: An August 6 proclamation set a 15% U.S. tariff on imported solar cells and panels, including $TOYO’s cells from Ethiopia, starting December 4. 3) Guidance dropped: $TOYO didn’t reaffirm its 2026 targets with its H1 results on August 19, when the stock fell 24.2%, and on September 28 only said it expects positive EBITDA for H2 2026. 4) Parent delisted: The Tokyo Stock Exchange delisted Abalance, the Japanese group that controls $TOYO, on September 26. Still, $TOYO is profitable and has net cash: → Earnings: $156.4M of TTM EBITDA and $80.5M of TTM net income. → Cash flow: $61.4M from operations in H1 2026, less $27.8M of capex, for $33.7M of FCF. → Balance sheet: Went from a going-concern warning to positive working capital in six months, with $26.4M of net cash as of June 30. → Texas: Doubled its Texas module capacity to 2 GW and signed ~$240M of binding module contracts since mid-June. → Tax credits: Management expects $140M/year of U.S. manufacturing tax credits at full Texas output, 85.6% of $TOYO’s market cap, and leaves those credits out of its forecasts. $TOYO’s EV of $137.2M is just 0.9x its TTM EBITDA. So is $TOYO a profitable non-Chinese cell maker on sale, or is the market right that Ethiopia’s U.S. sales won’t last?

Anthropic's Q2 2026 (June 30, 2026) revenue of $11.6B was 2.5x what it made in all of FY2025 (ended Dec. 31, 2025). Anthropic also flipped to a $974M operating profit, from a $1.7B operating loss in Q1 2026 (March 31, 2026). Yet it posted a $66.3B net loss for the quarter. Here's what Anthropic's S-1 (the IPO filing), filed on October 26, 2026, says about the loss, the last private round's implied ~$1T valuation, ~$850B of compute commitments, the dilution ahead, and who controls the company after the IPO ↓

My bear, base, and bull cases value Boost Run’s $BRUN stock on year-end 2026 ARR (on the same basis as the multiples of CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN), which $BRUN will report with its Q4 results in March 2027. None of the three cases adds the $160.7M/year from the July order and Cohere, since both start in 2027. The peers’ contracts that start after 2026 aren’t in their year-end ARR either, so they’re priced into the multiples instead. Since the peers’ multiples leave out the debt they’ll take on to reach year-end ARR, I hold $BRUN’s net debt at today’s $244.3M, rather than adding the lease debt from its H2 2026 build. Each case’s value is year-end ARR times the multiple, minus the $244.3M of net debt, divided by the 88.8M fully diluted shares plus any new shares from a stock sale. I start with the $231.4M of ARR from contracts already running, then add (1) the June order’s $69.2M/year if it starts by December 31 and (2) however much of the $99.4M from contracts without disclosed terms is running by then. Bear case ($4.76, -46%) The bear case assumes $BRUN has no new financing to show by its Q3 report, lessors fund 70% of the H2 2026 build instead of 79.5% (below the 72.0% lessors funded in 2025), and the June order’s November 30 start slips into 2027, so 2026 GPU spending stays at the $1.0B low end of management’s range. That implies year-end ARR of $280M, 30% short of the target, a $62.2M stock sale at $8.89/share (7.0M new shares) to cover the funding gap and three months of 2027 payments, and today’s 2.5x, for a value of $4.76/share. I give the bear case about a 20% chance. Base case ($16.17, +82%) The base case assumes $BRUN lands new lease or asset-backed financing by year-end, starts the June order on November 30, and reaches its $400M target without selling stock. That implies $400M of year-end ARR at CoreWeave’s 4.2x, the median of the three peers, for a value of $16.17/share. I use today’s median, since the base case only solves $BRUN’s own financing problem. It assumes no relief on rates or borrowing costs, which would lift the peers’ multiples too. Bull case ($19.78, +122%) The bull case assumes everything in the base case, plus relief on rates and borrowing costs that lifts the peers’ multiples. That implies $400M of year-end ARR at 5.0x, still below Nebius’s 5.9x, for a value of $19.78/share. So the bull case is really a bet on the market, not on anything more from $BRUN. From $8.89/share, you’re risking a $4.13 loss (-46%) in the unlikely bear case for a $10.89 gain (+122%) in the more likely bull case. P.S. These cases use the October 16 close and predate $BRUN’s October 26 release, which says it has closed more than $600M of non-dilutive project financing in 2026.