20 | ✝️ | Central Alabama Weather | National Wx: @weathertrackus
Alabama
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First run of the HRRR, so lots of changes are likely, but this is a legitimate scenario for Mon.
Weak, narrow updrafts developing along or just ahead of a diffuse CF, not able to get organized due to weak instability, despite very favorable kinematics.
The RAP has a pretty robust look for severe weather, on a synoptic level for Monday.
Strong, very dynamic trough, coupled with broad subtropical flow, with strong low-level response and a rich broad warm sector; generally a textbook setup for an organized severe weather episode.
However, like much of the other guidance, widespread clouds and rain could suppress daytime heating, resulting in marginal thermodynamics, supporting a lower-end severe/tornado threat.
Although, a few severe storms & tornadoes may still be possible along the cold front given stronger forcing and cooling aloft.
Temps aloft are sufficient for adequate instability, if surface temps can rise high enough, which can be achieved through just a few hours of daytime heating.
However, most of the guidance depicts clouds and rain potentially persisting throughout much of the day.
Star retweeted
Severe weather is likely on Day 3/Monday across parts of the Great Plains, mainly from far North Texas to Northern Kansas.
A large trough, paired with a subtropical jet, will pull rich surface moisture northward across the Plains, with adequate instability, sufficient to support a few severe storms.
A mixed mode, featuring supercells and line segments appears likely, capable of producing all severe hazards, including a few tornadoes.
Indeed early elevated storms did produce very large hail earlier this afternoon...
New @aguacerowx computer
I personally don't understand why some (especially some, albeit a small minority) meteorologists are upset about this update.
We've advanced enough in forecasting to be able to have such changes, and somehow that's a problem?
Star retweeted
NEW:
The Storm Prediction Center, on or about November 16, 2026 will begin issuing afternoon Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlooks, at 2130 UTC (4:30 PM CDT/3:30 PM CST).
The content and format of the outlooks will not change; only the addition of afternoon issuances.
Wind profiles will undoubtedtly be supportive for SigTors this afternoon, the main question lies in thermos.
Will moisture arrive in time before storms grow upscale?
I think initially storms will be elevated, with primarily a hail risk, before the tornado threat ramps up...
Since July 20, I’ve uploaded 20 videos to the channel, experimenting with different formats and styles little by little.
Winter might be fun…👀🤫
Here's what we know (and what we don't know) about next week's active weather pattern, potentially featuring severe weather:
youtube.com/watch?v=nXjYRM9m…
Upper-70s expected this weekend and into early next week, with rain returning on Sun/Mon, and again on Thu. Some isolated areas in Central AL could briefly touch 80 between Fri & Mon.
Temperatures return to seasonal averages late next week, with 60s for highs.
Mild days and cool nights will continue for the rest of the week, with a warming trend next week, with clouds and rain back in the forecast, as early as ~Nov 1.
Upper 70s and isolated 80 degree spots likely first week of Nov, before cool temps return the following week.
Upper 70s possible next week, with rain coming back in the picture around Nov 1-3.
Some areas in the Deep South could touch 80 in early November, but mostly upper-70s expected for Birmingham and North Alabama.
Some signal for a cool down coming the 2nd week of November.
