Weather Stats

I think the strength and size of this storm is going to take a lot of people by surprise. Jamaica and Cuba really need to be on high alert. The western Carribean waters have a lot of relatively untapped heat that goes deep down, so if this storm finds a friendly atmospheric setup, the sky could be the limit while it's down there in the Carribean.

Until tropical cyclone genesis forecasting and intensity forecasting become more accurate for potential storms like this one, instead of trying to forecast a specific intensity, like "a 65 mph tropical storm" when something gets close to landfall a few days out, I think a lot more emphasis should be given to inform the general public about the "outlier" possibilities that exist, such as the possibility that this could potentially be a major hurricane when it gets close to or over Jamaica. It takes all the right ingredients falling into place for some of the these worst-case scenarios to come to fruition, so we usually don't explicitly call for worst-case, but I feel like it's important for the public to be aware of the full scope of possibilities. And this goes both ways- if we know that the worst-case scenario for a given potential landfall location is only a minimal hurricane, then if the public feels like meteorologists have the reputation of being fully honest with them in the past, then the public will calmly go about needed preparations without panicking. But when the public feels like they are constantly being surprised by how bad the intensity forecasts are, they will naturally be very worried about even weaker potential storms that pose little threat. And people will also tend to start relying on their own judgement more than actual forecasts. So that's why it is so important for meteorologists and media to convey the full scope of possibilities for any given scenario and helping the public to understand their respective risk factor.