Steve Cass

“World’s Dumbest Energy Policy.” That was the headline of a 2019 Wall Street Journal editorial about Germany’s plan to quit coal after deciding to give up nuclear power. In the first nine months of 2026, Germany still mined about 61 million tonnes of lignite to power plants serving the public grid. Lignite, hard coal, gas and imports helped meet demand when wind and solar output fell. How often does that happen? Uniper counted 1,435 periods from 2016 to 2025 when wind and solar together delivered less than 10% of installed capacity for more than ten hours. Day-long events occurred almost monthly. Three-day events occurred about twice a year. The longest lasted a week. Even with biomass and hydropower, the gap can reach tens of gigawatts. A gap of 40 GW over five days amounts to 4,800 GWh. At €250 per kWh, that much battery capacity would cost €1.2 trillion. Once empty, the batteries still need to be recharged. Germany’s first two auctions for capacity that can deliver for extended periods cover 9 GW, with delivery planned by 2031. That is less than a quarter of the 40 GW in this example. Calling gas plants a “reserve” understates their role. As coal plants close, gas will have to cover shortfalls on ordinary days too. That requires a reliable supply of affordable gas. Before Germany closes more coal plants, it should be able to say what will fossil free supply its factories on the seventh day of a #Dunkelflaute. @bundeskanzler @larsklingbeil @schneidercar #COP31 #ChangeAtG @BadumLisa @peter_simone @OlafLies @MonaNeubaur @cem_oezdemir @thekla_walker