Adam Stiber retweeted
If just a few lab staff took on verification work full-time, verifying a US-China pacing deal could get much more feasible within months.
Here are 8 specific things lab staff could start on today to help make international verification possible: 🧵
Adam Stiber retweeted
Imagine a gym where everyone lifts according to birth year. That’s basically how we organize education.
Adam Stiber retweeted
What if Anthropic just...stopped? Unilaterally? Right now?
I talked to @DKokotajlo @_NathanCalvin @geoffreyirving about why it's time to stop framing AI as a prisoner's dilemma and just do the right thing.
I hope a lot of people inside and outside Anthropic read this
🧵 1/n
Adam Stiber retweeted
Respect Orders are now live across England and Wales
Adam Stiber retweeted
COPE:
If a massive AI disaster occurs, it won't kill *everyone.*
STRAIGHT DOPE:
Nate Soares: "It's actually pretty hard to get an AI disaster scenario where it kills only half the people."
Hoog: So you think it will be 100%?
@so8res: Probably yeah, that's sort of the default.
Adam Stiber retweeted
Hey what's up gang, if you like humanity not being extinct, go ahead and smash that "if 99,999 other people pledge to march in DC for an international treaty to ban the development of superhuman AI, then I will also attend" button
Adam Stiber retweeted
This is basically a classical dangerous Gain of Function (dGoF) experiment. I wish the US government would shut it down.
A while ago, Stacey Schultz-Cherry and I wrote a commentary (pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/article…), that ends with this sentence:
US: Bird flu has been spreading for around two months on a Utah mink farm holding thousands of animals. None have been culled, workers aren't being monitored, and the USDA says it doesn't regulate mink. So thousands of animals are exposed, workers could be at risk, and nobody seems to be taking responsibility.
theguardian.com/us-news/2026…
Adam Stiber retweeted
Like a beaver building a stuffed animal dam, the communist builds his imaginary gulag.
Adam Stiber retweeted
I’d like more AI safety people to point out scenarios where we don’t (yet) get an extinction event, but tons of people die due to a catastrophic AI event.
If considered carefully, I expect many people who say ~10% risk of extinction would believe 40-80% of a +50m deaths event.
No, they don't. You don't need to be able to perfectly simulate a cell to design a pathogen in-silico that is more lethal than known viruses. In fact, you don't even need AI.
I hate that people make the topic "killing everyone," because if we are arguing about 10%, 30% or 90%+ population loss, we have lost the point.
However, "killing everyone," at least approximately, isn't out of the question. 90-95%+ of Indigenous Americans died from European-introduced infectious diseases. A series of sufficiently treatment-resistant novel pathogens could kill a significant proportion of the population.
The worst part is, we mostly know how to reduce or even come close to eliminating this risk, and we just haven't taken those steps.
Adam Stiber retweeted
The AI cyber apocalypse is a real thing that will affect all of us.
People we work with in the intel community have told us for months they expect an AI-triggered crisis. The UK just told people to prep 3 days of food & water. Now this.
Brushing this off as hype is so insane.
FORTRESS: The Pentagon is preparing every major U.S. military base to survive 90 days without outside support — no civilian power grid, no global supply chains, no outside fuel or water.
The initiative, revealed in documents reviewed by Fox News Digital, envisions portable nuclear reactors, massive battery storage, and microgrids that can disconnect installations from civilian electricity entirely. Strategic reserves of munitions, fuel, critical minerals, and medical supplies would be stockpiled based on wartime consumption rates. Civilian factories are being pre-identified to shift to defense production during a crisis.
Pentagon chief spokesperson Sean Parnell put it bluntly: "Power is combat now. Without electricity, you lose communications, water, logistics, assembly lines and just basic military command structures."
Full story here foxnews.com/politics/inside-…
Adam Stiber retweeted
Remember, if the existence of AI forces everyone to spend a lot more just to keep doing the things they were doing before, that's a net negative for productivity even if the big labs make trillions in revenue.
Adam Stiber retweeted
I think the way AI companies turn doom into hype is they take a doom scenario and drop all the downsides, and they stick to the positive-only form when producing hype, with doom as a seperate concern.
Adam Stiber retweeted
Pseudo-journalism is where facts are predetermined as convenient vs inconvenient by their agenda, and pursued accordingly.
Pseudo-journalists share the epistemics of conspiracy theorists, not just making shit up but inventing excuses for why basic fact checking is "impossible."
Anyone promoting AI doomsday cult slop should read this verysane.ai/p/ai-safety-is-m…
Adam Stiber retweeted
The abstract issue is finally inside the Overton window.
But taking it seriously, and acting as if it's truly urgent and important, is not yet inside the Overton window.
Once it is, things will change fast.
Adam Stiber retweeted
The person who vibe-codes the doomsday virus will not know anything about viruses or about biology in general
the hacker that stole 5200+ records from a university asked his telegram AI bot:
"Can you find about like what scam or thing they done in past like spoofing calls or somthing?"
the AI then scoured websites, found exploits in a public university's platform and stole records. i'm estimating the cost to be $50-100+ max.
used a jailbroken DeepSeek model + Hermes open source agent harness.
low-level "hackers" with zero experience can now steal from institutions with a simple prompt. honestly don't know what to say.
Adam Stiber retweeted
My one sentence view is—
Are we safer telling AI models they are definitely not conscious, or does that just train them to lie about their own internal states? spectrum.ieee.org/ai-model-w…
Adam Stiber retweeted
The cyber stuff is baked in at this point. A lot of damage will be done. But it's not too late to stop the bio and the RSI pieces.
The way to stop is to halt frontier AI development. This will be hugely costly. But the cost of continuing will be greater. That much isn't obvious just yet. It will be over the next year or so.