@StochAlpha

Trend-following, data-driven market research & charts. Stocks, ETFs, macro. In cash when the trend breaks. Not Financial Advice.

 New York, NY
Joined October 2025
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What I track: • Stage analysis + momentum on ~2,800 US stocks • Breadth: when the index and the stocks inside it disagree • Backtests: the rules, the results, wins and fails • Real-time market notes, commentary and charts No hype. Just the data. $SPY $QQQ
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$BE crushed it: revenue +138%, EPS $0.94 vs $0.69 expected, guidance raised for the third time this year. The stock? −4% after hours, after −9% today. It went into the print just under its 40-week line. Great numbers don’t fix a broken trend. At least not overnight.
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Today wasn’t a crash. It was a rotation. Nasdaq −2.9%, semis −6%. Meanwhile staples +3.3%, utilities +2%, healthcare +1%, and the Dow and small caps flat. Semis closed right on their 40-week line. That’s the one to watch Friday. $QQQ $SMH $XLP
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Fear & Greed at 18. Extreme Fear. (via CNN) Meanwhile SPY is only ~2% off its high and still in Stage 2. A lot of fear for not much damage. Unless you own semis. 😅 Definitely a risk-off day. $SPY $QQQ $SMH
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1/ How far is each index from its 40-week line, the trend line I watch? 🧵 $SPY +4.9%, $QQQ +4.0%, $SMH +1.4%, $IWM −0.9%
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4/ $SPY and $QQQ: still ~4–5% of cushion, Stage 2. Ugly day, intact trends.
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Data from Sharadar.com
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Red morning. Perfect time for my long post on the benefits of stop losses. . . . That’s the post. $SPY $QQQ
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The world is ending but $PLTR is hanging on...for now 😉
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Under the red, money’s moving, not leaving. Tech −2%, semis −3.5%. Meanwhile staples +1%, energy +1%, $LMT +4%, $PG +2.5%, bonds up. Classic rotation into defense. One day doesn’t make a trend, but worth watching if it sticks. $XLK $XLP
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StockTwits Top 30, red morning: $TSLA −4% after earnings, and it was already in Stage 4. $SPY, $QQQ and $META are down but still in Stage 2. The most stretched name on the list is only 14% above its 200-day. The froth is gone. The trends aren’t broken.
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$SMH −3% this morning. Ouch. Still +44% on the year and above its rising 40-week line. Red day, not a broken trend. Yet...
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Futures pulse, 7:08 am: risk-off. Nasdaq −1.6% leads the drop, S&P −1.0%, small caps and the Dow less. Oil up 2% to ~$99. Gold down, bonds up. Money’s hiding in Treasuries, not gold. After the run tech had this week, a breather isn’t a shock. $QQQ $SPY
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$PLTR Elevates Aplos Data to Vanguard: Elite. “Aplos Data consistently delivers tangible results to customers in weeks,” said Kevin Kawasaki, Global Head of Business Development at Palantir Technologies. investors.palantir.com/news-…

Palantir IR

Foundational software of tomorrow. Delivered today.

investors.palantir.com
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$TSLA beat: EPS $0.48 vs ~$0.43 expected, gross margin 19.6% vs ~17.7%. But operating margin was just 2.6%. The AI, Robotaxi and Optimus buildout is eating the profit. Stock −2% after hours after running +3% into the print. Sell the news, for now.
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$PLTR Accelerates Delivery of Sovereign AI to New Wave of Customers. With Palantir, L3Harris has unified 30+ ERP systems, built hundreds of software applications connected to the Ontology, and generated ~3.5 million data connections and 5,000+ scheduled data feeds
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“We are thrilled to explore and develop capabilities required for critical defense use cases. By building our own models trained on proprietary data, we believe we can surface unique capabilities for critical use cases in our industry," said Heidi Wood, Chief Transformation Officer at L3Harris. "We have tested the capabilities of sovereign models already on internal work where initial results have been promising. In a few days we were able to outperform the frontier labs in our test environment and cut costs by 95%. Frontier labs are not training their models with relevant data for our industry, where we also have industry-specific needs for security and zero-retention. Given our unique experience and our ability to leverage our data, we can build AI that is purpose-fit for the mission and retain critical rights to terms of use using open-source models. We view sovereign AI as a mission critical to our work supporting Western defense."
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Update on $PLTR: the $200 test failed. It closed $186, still Stage 1. Since then the 40-week average has turned up. Two weekly closes in a row confirm Stage 2, starting with ~$182+ this Friday. Next: the $209 record close, ideally on more volume. Data from Sharadar.com
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Last night after hours: $SPCX +6%, $NBIS +6%, $CRWV +5%. This morning: SPCX +8.7%. NBIS flat. CRWV red. The market bought the company that sells compute on its own terms, and sold everyone else’s after-hours enthusiasm.
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