Active in Asset Management | trading and investing. - Probabilistic market intelligence. - Market-implied expectations, positioning & asymmetric opportunities
Joined February 2022
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Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
$UBER: The response to the Uber/Waymo Phoenix partnership end are quite dramatic imo...
Phoenix was a pilot program - that by definition is a test. It’s over because the test is complete...
Phoenix was unique: Waymo was fully established in Phoenix before partnering with Uber. It is literally ground zero for Waymo. Anyone there who wanted an AV was already using the Waymo app. The Uber partnership was a pilot likely to test user acceptance and mixed-fleet utilization. It was likely never structured to be a long term partnership.
Waymo and Uber are becoming competitors. Waymo wants to maximize its independent brand strength and awareness before Uber has a meaninful AV rollout... and they should. Losing a dozen-ish cars in Phoenix is not the end of the world. And it likely unblocks Uber to test other partners (like Zoox) in that market... we don't have pure insight into these deals for all we know there are dual direction exclusivity constraints.
Investors may be getting antsy over short-term stock stalls in price movements movement but the timeline is the timeline... Dara has been very clear about it. We are in a "show me dont tell me stage" and the show me comes late 2026 and 2027.
In the meantime, Uber is generating massive cash flow, growing, scaling the UberOne membership program, and launching new verticals.
The real rollout is late 2026/2027 and even then, AVs will be a minuscule fraction of ride-share for the next few years... you cannot flip a switch and speed up the supply chain.
The Uber Waymo pilot worked and led to rollouts in Austin and Atlanta that were likely much more fully fledged negotiation processes.
Don't see what all the fuss is about... but thats just me.
$UBER has wound down its Waymo robotaxi offering in Phoenix.
Uber said Phoenix was an intentionally limited deployment with just over a dozen vehicles, while Waymo said the program completed hundreds of thousands of trips.
Uber plans to announce a new Phoenix robotaxi partner in the future.
Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
$SPCE is getting pretty ridiculous benefiting from the $SPCX IPO tmr.
Current setup:
• Stock: $6.12
• DTE: 6 days
• ATM IV: 344%
• ATM straddle: $2.26
• Market-implied move: ±37%
The call skew is nuts.
25Δ put IV: ~320% (between $4 and $4.5 strike)
25Δ call IV: ~405% (around the $11 strike)
The stock rallied another ~30% today, yet traders are still paying a massive premium for upside exposure ahead of the SpaceX IPO.
My model caps at 400% IV, so I may need to raise that limit after this one.
Whether the market is right or wrong isn’t the point. Traders are willing to pay extraordinary prices for upside here.
One of the most extreme examples of upside call demand I’ve seen in a while.
Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
$UBER: New post out this morning on “What the Options Market is Pricing for $UBER.”
Partnered up with @Stock_Inf0 for this one. Some great insight into the options market and some unique options to play your Uber position.
Highly recommend checking it out. Link in bio.
Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
Opened a position before the close in $BE: Short BE Aug $180 puts (79 DTE).
- Spot: $287
- Strike: $180
- Premium received: $16
- Breakeven: $164
BE currently carries 122% ATM IV and an options-implied move of roughly ±$131 over the next 79 days.
1SD downside band sits at $163. The breakeven on this trade is almost identical.
The market is effectively paying me to underwrite a scenario where BE declines more than 43% from current levels over the next 79 days.
A 0.137 delta strike, strong premium, and a breakeven near the modeled 1SD downside range made the setup attractive enough to take.
The chart looks quite good as well, high momentum name. Consolidating around the 10 and 20 daily MAs. Rising 50D EMA.
Could definitely break down and drop fast, but we have the cushion and the time to manage if necesary.
Position size remains small, but willing to add if the stock breaks out above the ATH again.
Always do your own DD.
Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
A harsh reality
Are you out to turn a little into a lot in a hurry?
Look folks, there has been tons of research done on the success rate of retail traders. By exchanges, regulatory agencies, brokerage houses, trading platforms, academic researchers and the like.
The numbers are in and you are a fool to begin with if you think your are an outlier -- although all retail traders think they are outliers (and they usually are on the left side of the bell curve distribution).
Expectations and eagerness to trade for the sake of money are inversely correlated with success. Sorry, but true (of course except for in your dream world).
You want to turn $50k into $5 million in five years? Well, go for it if you that is your dream. But know that professional career traders in zero-sum markets (like futures, day trading anything and crypto) plead with you to trade their asset class. Please, I beg you to trade futures (my asset class).
Fresh meat is always welcomed.
Maybe you are among the 2 in 1,000 that can with a few years of experience achieve back-to-back-to back-100% years. I do not want to do anything to prevent your effort. I wish you well. In 50 years I've witnessed many try.
Or, do you have realistic profit expectations and want to become excellent in some niche of market speculation?
Then you have a chance.
But your chance depends on your ability to protect your capital and avoid big losses.
Here is the reality folks -- the real world where 99% of us live.
Pick your asset class. Now have adequate capital (the amt is disputable but I use the figure of $50k). Next know that no matter what you do it will take three to five years to even pick up the scent of where your excellence might be hiding.
Your challenge will be to develop some scheme or system or approach that is repeatable. Every successful trader has a different method. No exceptions. You cannot copy anyone. There are reasons why I won't go into.
You might have to try a few different approaches to find what methods are suitable to you.
But here is the HUGE challenge you face.
You will have to keep your capital intact (relatively speaking) or have deep pockets to get through the three to five years of the steep learning curve.
You will also need to avoid the fast talkers who want you to believe they have your answers.
Following are appeals I received via email in just the past week from "reputable" trading services (these are verbatim):
-$10,000 into $30,417. 14 out of 20 trades doubled
-that's a 1,004% return in 6 days, turning a $605 bet into $6,684
-1004% on UMAC
- +100% on BBAI in a day
-See how stock flips could have made $92,000 in one year!
-Soured 1,025% in just six months
-convinced this could be this year's next 1,000%
You fall for these lines, you are done for. Another reality is that not everyone is made for crazy success in trading. Most people would be better off living frugally and putting as much money as they can into a 50% SPY, 30% fixed income, 10% energy and 10% precious metals portfolio and let it work over time. Then pursue a day job that excites you.
So, don't be conned by the circus acts that promise you the moon. Trading is hard work. Tedious. Boring often. Stressful.
My standard recommendation to most young people is to get an education in a field that you like and where jobs are available. Like welding. Or supply chain management. Or engineering.
98% of you young folks will thank me for this advice someday.
Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
Most $IREN investors don't yet grasp how profitable the 60 MW $NVDA deal actually is.
Despite being just 20% of the MW capacity, it yields more cumulative net income than the 300 MW $MSFT agreement.
This is a direct result of $IREN locking in stronger terms.
Now that $IREN is quickly establishing itself as one of the premier cloud providers with the deepest pipeline in the industry, I expect future deals to land at similar profit margins.
Considering the price action since last earnings, the market clearly hasn't priced that in yet.
Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
Top 20 Best Performing stocks of the past week by market cap.
The top 5 of each segment:
- Small: $SPCE, $UMAC, $APPS, $CRSR, and $REPL
- Mid: $BRAI, $RCAT, $RDW, $ONDS, and $AVEX
- Large: $SNOW, $NTAP, $OKTA, $SMCI, and $TEAM
- Mega: $DELL, $MU, $APP, $ORCL, and $ARM
Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
Markets enter the week with the $VIX at 15.3, near the lower end of its 52-week range.
At the same time:
• U.S.–Iran headline risk remains elevated
• Breadth remains narrow
• AI leadership remains crowded
• Volatility is pricing a relatively calm week ahead
The trend remains constructive. Although some of the strong leaders like $AXTI and $LITE have seen consolidation this week.
The question is whether stability is being priced too confidently.
Asymmetric Opportunities - Week Ahead is now live.
We break down: → expected moves across $SPY, bitcoin:native , $GLD , and $USO (Oil) → volatility structure $VIX→ positioning & flows → narrative vs pricing disconnects → the key catalysts that could force repricing
Link below.
Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
$DELL moving way more than the market was pricing in. More than 3x move compared to what was priced in.
Short vol on this one would have hurt through earnings.
$DELL earnings after the close.
The options market is pricing a ±9.9% move.
Historical average move over the last 8 quarters: ~9.7%
What’s notable: the implied move is almost perfectly aligned with realized history.
3 of the last 8 quarters exceeded the implied range, including: -17.9%, -12.3%, +21.9%
This is not a typical “IV massively overpricing earnings” setup.
The market is effectively acknowledging that Dell has become a high-beta AI infrastructure proxy where positioning and guidance matter as much as the quarter itself.
The key variable tonight: whether AI server demand and backlog commentary continue to justify the infrastructure premium currently embedded across the trade.
Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
What’s interesting about $CIBR here is the disconnect between price extension and what the options market is actually pricing forward.
Despite the second-largest ATR extension since inception:
- Spot: ~$85
- ATM straddle: ~$10
- 1SD range: $73 – $97
- 2SD range $60 - $110
The market still isn’t pricing a truly euphoric blow-off distribution.
That usually happens near major secular leadership transitions: price action looks extreme, while implied forward distributions remain relatively contained.
Momentum often persists longer than people expect precisely because positioning never reaches full disbelief exhaustion.
This is based on the August expiration.
Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
$INTU down over 50%.
Yet:
- downside skew is basically flat
- put IV ≈ call IV
- ATM IV still ~55%
- 209D straddle (closest to EOY) still implies ~33% movement.
That’s not how markets typically price structurally “broken” assets.
The equity market repriced valuation.
The options market appears to be repricing uncertainty instead.
Very different signal.
$INTU officially the worst YTD performer in the S&P, down 54%.
The "quality compounder" narrative works until it doesn't.
A lot of assumptions are baked into those high PE multiples whether you realize it or not. Multiple compression can be painful.
A company can fundamentally grow and still prove to be a bad investment.
Valuation always matters.
Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
What’s interesting about $CCJ is how much upside convexity the options market is already willing to price into the uranium narrative.
Spot: ~$105
- ATM straddle: ~$37 (January expiration)
- 1SD upside: ~$151
- 2SD upside: ~$197
That’s an exceptionally wide forward distribution for a mega-cap materials name.
The market is effectively pricing a decent probability that the uranium cycle becomes structurally larger and longer than consensus currently models. Something both of us have been quite sure about since a few years.
The volatility is the price of the scarcity optionality.
Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
High-IV distributions start behaving very differently from what most people intuitively expect.
Let's take $AXTI for example.
Current setup:
- Spot: $139.93
- ATM straddle price (90DTE): ~$82.20
- 1SD range: $33 – $247
- 2SD: downside mathematically below zero - $353.8
That does NOT mean the market is pricing in a high likelihood of bankruptcy.
It means implied volatility has become so extreme that the lower tail of the distribution collides with the asset’s hard lower boundary.
Equities have:
- capped downside
- uncapped upside
Which is why very high-IV distributions become heavily asymmetric in price space.
@aleabitoreddit is one of these guys that has been able to pick some of the best opportunities over the last year.
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter.
What matters is return %. Speaking of that...
YTD: 3840.39%.
I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe.
Do you remember these thesis anon?
1. $AXTI
2. $SIVE
3. $AAOI
4. $LITE
5. $IQE
6. $AEHR
7. $CRCL
8. $EWY
9. Unimicron
10. Nitto Boseki
11. $OSS
12. $GDRZF
13. $RPI
14. $SOI
15. $ALRIB
16. $SNDK
17. $SIMO
18. $VPG
19. $TSEM
20. $ARM
21. $MRVL
22. $INTC
23. $LPK
24. $NBIS
25. $MU
They're all up 100-1000%+, because...
1. I post a thesis.
2. People can see how the stock performs months later.
3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns.
I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets.
Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns.
So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages.
TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis.
Not the dollar amount made.
Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
What’s funny about the $OUST bull case is that even with IV above 100%, the options market still refuses to fully price the type of upside people are talking about.
- Spot: ~$37
- 607D ATM straddle ( January '28, furthest available stike: ~$37
- 2SD upside: ~$134
So the market is basically saying: “Sure, there’s massive convexity here… but we still don’t believe the $180 scenario.”
So while your case is definitely plausible, the likelihood for the time being doesn't seem to high.
I made the calculation as well with the same IV numbers on a 1300DTE case and even then the market would give you odds of just 5% to reach $180 by 2030.
That’s the entire game in high-convexity equities:
Not whether the story sounds crazy. But, whether the probability is mispriced.
Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
What stands out in $ASTS right now is how compressed the near-term implied distribution still is relative to the narrative intensity around the name.
- Spot: $105.65
- ATM straddle (for this 29th May expiration): ~$11.40
- 1SD range into expiry: $93 – $118
- 2SD upside: $81 -$131
- Market Maker expected range: $94.25 - $117,05
On a stock dominated by positioning discussions, the options market is still pricing a far narrower realized distribution than most of FinTwit discourse suggests.
The real question isn’t whether volatility exists.
It’s whether realized movement can actually exceed what’s already implied.
Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
$SEZL +13% AH. Big Q!
2027 Guidance raised to $5.10 EPS
“Average quarterly purchase frequency reached a new Company high of 7.1x and Active Subscribers grew 48.4% year over year, reflecting the growing value consumers see in Sezzle.
GMV increased 37.3% YoY to $1.1 billion, supported by record average quarterly purchase frequency of 7.1x
Total Revenue grew 29.2% YoY to $135.5 million, representing 12.2% of GMV
Net Income increased 41.9% YoY
Adj Net Income increased 41.5% YoY
EPS $1.47, Adj-EPS $1.43
Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
Short-term
- Higher inflation punishes #GOLD and #silver
- Middle-Eastern governments and people are probably looking for liquidity.
- Profit taking after a historical rally
- traders getting stop losses hit, especially in #silver
Long-term:
- de-dollarization remains a clear trend which is clear support for gold and silver
- central banks across the globe plan to continue further increasing its gold reserves
- silver is becoming more and more crucial in industrial processes.
Long-term the precious metals should be fine. But, short-term we can see a lot of potential (as we see today). This is coming from someone who is invested in gold and silver to be clear.
Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
$NBIS Core Assumptions Underpinning Fair-Value Targets
✅ ARR reaches $7B–$9B and is sustained as annual run-rate revenue.
✅ Valuation multiple reflects high-growth cloud peers.
Asymmetric Opportunities retweeted
New $IREN Deep Dive
Over the past couple of weeks I’ve been working on a new deep dive laying out why $IREN is one of the best picks for 2026.
The report covers $IREN's near term catalysts, the company’s fundamental setup, and my newly updated $IREN price target.
Spoiler: my new 2026 price target is MULTIPLES above the current share price.
I didn’t just shoot in the dark for this PT. I modelled out what upcoming hyperscaler deals could look like using our proprietary tool, then took the projected 2027 earnings, applied a reasonable forward PE multiple, and backed into the 2026 target.
Honestly, I think this is one of my best research pieces to date. In many ways it’s a natural continuation of the free deep dive we published when launching Agrippa Investments on Substack.
I went deeper on a few key topics like the power shortage, $IREN's construction flywheel, and addressed some of the concerns floating around about the $MSFT deal.
Given the incredible fundamental setup, there is no other company I am more bullish on than $IREN.
I am confident 2026 will shape up to be an incredible year for the company and the stock.
If you have already read the new deep dive, let me know what you thought of it. Really appreciate the feedback, cheers!
agrippa.investments/p/realit…
