Pro Poker Player | Mathematician Investing AI stocks Tradingview https://xitter.gq/t.co/PzboS8F22y Substack https://xitter.gq/t.co/yDXhuFQC0X
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Over in 7 minutes
About right
-If the market is able to absorb this and $NVDA closes green
-we are close if not at the bottom
-if we leg down again... then it's not over
-$NVDA looks like a ~3-4% knee jerk reaction
-The statement from NVDA about keeping him on as CEO stopped the bleeding instantly
-we'll see how this is digested over the next 24h
All CEO's and politicians need some kind of Chinese honeypot self defense training
New startup idea
$NVDA CEO JENSEN HUANG’S DRAFT MEMO TO EMPLOYEES, OBTAINED BY AXIOS.
“I owe my family and all of you an apology.”
“I was unfaithful to my wife. My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did. I am deeply sorry.”
“Leading NVIDIA is the privilege of my life.”
“I am fully committed to NVIDIA and will work to earn back your confidence.”
Regarding the national security investigation:
“I support the investigation and will cooperate fully.”
“My family bears no responsibility for my choices. I do. Please give them privacy.”
NVIDIA’s board has launched an independent investigation into reports that Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort.
The board says it currently has no reason to believe U.S. national security or NVIDIA’s secrets were compromised.
This is a big deal
Jensen is prob at least 10% value added to NVDA stock
Just like Elon is 30%+ to TSLA + SpaceX
Some people are irreplaceable
NVIDIA SAYS JENSEN HUANG WILL REMAIN CEO AMID PROBE
Nvidia ($NVDA ) says CEO Jensen Huang will continue leading the company without interruption, despite news of an investigation.
In a message to employees, Huang acknowledged being unfaithful to his wife, took full responsibility and pledged to rebuild trust.
A Nvidia spokesperson emphasized that Huang remains fully committed to his role as CEO.
If $AAOI went up after announcing delays
Expectations are in the dumpster
Prices suggest significant margin compression + value destruction
Wouldn't be surprised to see a violent short term squeeze this week, lots of covering needs to take place
Tom retweeted
Our spend on DataDog is too high ->
Hey Opus 5.5 switch everything to Grafana and VictoriaMetrics ->
1 day later we spend 38x less on all logs, alerts, and graphs. No loss of functionality.
Tom retweeted
Nomura: "We believe that mainstream Democrats are not opposed to AI itself...The fact that data centers are a core resource in the AI race with China should limit how long any temporary pause can last."
AI is now a bipartisan trade; huge overreaction to the Democratic sweep.
Image credits to @mkfilko
I'll take this out every now and then. Important questions of self reflection during these times.
I would also advise self-reflection during bull markets, as they are the other side of tilt, and many people begin doing stupid things due to overconfidence.
I think a interesting question is
Would we still be having these discussions if we had the same election results but stocks went up 10%?
In poker this is known as "results oriented thinking". Sometimes make a perfect play 10x in a row and lose 9x.
This causes what are sometimes excellent players to adjust their strategy and enter a downward spiral.
I highly recommend folks review @aleabitoreddit 4+ year old Reddit history. He found arbitrage bets and posted them, but no one had any idea what he was talking about.
Overtime he learned to hyper-dumb-down his ideas, so he can reach a larger audience. There is no reason for him to do this.
Tom retweeted
Nice DeepSWE score! Does it survive a lowercase filename?
Introducing MaxxBench: 89 DeepSWE tasks with small changes to the instructions or starting code. Same engineering problem, slightly different requirement.
Models clustered around 74% on DeepSWE end up 23 pp apart.
Good at coding, or good at DeepSWE? 🧵
Global tech earnings Nov 9–13, 2026
Monday, Nov 9
$TLS $MNDY $4901.T $HIVE $QLYS $RXT $9434.T $TTWO $DSP
Tuesday, Nov 10
$QBTS $AMPX $CRWV $NRGV $EVLV $RGTI $9984.T
Wednesday, Nov 11
$ENS $GRID.TO $ENR.DE (call)
Thursday, Nov 12
$AERT $CLBT $NBIS $AMAT $CSCO $SMSI $2317.TW $SIE.DE
Friday, Nov 13
$4755.T
Anthropic IPO in ~2-3 weeks
Between now and then AI stocks will...?
16%0-25%
14%25%+
34%Chop sideways
36%It's over (learn Chinese)
44 votes • 6 hours-40% of tax revenue comes from 3% of land
-40% of federal income tax comes from top 1%
Government's idea, lets get rid of these 2 starting with Elon Musk (the most productive human in history?)
Tom retweeted
I don’t care how you feel about Soros as a person or his politics. He was a genius.
He was a hedgefund philosopher before there were underperforming hedgefunds.
The guy is sitting there in the 80s with rampant insider trading and assets divorced from reality, probably smoking a pipe, explaining not that people are stupid, but WHY they are stupid. How they become that way, how they become more that way, and how their delusion unbecomes.
Imagine having the audacity to say “all of this conventional wisdom - Ben Graham, intrinsic value - this is all wrong and here’s why: you’re holding each others hands.”
The solution is not to avoid the delusion but to feed it. Goddamn it that’s beautiful.
Soros: At some point every bubble will experience the big *test*, where the reflexive feedback loop flips from positive to negative. During the test, the market will try to take out the highly leveraged bulls. You do not want to own the asset during the test.
But if the market fails to push down prices enough to clear out all the bulls, then you have the greenlight to jump back in with even more size than before the test. The failure to clear out the bulls proves the broader trend is incredibility resilient.
After the test, the next phase of the bubble is the acceleration phase where it extends much higher and much longer than anyone expects.
In today's case with AI, perhaps if the market was to learn over the next few weeks/months that AI is resilient to the political cycle, then we could enter the acceleration phase?