@StoneHarborEMD

Stone Harbor, a division of Virtus Fixed Income Advisers, LLC, is an emerging markets debt manager with 3 decades of informed fixed income investing experience.

 New York, NY
shipemd.com/
Joined March 2021
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251Media
Weekly Comments on Credit As EM fundamentals improve and DM debt concerns grow, a shrinking volatility premium suggests it might be time to reassess the risks between EM and DM credit. bit.ly/4i3TCpV
The chart shows that the volatility differential between emerging market and developed market sovereign debt has declined since 2023.

ALT The chart shows that the volatility differential between emerging market and developed market sovereign debt has declined since 2023.

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Higher rates, geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices challenged EM debt in 3Q26—but opportunities remain. Stone Harbor’s latest outlook highlights credit differentiation, reform momentum and AI-driven demand. More: bit.ly/481u5aL #EmergingMarkets #EMDebt @virtus
Aerial view of Cape Town’s coastline with Green Point Stadium in front and Table Mountain in the distance, surrounded by ocean and cityscape.

ALT Aerial view of Cape Town’s coastline with Green Point Stadium in front and Table Mountain in the distance, surrounded by ocean and cityscape.

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Once seen as a long shot, Flávio Bolsonaro now appears poised to become Brazil’s next president, with Polymarket assigning him an 80% probability of victory. See this week’s Weekly Comments on Credit for more emerging markets insights. bit.ly/4B94pGD
Line chart showing Polymarket odds of Flávio Bolsonaro winning Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, rising from near zero in December to about 80% in October

ALT Line chart showing Polymarket odds of Flávio Bolsonaro winning Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, rising from near zero in December to about 80% in October

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Weekly Comments on Credit Despite forecasts for a strong 2026-27 El Nino, water levels at Ecuador’s Mazar reservoir remain manageable. See this week’s Weekly Comments on Credit for more emerging markets insights. bit.ly/4hDNNiD
Line chart comparing Mazar reservoir water levels in 2026 with historical ranges, the 2023 El Nino year, the 2024 blackout year, and the critical level

ALT Line chart comparing Mazar reservoir water levels in 2026 with historical ranges, the 2023 El Nino year, the 2024 blackout year, and the critical level

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Weekly Comments on Credit Mongolia’s external and general government debt have both declined sharply from their peaks, reaching roughly one-third of GDP by 2026. See this week’s Weekly Comments on Credit for more emerging markets insights. bit.ly/3Tvl8TH
Ministry of Finance of Mongolia, National Statistics Office of Mongolia, Haver Analytics, Stone Harbor Investment Partners. For illustrative purposes only.

ALT Ministry of Finance of Mongolia, National Statistics Office of Mongolia, Haver Analytics, Stone Harbor Investment Partners. For illustrative purposes only.

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Weekly Comments on Credit This week we look at the surge in South Korea’s current account balance due to the boom in AI-related semiconductor exports. bit.ly/4cRnOBB
Chart shows the surge in South Korea’s current account balance since 2023 due to the boom in AI-related semiconductor exports.

ALT Chart shows the surge in South Korea’s current account balance since 2023 due to the boom in AI-related semiconductor exports.

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Weekly Comments on Credit This week we look at the surge in Sri Lankan monthly remittances that are helping the economy absorb the fiscal shocks from higher oil prices. bit.ly/4cJAomc
Chart shows surge in monthly remittance inflows into Sri Lanka in July this year following reforms to remittance channels after the 2022 currency crisis.

ALT Chart shows surge in monthly remittance inflows into Sri Lanka in July this year following reforms to remittance channels after the 2022 currency crisis.

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Weekly Comments on Credit This week we look at the surge in coffee futures prices as investors demand a weather premium in anticipation of El Nino risks to coffee production. bit.ly/4xT7oAw
Chart shows the sharp rise in coffee futures prices as investors demand a weather premium in anticipation of El Nino disruption risks to coffee production.

ALT Chart shows the sharp rise in coffee futures prices as investors demand a weather premium in anticipation of El Nino disruption risks to coffee production.

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Weekly Comments on Credit This week we look at the surge in Serbia’s labor productivity since 2020 due to structural reforms tied to the EU accession process. bit.ly/3RUPLkK
Chart shows the surge in Serbia’s labor productivity since 2020 due to structural reforms tied to the EU accession process.

ALT Chart shows the surge in Serbia’s labor productivity since 2020 due to structural reforms tied to the EU accession process.

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Weekly Comments on Credit This week we look at how the Democratic Republic of Congo’s copper boom has secured macroeconomic credibility and benchmark status. bit.ly/4q4rUeY
Chart shows surge in monthly copper production in the Democratic Republic of Congo since 2016.

ALT Chart shows surge in monthly copper production in the Democratic Republic of Congo since 2016.

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Weekly Comments on Credit This week we look at the 74% surge in Brazilian oil production since 2015, which has boosted revenue, strengthening external accounts and credit fundamentals. bit.ly/4fQejDl
Chart shows the 74% surge in Brazilian crude oil production since 2015.

ALT Chart shows the 74% surge in Brazilian crude oil production since 2015.

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A look at the huge surge in expatriate remittances to Egypt since 2024 currency reforms that allowed the Egyptian pound to float, inspiring greater confidence in the currency to absorb external shocks & encouraging greater use of official banking channels. bit.ly/4pDbutL
Chart shows the huge surge in expatriate remittances to Egypt since the 2024 currency reforms that have allowed the Egyptian pound to float, inspiring greater confidence in the currency to absorb external shocks.

ALT Chart shows the huge surge in expatriate remittances to Egypt since the 2024 currency reforms that have allowed the Egyptian pound to float, inspiring greater confidence in the currency to absorb external shocks.

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Investment Policy Statement - July 2026 A key question for global oil prices as the Iran war resumes is if the big drop in Chinese oil demand continues. bit.ly/4fuoop7 #bonds #emergingmarkets
Globe

ALT Globe

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This week we look at the surge in the oil refining premium to an all-time high as disruption of refining infrastructure from the Iran and Ukraine wars has reduced refining capacity and kept gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices elevated. bit.ly/4wcgmIQ
Bloomberg, Stone Harbor Investment Partners For illustrative purposes only.

ALT Bloomberg, Stone Harbor Investment Partners For illustrative purposes only.

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Weekly Comments on Credit This week we look at Mexico’s surging trade surplus with the U.S. as U.S importers seek to diversify away from Chinese suppliers to reduce tariff exposure risk. bit.ly/4vrAB4a
Banco de Mexico, Haver Analytics, Stone Harbor Investment Partners For illustrative purposes only.

ALT Banco de Mexico, Haver Analytics, Stone Harbor Investment Partners For illustrative purposes only.

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This week we look at the record-breaking investment inflows into Nigeria, helped by policy rates and elevated oil prices. bit.ly/3Qly2lK
Chart shows record foreign investment inflows into Nigeria since 2024.

ALT Chart shows record foreign investment inflows into Nigeria since 2024.

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Weekly Comments on Credit This week we look at the upward migration of emerging sovereign credit ratings into the BB+ territory as a higher-quality universe supports tighter spreads, deeper participation, and more durable access to credit. bit.ly/4e8G1f2
Chart shows upward migration of aggregate EM credit ratings into BB+ territory since 2018.

ALT Chart shows upward migration of aggregate EM credit ratings into BB+ territory since 2018.

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Weekly Comments on Credit This week we look at the record surge in Argentine exports, led by fuel and energy exports and breaking two decades of stagnation. bit.ly/4ugwNlC
Chart shows record surge in Argentine exports in the first four months of 2026 with energy exports the main driver.

ALT Chart shows record surge in Argentine exports in the first four months of 2026 with energy exports the main driver.

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Weekly Comments on Credit This week we look at Kyrgyzstan’s FX reserves, which have surged to near-record highs on gold price gains, strengthening external buffers. bit.ly/4nW9rQL
Chart shows a surge in Kyrgyz foreign reserves to ~$10 billion by 2026 from $2–3 billion through 2023.

ALT Chart shows a surge in Kyrgyz foreign reserves to ~$10 billion by 2026 from $2–3 billion through 2023.

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Weekly Comments on Credit This week we look at Ecuador’s record high FX reserves in April, boosted by the scrapping of diesel subsidies and a surge in non-oil exports. bit.ly/3PoUvxu
Chart shows surge in Ecuador’s FX reserves to an all-time high as a result of scrapping diesel subsidies and strong non-oil exports.

ALT Chart shows surge in Ecuador’s FX reserves to an all-time high as a result of scrapping diesel subsidies and strong non-oil exports.

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