This is my long-term base case for $BTC USD is going to zero when priced in sats May or may not be more pain in store for hodlers but don't get too cute trying to play the dollar long

$BTC daily fib fans

"brutal year" ➡ -8% "outflows from ETFs are signal" ➡ net flows +$57B "bitcoin will never break its all-time high again" ➡ 🍿 I'm fading his call with my life savings 👊

The last two parabolic bitcoin runs aligned with megaphone breakouts on the IGV software ETF. We ain't seen nothing yet.

The descending broadening wedge remains intact as $BTC holds the line at the 50 day SMA on CME futures and the spot ETFs. As long as this pattern holds, it favors a move above the yearly open rather than a retest of the 200 day SMA.

$BTC daily The 365 SMA (blue) and EMA (yellow) are reliable long-term indications of a bullish or bearish regime. The bullish break above these MAs in September was explosive, and it spent the next month consolidating inside the range of just one of these candles. This kind of volatility contraction can lead to spectacular and sustained expansion, but when it slipped below the range this weekend, all we saw was a measured pullback into support. Bollinger Bands are also not confirming a breakdown. The bands continue to contract, and so far there is not a single close below the bands. But we have a lot of wicks below and closes above, suggesting a potential liquidity sweep and seller exhaustion. Given that we are in a fresh bullish regime, above possibly the most significant moving average ribbon that exists on the daily chart, I can't be too concerned about this 9.5% pullback after a 50%+ rally off the lows. I'm gonna let it cook some more and see what shapes up into this FOMC Wednesday and midterms. While bulls are vulnerable in the short-term, we remain in full control in the big picture.

$BTC weekly That was a weak sauce weekly close bros. Losing the 10 SMA reduces the odds of a quick bounce to new highs, and improves the odds of a deeper retrace into the mid 70's. However, it is worth noting that both the ETFs and CME futures closed the week above the 10 SMA (not shown). Bulls also have potential support from the 50 and 100 EMAs, as well as the trendline connecting the May and August highs. That said, I give SMAs and horizontals more weight than EMAs and diagonals, and I also give spot BTC more weight than the ETFs or futures. So as much as I love to bull post, I've gotta respect the potential for a choppier November than I hoped for. We'll be looking for follow through one way or the other into the monthly close to help us set expectations for November.

$BTC needs to find its footing here, otherwise it opens the door to the mid 70's.

$BTC CME futures test the daily 50 SMA for the first time today.

$BTC daily fib fans

$BTC CME futures weekly Closed above the 10 SMA with the first hollow red candle since April 2025, and it is also an inverted hammer. Spot often follows suit, so this increases the odds that spot will hold the 10 SMA through the weekly close.

$BTC closes day 31 inside the body of the September 21st candle. Once again, we are near the bottom of the range, with support intact. Sticking to my guns. This is near maximum R/R for longs. Not where you want to flip bearish.

Bitcoin is up more than 130% versus memory stocks since the June low. As of today's close, IBIT is more expensive than DRAM.

$BTC weekly This has the potential for a shockingly bullish reversal. Looking for a close above the 10 SMA.

As discouraging as this price action can be, the descending broadening wedge is intact and targets a break above the green line. But it wants to fill the 80,825 gap and test the lower bounds + 50 SMA first. CME futures paints a cleaner picture than spot $BTC right now.

Bitcoin has a history of testing the 50 SMA about 100 days after it bottoms, then going on a monster run. Keep an open mind to better-than-expected outcomes.