🌽🍞Surplus Cornbread🌽🍞 (@SurplusCornbre1) header
🌽🍞Surplus Cornbread🌽🍞 (@SurplusCornbre1) profile picture

Member of @atldemsoc Peace, Land, Cornbread. He/him/dumbass Unreformed Yakubian The Internet's Nicest Tankie™ Avatar by @mildfowl Bluesky in website

Stolen Muscogee Land
Joined March 2019
Photo by 🌽🍞Surplus Cornbread🌽🍞 (@SurplusCornbre1)Photo by 🌽🍞Surplus Cornbread🌽🍞 (@SurplusCornbre1)Photo by 🌽🍞Surplus Cornbread🌽🍞 (@SurplusCornbre1)Photo by 🌽🍞Surplus Cornbread🌽🍞 (@SurplusCornbre1)Photo by 🌽🍞Surplus Cornbread🌽🍞 (@SurplusCornbre1)Photo by 🌽🍞Surplus Cornbread🌽🍞 (@SurplusCornbre1)Photo by 🌽🍞Surplus Cornbread🌽🍞 (@SurplusCornbre1)Photo by 🌽🍞Surplus Cornbread🌽🍞 (@SurplusCornbre1)Photo by 🌽🍞Surplus Cornbread🌽🍞 (@SurplusCornbre1)Photo by 🌽🍞Surplus Cornbread🌽🍞 (@SurplusCornbre1)
Yeah this is important. Despite the attempt to claim "moderates" won this election, what a "moderate" looks like in 2026 is calling for universal healthcare, trials for the whole Trump organization, and a guy who called for understanding Palestinian perspectives in October 2023
I've seen versions of this cope and they all ignore how many seats Dems started with. The "smart take" was that it would be hard for them to crack 230 bc they had so many swing seats already - Rs entered the cycle with just two members in districts won by Kamala. The biggest GOP House majority since the New Deal was the 2014 majority of 247 seats. Dems have already zoomed past that. And their big New Deal era majorities relied on Solid South conservatives who were replaced by Rs long ago. A majority of this size, where the most conservative member is Henry Cuellar (a pro-life Hispanic who's otherwise a normal liberal), is brand new.
1
79
So rather than fire any of the men who've made his administration a disaster (off the top of my head you've got Hegseth, Voight, Miller, or Rubio), he fires the Chief of Staff woman no one cared about to promote one of his ghouls. The streak of "never fire a man" continues.
1
53
🌽🍞Surplus Cornbread🌽🍞 retweeted
Chapo fucking sold out
Listen to the first full episode of CENTCOM's new podcast "Inside CENTCOM" — out now on podcast platforms or on YouTube: youtube.com/@centcom
24
84
2
3,575
72,644
Man, its kind of funny that all hawkish thinking simply comes down to "don't siege Leningrad, just take it"
Mr. Vice-President, Please allow me to present a different perspective. The problem was not the Iran War. It was the cease fire. If you start a war, you need to win it and finish it – otherwise don’t start it. This war should have been over six months ago, with the Strait of Hormuz wide open and oil flowing. The second and third tiers of Iranian leadership should have been destroyed, and we should have supported the pro-western forces who could have taken leadership. We stood on the brink of a new, more peaceful Middle East - and then we blinked. We had a chance not only to deny Iran nuclear weapons, but to get rid of the world’s biggest supporter of terrorism. Instead, we had a cease fire, which was followed by months of will we or won’t we finish the job. Every day was a different message. There still is. Is the war over? Is it about to begin? No one knows. There is confusion and inconsistency. In June 2025, America was not involved. This was an Israel vs Iran issue. No one forced the United States to attack Iran then, or in February of 2026. It was a decision made by President Trump. In my opinion, it was the right decision. Once the decision was made, we should not have stopped until the regime fell. But instead, you negotiated a cease fire that didn’t last, didn’t work and left us in no man’s land, with higher prices and our troops still deployed. Our troops could have been home, the Navy returned to its bases, a peaceful regime in place , new alliances forged, and gas prices below $3.00 a gallon. No, Mr. Vice President. It’s not the war. It’s the so-called cease fire.
6
112
Nate's right and however much his commentary might be annoying at times and his politics are not my own, as an election forecaster he's still (and always was) best in the biz. But this gets at how we can think about when a "prediction market" is adding value to seeing the future
Give me a break, the polls and models provided the direction in contast to vibes and dumb insiders. And yes it's good that traders were smart enough to trust them. But the better election models were more confident about the outcome than the markets and got there more quickly.
1
70
The value of these gamblers in that moment of "shit we've actually got to be correct now" is passing along information to ignorant people about what the good data is. Only people already knew what the good data was since 08 when Silver and poll/vote modeling got famous.
1
8
So the value of a prediction market is only where true data is obscure, and if you just learn to go to the true data you get better information than the market gives you. Thus its irresponsible for news orgs to push these markets because they're obscuring the best information.
8
South Carolina voters out here shitting on Lindsay Graham's grave and its beautiful!
Decision Desk HQ projects Annie Andrews wins the SC US Senate General Election #DecisionMade: 9:54 PM EST Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/rac…
1
63
WE'VE GOT A DEMOCRAT GOVERNOR WHO PROMISED TO FUND MARTA! DEMOCRACY IS COMING TO THE USA! youtube.com/watch?v=DU-RuR-q…
1
74
I think you can probably explain at least 1/3rd of the popular backlash to AI by how hamfistedly companies try to force its usage. A really easy intuition is no company tries to force you to use a product that primarily helps you the consumer.
4
98
Even if you think Ossoff has this, the state level races look close! Don't let someone who'll call every vote in metro Atlanta "illegal" if Trump says so be in charge of our elections for 2028!
No nazis. No KKK. No fascist USA. Get out there, vote, & let’s flip this shit.
2
4
152
🌽🍞Surplus Cornbread🌽🍞 retweeted
No nazis. No KKK. No fascist USA. Get out there, vote, & let’s flip this shit.
46
82
3
765
7,268
🌽🍞Surplus Cornbread🌽🍞 retweeted
Atlanta, today is Election Day! 🌹 Today will be the difference between continuing with a status quo government that prioritizes billionaires and corporations, and a new one that will fight for working people. Find your polling site at mvp.sos.ga.gov
1
3
10
504
🌽🍞Surplus Cornbread🌽🍞 retweeted
There’s more evidence that your wife slept with Elon Musk than whatever bullshit you’re trying to cook up here.
Not one Democrat state — not one — has either a.) checked the citizenship status of their voter file or b.) shared their voter records with DHS to check citizenship. The total number of illegal and non-citizen voters is astronomical.
14
82
2
906
11,069
If we're being honest here...as long as the right to vote for an opposition party exists, you can in fact vote out fascism. There are examples of this going back to the 80s/90s, but there's also a string of examples in the past few years.
This is quite something ! Serbian RTV channel starts yesterday's bulletin by apologizing to viewers👇 "For years, we failed to fulfill our duty. We kept silent, turned a blind eye, reported events one-sidedly and failed to ask necessary questions. We owe our viewers an apology”
1
3
117
Know Lula by his enemies!
Fuck Lula it’s time we give him the Maduro treatment!
2
81