I got the idea to run a challenge for myself: put in just $50 and try to make something scalping.
Let this be a kind of discipline for me, and this page a public diary / trading journal. Most likely I’ll post every day: a report with the balance, what worked, what didn’t, what needs fixing, and where I screwed up.
As for you, the observers, it’ll be a bit of entertainment: watch me keep losing (hence the $50, so I can restart endlessly if needed while refining my system), or see whether I actually manage to make something.
One thing upfront: I’ll only scalp BTC. Hoping market volatility doesn’t dry up completely.
If you want to support me, you can sign up on the exchange through my link: omni.variational.io/?ref=OMN…
$Anthropic
Buying Anthropic at the IPO: step into the future or pay for its demise?
1. What are we buying
Anthropic develops Claude and sells access to individuals and businesses. The especially important segments are corporate subscriptions, the API, and tools for programming, workflow automation, and building AI agents.
Do you know even one IT guy who works without AI these days? Me neither.
Net loss for H1: $80.7B
Revenue for the half-year: $16.3B vs $1.2B a year earlier. For comparison, all of 2025 was around $4.6B.
Now about that $80.7B loss. Around $72B of it is a paper revaluation of convertible bonds.
But there’s a fundamental problem too: models are expensive to develop and run. Anthropic has taken on massive infrastructure commitments, around $800B over a ten-year horizon. In short, it’s everything we love: the company promises to get rich and make us rich along with it.
2. What is Anthropic really worth
The market is discussing a valuation of $1.5T to $2T.
At $1.5T valuationAt $2T valuationUsing Q3 Ă— 4 (~$67B)22Ă—30Ă—Using H1 Ă— 2 (~$32.6B)~46Ă—~61Ă—
At a $1.5T market cap, an investor pays roughly $22 for every dollar of annual revenue, if the company can keep up its Q3 pace. At $2T, almost $30.
For an ordinary business, that’s extremely expensive. For a company growing at this rate in a potentially huge market, the market may consider such a price justified. But then a lot of future success is already priced in.
Should you buy?
Since we’re not discussing investing here, only gambling, of course yes, what’s there to doubt? It’s a hyped IPO of the biggest AI business, which is on everyone’s lips, partly thanks to bold statements about AI destroying all of humanity. I expect demand to be frenzied in the first days, volatility will tickle everyone’s nerves, and maybe my $50 will turn into $55, or even $60...
It would be a pity if the AI bubble bursts, but that won’t be our story anymore...
$POLY
Amazing how the market just hands us an easy 5%.
polymarket.com/event/which-p…
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$POLY
AggrNews: POLYMARKET USERS REPORT THAT FRONTEND MAY BE COMPROMISED, AND ASSETS ARE BEING WITHDRAWN WITHOUT PERMISSION: DISCORD
be careful guys
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Perps, trading volume, early activity… if you’re not on Polymarket yet, why are you waiting?
Get in early 👇
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