Taylor St Cap (@TaylorStCap) header
Taylor St Cap (@TaylorStCap) profile picture

Taylor St Cap

@TaylorStCap

Stocks and other musings

Joined October 2025
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Photo by Taylor St Cap (@TaylorStCap)Photo by Taylor St Cap (@TaylorStCap)Photo by Taylor St Cap (@TaylorStCap)
I know the $DIA is down hard over night … but I expect tomorrow to be a fantastic day day for interest rate sensitive names with the 10yr currently down at 4.91%, down 8bps from the close. Housing related, and my top 3 position $SGI, should soar tmw .. let’s win the day
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I’ve posted frequently on $FTAI for the last few months … today feels somewhat validating but there’s a ton of upside left. Still priced as if the power business is worthless. More to come here, and great stuff for $NNBR as well! Good alpha day for me
Taylor St Cap (@TaylorStCap) profile pictureTaylor St Cap@TaylorStCapOct 3
I don’t think that $FTAI will be a quick re-rate … will take proof of concept for power beyond their 1 contract, which will require some PRs over the coming 6 months. Not sure it’s a multi-bagger either, but I do think it’s a relatively straightforward +50%. 20% position for me
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This is the only $CBRS short report response worth reading IMO (and I’ve read them all). Unbiased and written by an expert. Takeaway is that Culper report didn’t necessarily reveal anything new, though did concisely package the biz model risks in a way that will spook some
Irrational Analysis (@insane_analyst) profile pictureIrrational Analysis
@insane_analystOct 28
Culper Research vs Cerebras: A Neutral Engineering-Driven View irrationalanalysis.substack.…
Image from Irrational Analysis (@insane_analyst)
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FYI - this is the guy that shorted $AAOI at $20 before it ran to $200 … hopefully similar impact on $CBRS
Culper (@CulperResearch) profile pictureCulper
@CulperResearchOct 28
NEW: We are short Cerebras Systems $CBRS. Cerebras claims to have solved wafer-scale chips. We believe otherwise: $CBRS wafers break down after just ~2 years in use - a lifespan that undermines the entire business. See full report and disclosures on our website, link in bio.
Image from Culper (@CulperResearch)
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This is so dumb lol. Culper must be a better wafer scale architect than the experts at Oracle, AWS, Google, etc. But here we go again … convenient timing on lock-up expiry day … typical stuff
Culper (@CulperResearch) profile pictureCulper
@CulperResearchOct 28
Replying to @CulperResearch
15/15) We estimate $CBRS private investors paid ~$23/share - far lower than todays prices... Insiders have sold $400M+ since the IPO. 19.4M shares unlocked today, and over 50M more will unlock in early November. We are short and think shares are headed lower.
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$FPS at $24 ✅
Taylor St Cap (@TaylorStCap) profile pictureTaylor St Cap@TaylorStCapOct 22
Wow — $FPS down nearly 40% since my exit and crushed today on CFO departure. I would absolutely buy back in here if not for wash sale rules. But this thing in the mid-20s is good value. Entire AI ecosystem has gotten hit extremely hard and opportunities are abound yet again
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Good timing on $CBRS with the $ORCL news today. The reality is that 1) more of these types of announcements are likely coming, 2) as the cybersecurity narrative ramps, it’s only logical that speed is the best deterrent, and 3) $CBRS was priced for death. Love the upside here
Taylor St Cap (@TaylorStCap) profile pictureTaylor St Cap@TaylorStCapOct 27
xitter.gq/daveblundin/status/211… xitter.gq/cryptopunk7213/status/… Just need to open your eyes … with that said … bear case would be reading through this Hacker News message board (news.ycombinator.com/item?id…) where developer sentiment on $CBRS isn’t exactly extremely positive
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$WHR now flat on a frankly pretty bonkers miss. The worst is in. Mega bear case is priced in and around perceived “housing turnaround” winners. Any ounce of an upside surprise will lead to re-rate for $SGI and others
Taylor St Cap (@TaylorStCap) profile pictureTaylor St Cap@TaylorStCapOct 27
$WHR should tell you that the worst has been priced in for housing related. Guiding to -$1.30 ‘26 EPS on prior guidance of $2.50-3.00. Insanely drastic guidance cut and stock is down whopping 5% PM. Worst was priced in; have to imagine this is trough on trough. Positive for $SGI
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$WHR should tell you that the worst has been priced in for housing related. Guiding to -$1.30 ‘26 EPS on prior guidance of $2.50-3.00. Insanely drastic guidance cut and stock is down whopping 5% PM. Worst was priced in; have to imagine this is trough on trough. Positive for $SGI
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xitter.gq/daveblundin/status/211… xitter.gq/cryptopunk7213/status/… Just need to open your eyes … with that said … bear case would be reading through this Hacker News message board (news.ycombinator.com/item?id…) where developer sentiment on $CBRS isn’t exactly extremely positive
Taylor St Cap (@TaylorStCap) profile pictureTaylor St Cap@TaylorStCapOct 27
Talk to anyone inside OpenAI and they will tell you that Sam and his top engineers use Ultraftast powered by $CBRS. People have gotten in trouble internally for abusing Ultrafast at 10x the cost. Jane St has attempted to monopolize the limited supply. Feldman screwed up on the
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Talk to anyone inside OpenAI and they will tell you that Sam and his top engineers use Ultraftast powered by $CBRS. People have gotten in trouble internally for abusing Ultrafast at 10x the cost. Jane St has attempted to monopolize the limited supply. Feldman screwed up on the
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data center side by failing to secure adequate compute and introducing this narrative around GPT-6.1 Sol using NVDA GPUs. The $CBRS product itself is fantastic and I think the share price now reflects this hiccup in the growth story. I don’t think it’s anything more than a hiccup
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I’ll be buying $CBRS tomorrow morning — 25% position ideally < $110/sh … will pair well with my large $SGI position that should have negative correlation with $CBRS over the shorter term. Of course we’re in an AI bubble — that seems obvious. But for something like $CBRS that’s
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70% off highs, that bubble has clearly popped, and the question becomes “how important is speed when it comes to mission critical cybersecurity?” I think the answer to this question is obvious, especially well below IPO price and recent takeover interest from $ARM and SoftBank.
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Wow — $FPS down nearly 40% since my exit and crushed today on CFO departure. I would absolutely buy back in here if not for wash sale rules. But this thing in the mid-20s is good value. Entire AI ecosystem has gotten hit extremely hard and opportunities are abound yet again
Taylor St Cap (@TaylorStCap) profile pictureTaylor St Cap@TaylorStCapOct 12
Out of $FPS today — entry $29.39 / exit $38.33 / return +30% Was feeling too much exposure to AI infra trade which felt irresponsible as rates keep rising. More portfolio moves likely coming today
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Anyone know why $GLAS has gotten crushed? Results were bad but not so bad to justify this price action? What’s going on?
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Long week but went about as well as it probably could have. Down 5.9% on the week, though came into the week with 100% AI Infra exposure ($FPS, $NNBR, $FTAI, $AESI) and had some well-timed trims. Had I not sold the book would have been down about 16%. As I mentioned live, most
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of my realized PnL went into $SGI at about $63. Who knows what happens with oil, but I do know that, even after this correction, AI infra still does tend to broadly be offside if rates keep rising, whereas as I think much of the industrial / real economy has been pricing this in
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for many months. I think Goldilocks case here for real economy stocks is lower than expected hyperscaler capex guides over the next few weeks. If these continue to come in higher, I think the bond market sends a more stern message.
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Hello $FTAI
James | Bull Run Research (@BRR_bull_run) profile pictureJames | Bull Run Research
@BRR_bull_runOct 16
Macquarie initiates $FTAI at Outperform with a $305 price target. We own FTAI.
Image from James | Bull Run Research (@BRR_bull_run)
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