FullTime Trading/Prediction Markets | Member of @zscdao
Social Media Influencer
Joined March 2020
- Tweets1.3K
- Following450
- Followers488
- Likes1.8K
TenFive retweeted
I've talked to the Polymarket team many times, both as a KOL and as a builder/trader in the ecosystem and honestly, it's funny to see all this FUD that haters are trying so hard to push
If you're an active user you probably remember @shayne_coplan or @MatthewModabber sliding into traders and KOLs DMs, asking for feedback, connecting with ppls and just genuinely wanting to chat
This was literally not that long ago and Shayne was already a billionaire at the time
I genuinely can't think of another billionaire who would PERSONALLY REACH OUT FIRST to regular users just to talk to them
That says a lot about him.
I've been watching the platform evolve and seeing all the updates they've shipped over the past year
Honestly, we're growing at an INSANE pace
You can love or hate @Polymarket but I genuinely believe they're leading the prediction market industry and driving mass adoption.
Yes, I agree that the team sometimes makes mistakes and some of them can look pretty cringe
But they fix them and more importantly IT'S NOT THAT BIG OF A DEAL
C'mon guys, we're talking about one of the fastest-growing startups out there, a company that has grown massively in just one year
Of course people are gonna make mistakes along the way. That's completely normal
Just give them more time. They're already doing an incredible amount of work
At the end of the day all this FUD is just another stress test
And I believe Polymarket will come out of it even stronger
This is total nonsense.
We're one of the largest early investors in Polymarket, and this story that Shayne was "caught red-handed" using company money is just a flat out garbage hit piece.
Shayne wasn't taking a salary. He was 21 when he started Polymarket, he was living hand-to-mouth running the company out of his apartment, barely making ends meet when he was raising his seed round. We were his first term sheet and literally offered to loan him money personally, but he ended up not needing it when the seed round came together.
After COVID and the crazy Biden-era crackdown on crypto that was happening at the time, there was a lot of chaos in almost every company in the industry. As an investor, we saw a lot of companies go through pandemic-era startup craziness, and Polymarket was no exception.
But Shayne disclosed every dollar he spent, which turned out to annualize to about a software engineer's salary. That's including the flights, none of which were personal flights. Plus, SHAYNE STARTED the accounting and payback process, no one “found” it. In aggregate, it was nothing that an investor would balk at. He paid it back to the company in full, and then got on a normal salary like everyone else.
It was an accounting problem, not an integrity problem. It was not a big deal.
Polymarket has had growing pains, no doubt. It went from a small fledging startups to one of the most explosive consumer brands in America. But Shayne has leveled up alongside the company, and as investors we have total confidence in him.
Enough of this stupid FUD.
The end.
TenFive retweeted
What a game we’re watching tonight
1-0 at halftime and just a 59% chance for the favorite
Polymarket clearly knows something 👀
TenFive retweeted
I may have a little something to say about this at Token 2049. See you in Singapore.
🔮
TenFive retweeted
all of kalshi’s volume is inflated. parlays are 61% of their reported volume and it’s all fake
yesterday they had $136M actually traded but they reported $1.91B
$1 placed on a 14.1x parlay gets counted as $14.10 in volume
48% of their parlay volume are slips with 11+ legs (moonshots that never hit)
i think they are doing this to fool investors
TenFive retweeted
Polymarket was the most downloaded app for sports in week 1.
Looking forward to week 2.
NFL Week 1
Sports Betting
& Prediction Market
App Downloads
Total: 3.0M
Top Sites
762K @Polymarket
592K @Kalshi
415K @DKSports
265K @FanDuelSports
139K @SleeperHQ
104K @bet365_US
97K @HardRockBet
⏯️ via Citizens
TenFive retweeted
Thrilled to announce Collin McKinney Hill has joined Polymarket as our new VP of Operations.
He's coming from DoorDash where he was a GM and ran one of their largest business units. DoorDash is known as one of the most operationally excellent businesses, and that's the rigor Collin's bringing to Polymarket. Before that, he was at Bridgewater where he was Ray Dalio's Chief of Staff. He's also 6'7. And handsome. Some guys just have it all.
Onwards.
TenFive retweeted
Polymarket's US business hit all-time highs in every metric this weekend, and became the #3 app in America.
Polymarket US only launched publicly on May 12. Tech is now ready for scale. And scale we shall.
TenFive retweeted
Just a couple months out of beta, Polymarket is already at 43.8% of Kalshi’s football volume despite being live since just this summer.
That’s including all the brokerage flow routed to Kalshi through Robinhood, Coinbase, PrizePicks, etc.
TenFive retweeted
Still looking for people to join my squad…
Trade and chat with your friends live on @Polymarket Squads.
🤝 Paid partnership
TenFive retweeted
Earn 1.5% on the IPO in two weeks or 33% APR
Many people already know that Shein is going public they were supposed to go public next week, but according to Reuters, the IPO will take place on September 1, give or take a couple of days
Why you should place a trade in anticipation of their IPO:
> The approximate launch date is already known
> The Polymarket community strongly believes this will happen, the probability is over 98%
> Investors are fully prepared for the event
What do you think about this trade? Maybe someone has some insider information?)
Anthropic’s chances of becoming the largest IPO in 2026 are increasing
Investors are forecasting a valuation of over $2 trillion for Anthropic, and the odds on Polymarket are also rising sharply
What risks might the company face:
> Chinese language models are getting stronger
> Conflict with the Trump administration and a court process by the US Department of Defense
> A growing market bubble in the AI sector
I believe it might be worth considering a “yes Anthropic” position once the probability adjusts slightly, as the hype leading up to the IPO will certainly be intense, and it will be possible to trade on that
What do you think, are investors right to place such a high valuation on the company?
TenFive retweeted
Anthropic’s chances of becoming the largest IPO in 2026 are increasing
Investors are forecasting a valuation of over $2 trillion for Anthropic, and the odds on Polymarket are also rising sharply
What risks might the company face:
> Chinese language models are getting stronger
> Conflict with the Trump administration and a court process by the US Department of Defense
> A growing market bubble in the AI sector
I believe it might be worth considering a “yes Anthropic” position once the probability adjusts slightly, as the hype leading up to the IPO will certainly be intense, and it will be possible to trade on that
What do you think, are investors right to place such a high valuation on the company?
SpaceX Will Remain the Most Valuable IPO in 2026
On the Polymarket platform, this probability is estimated at 90%, and here’s why:
> Its closest competitors OpenAI and Anthropic have not yet entered the market
> The competitors’ valuations are less than 1 trillion
> Global memory issues haven’t gone away
The market believes this what do you think?
TenFive retweeted
The probability of an FRS rate hike is falling rapidly
Following yesterday’s release of CPI data, which came in within the forecast range, the probability of a rate hike fell by 11%
As I wrote earlier, these were unusually high figures following the release of the NFP data
The FOMC (FRS meeting) will be held on August 16, and the minutes will be released as early as next week
What are your expectations for the meeting? Why do you think the probability of a rate hike has dropped so much on Polymarket?
The market is reinforcing expectations of an FRS rate hike
The “25bp increase” has risen 7% in a couple of days, even though the NFP data wasn't positive
CPI data is due out tomorrow, forecasts suggest it will meet expectations, but volatility will be high
It will be interesting to see whether traders on Polymarket continue to believe in a rate hike or lower their expectations?
TenFive retweeted
Traders Believe a Banking Crisis Is Coming in the US
There is currently an event on Polymarket regarding bank failures, and here’s why the current probability is underestimated:
> Jobs are being cut in the banking sector
> Many banks are having problems with reserves
> There is significant market uncertainty
In my opinion, the event is still underrated, what do you think? Will the banks weather the current crisis?
TenFive retweeted
We cannot love jobs and hate those who create jobs. Protecting jobs and fighting this virus should be our greatest priority. Governments have to send a message that investors and their investments will not be put at risk by greedy lawyers and bureaucrats
socialnews.xyz/2020/04/01/af…
TenFive retweeted
According to the University of Hamburg, the number of deaths globally in the first two months of 2020*
2,360 : #CoronaVirus
69,602 : Cold
140,584 : Malaria
153,696 : Suicide
193,479 : Road accidents
240,950 : HIV loss
358,471 : Alcohol
TenFive retweeted
Most #African producers have learned from the past experience and have adjusted themselves to respond to price crashes. Progressive economic diversification will contribute to minimize the impact of this situation. #OOTT #OPEC
@MKKyari @HETimipreSylva
oraclenews.ng/covid-19-niger…