Teos

Ultimate BTC Simple Bias Guide. It's very easy to forget that it was simply 1 red candle yesterday that caused a huge reaction in the emotion of the discussion on Twitter. However the thoughts around BTC are simple, and don't require emotion. Right now it's just the standard loud positioning and declaration of position that dominates the timeline. BTC is in a strong uptrend, it remains so, but there are some warning signs on the Daily. So let me lay out the facts for you and some of the playouts and way price will guide the decisions and view on the market. We have resistance of the range at $72k. We have an uptrend. We had another rejection (5th) from $72k on Friday. BTC needs to hold the uptrend, if we lose $67k, we're once again going to be in a downtrend with this being confirmed as a LH and therefore negative market conditions continuing. The attention would then turn to the Weekly timeframe and that is when the concern would rise. With establishing the LH here we'd need to absolutely hold $61k. If that was lost, I would consider that the end of the cycle - weekly trend changes aren't good. But as it stands, we're still very early in terms of our time here around the former high (you still can't be confident this would be a lower high - although the daily may strengthen your beliefs if it does begin downtrending.) So to simplify: We're still uptrending on the Daily and Weekly. The Daily needs to make a fresh high and break $72k otherwise it's at risk of losing the Daily trend below $67k. We've had 5 touches of $72k resistance now. If we lose $67k attention turns to the Weekly and holding the Weekly low at $61k. If the Weekly breaks the low and confirms a downtrending structure, I think it's time to reassess portfolios. As a positive, there are no HTF bear divs, which have typically been a strong signal for cycle tops. We're clean on RSI. Until then, pressure remains on $72k. There is a clear path for bias. Right now it still makes sense to be bullish and simply have your markers for when the market is turning against you, and your portfolio, to make decisions when/if the time comes.

This is Phase 2. Prepare yourselves for the outrageous. Hold your bags tight. Don't get chopped up. We're about to enter the normie re-introduction zone. RIDE.

(This thread is long enough, but I will expand on a number of points here in the coming days) You have to shake the sidelined mentality. You cannot be frozen out by these markets. If you are, you're trying to position far larger than your account can handle. Because there's too much opportunity for there to be any other reason. 1. The Leverage and "trying to make it" debate In your attempts to try and make life-changing money you're destroying your ability to make any money. Most of you are not skilled enough to be able to operate with leverage and trading the markets on the LTF trying to secure additional value or knife-catching entries. Many traders in this space would rewind the clock to remove leverage trading from their toolkit and instead stick to spot trading. You can of course do whatever you like, and this won't be for all of you, however, the psychological side that comes with leverage is a hard beast to control. Many of you will waste a cycle trying to move in on leverage to generate outsized returns against your portfolio size. Many of you will have already been chopped up after this significant market correction when you would have been safer and more relaxed, and potentially already more profitable by simply buying some spot. When the market is bullish, you don't need a lot of leverage, you need discipline, patience and the ability to craft positions over time. Stop believing that you do. Sure, I appreciate it's harder for market selection and opportunity with smaller portfolios, but unless you start stacking wins, you're just playing lotto with the markets. 2. The Current Climate Many markets are currently in the process of reclaiming the significant HTF breakdown levels. These reclaims are very often independent signals in themselves for positioning. Don't let your worries about "oh man price is already up a lot" get in the way of sensible positioning to the strongest markets. We're at a point where all targets are now fresh highs for the year. So there's plenty of juice left (if the markets continue their ascent, God willing.) I mention it all the time, but it's the biggest breakthrough you'll have as a trader, the ability to understand positioning and how important the process of establishing positions over time is. This isn't about risk totals either, you should absolutely push hard during these environments (I'll cover that in a separate thread) this is about the process to actually establish that risk. Don't spend time sidelined, don't spend time thinking you're running out of time, don't spend time chucking money away using high leverage in an attempt to "make it" before the cycle ends. Many of the things you believe are simply your fears being vocalised and confirmed by your mind. The market is still bullish. You have time. You need to change your actions to not be sidelined. You need to appreciate risk and using it to your benefit to maintain and build. During the correction I spoke about the work that you do during this period sets you up for a relaxed summer. Bring on summer.