Made in Massachusetts | “When it is dark enough, you can see the stars.”
Boston and Kennebunkport
Joined November 2014
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The Boston View retweeted
Most surprising line in the S-1:
“Anthropic's revenue from Fortune 500 customers paying $100K+ a year averaged under 0.1% of those customers' total expenses in the September 2026 quarter. Over half the Fortune 500 is in that group.”
Absolutely wild given ~$75b in revenue.
The Boston View retweeted
After a 15% rally in April/May, the S&P 500 has simply consolidated those gains for nearly five months.
The 20-week MA has caught up and now is a nice time for the primary trend (a bull market) to continue.
The Boston View retweeted
Microsoft offering 60k employees buyouts...
AI's impact on the labor market is going to be a big topic next year.
Crazy that the Fed's September SEP forecasts steady (4.1%) unemployment through 2028.
The Boston View retweeted
I am shocked, absolutely shocked, that Anthropic ARR has likely gone vertical in October after they cut token prices.
Except the exact same thing happened for the entire AI market, which is why GPU rental prices have surged while token prices declined.
$100b plus in year-end ARR looks possible again.
The Boston View retweeted
Anthropic "is burning cash like crazy" was one big lie, spread by the Ed Zitrons of the world.
For the first 6 months of 2026, Anthropic generated positive free cash flow of $3.4 billion ($3.9 billion of cash flow from operations less $482 million of capex).
And stock-based compensation was only $2.2 billion.. So even FCF less SBC was positive.
The Boston View retweeted
$NVDA Probably the most important chart in the stock market right now...
The MOAT line cannot be anymore precise and clear.
Bulls, bounce it or else.
The Boston View retweeted
Reporting and recent comments suggest that new US strikes will not aim to simply degrade Iran's capabilities or reduce their position in the strait (i.e. what the US attempted with strikes in July/August).
Rather, there is a body of opinion inside the admin that another round of strikes would "finish off" Iran, pushing it to the point where it will capitulate to US demands, agree to a deal that favored the US, allowing the war to end with US victory.
One can dispute the validity of this position. But it seems to be what is informing US thinking.
The Boston View retweeted
Billions of dollars’ worth of contracts predicting oil would fall and the S&P 500 would rise were placed about 15 minutes before Trump announced a U-turn on Iran in a post on Truth Social. CFTC staff began to investigate-- then were told to lay off. bloomberg.com/news/features/…
The Boston View retweeted
Just In: There will be a 3.6% cost of living adjustment for Social Security payments in 2027.
That's the highest since 2023.
It will help offset some of the financial pain right now on retirees. The increase is notably higher than the average 3% wage gain many workers are getting.
The Boston View retweeted
Volatility on misunderstood newsflow seems endemic to AI:
Deepseek.
Liberation Day.
Kimi.
SALP.
Gross to net confusion for Anthropic.
OpenAI taking share from Anthropic.
Gross to net confusion for OpenAI.
A mistranslation of Hock Tan’s comments yesterday.
The Boston View retweeted
lol, 500 kt in November is only 125 kbpd of diesel.
Russia usually exports nearly ten times that volume when its refinery fleet isn't getting bombed by Ukrainian drones
TRUMP ANNOUNCES DEAL WITH PUTIN FOR RUSSIAN DIESEL SUPPLIES
President Trump says he held a “highly successful” discussion with Vladimir Putin, securing an agreement for Russia to supply diesel to U.S. and global markets.
According to Trump, Russia will deliver over 300,000 tons immediately, followed by 500,000 tons in November and another 1 million tons thereafter.
The announcement comes amid tight global diesel supplies and elevated fuel prices.
The Boston View retweeted
Please resist the urge to mock the mathematicians struggling through this moment. Whatever your field, your expertise, your passion, you too shall one day experience what they are going through. And when you remember your words, you will feel remorse.
The Boston View retweeted
In a few weeks Fintwit will be calling $AMZN a leader and buying the $300 breakout.
The Boston View retweeted
Samsung doesn't get talked about enough... they report preliminary results tonight, here are the expected numbers...
revenues up +152% YoY
ebitda up +472% YoY
net income up +692% YoY
eps up +703% YoY
Stock currently trades at 4.4x NTM EPS and 3.6x 2027 EPS... the current/forward multiple on this stock is just ridiculous.
It sounds like HBM prices are going up at least 100% in CY2027 which might not be in the sell side estimates yet which means the stock might be cheaper than the current estimates suggest.
Samsung current has a market cap of $1.25 trillion (USD)... they will probably generate at least $450B of operating income in 2027... so the stock is trading at less than 2.8x 2027 operating profits.
I like $AMD (and we own it) but they're only expected to generate $30B of operating profits in CY2027 which means that stock is trading at 35x CY2027 operating profits... 12.5x more expensive than Samsung.
SK Hynix, Micron and Samsung are probably trading at an average of 3.5x CY2027 EPS with EPS growing at least 50% in CY2027 (probably higher) and at least a 30% CAGR over the next few years and it could be 40-50% when you consider how tight memory supply will be through CY2028 which means the price hikes aren't over and these companies are going to buyback at least 10% of their float every year through 2030.
LONG MEMORY!!!!