Data over narratives. Macro cycles, liquidity and regime shifts. No emotion. Just research.
Global Markets
Joined December 2018
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Inflation already turned: US CPI is back to 4.5%, up from 2.7% in December.
If the war grinds on, I think the second wave builds toward 6 to 7% and the Fed is forced back toward hiking. Base case is sticky near 4%.
More detailed scenario breakdown available for subscribers.
Watch out for that midterm rally.
“Deals,” “talks with Iran,” and everything in between will be on the table leading up to November 3.
$Silver Update
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To me think looks like a corrective bounce and I believe we will take out the lows and test 54.7$ area before a strong rally.
Disclaimer:
This is market commentary only, not financial advice. It reflects my personal view of the current chart setup and may be wrong. Trade at your own risk and always use proper risk management
Haha, now that's one way to hedge real-life risk. 😂
🤝 Paid partnership
Mountain Bike San Francisco offers bike tours and rentals in Northern California.
Mark Baeder, the founder, has been leading private rides, full-day adventures, and corporate events for over 14 years in the Bay Area.
With El Niño underway, Northern California could see high monthly rainfall throughout the wet season, especially in November and December.
To protect himself against lower bookings for his business, Mark decided to hedge this risk on Kalshi by taking a $1K position on heavy rain in Napa from November 2026 through March 2027.
If El Niño doesn't produce heavy rains, his mountain bike business will continue to thrive and serve the community.
If El Niño does produce heavy rains, his mountain bike business can expect lower bookings, but his Kalshi position can help cover the difference.
Either way, Mark has protected his business against a rainy season.
The Macro Pulse retweeted
"Doug Lorch appears unassuming - a retired IBM programmer with a gray beard, glasses, and a duck Facebook avatar, living quietly in Santa Barbara and driving a red Miata.
Doug has no special expertise in international affairs, but he has a healthy curiosity about what's happening. He reads the New York Times. He can find Kazakhstan on a map. So he volunteered for the Good Judgment Project. Once a day, for an hour or so, his dining room table became his forecasting center, where he opened his laptop, read the news, and tried to anticipate the fate of the world."
- Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
What type of people are successful on Kalshi?
We commissioned an independent third party to study our top traders. Here’s what they found:
Top traders are not limited to privileged or financial backgrounds.
-79% went to public school
-They are over 2x as likely to have worked retail or service jobs than on Wall Street
-65% are self-taught
The majority of top traders: :
-Actively seek out primary documents for research
-Actively seek out conflicting sources to challenge their beliefs
-Outperform the public on numeracy tests
The findings echo the foundational work of Philip Tetlock: the best forecasters are not subject matter experts. They tend to be otherwise-ordinary people who are intellectually humble, willing to do research, and think probabilistically instead of emotionally.
Interesting
The biggest edge in prediction markets might not be access to information or elite education.
It might be the ability to admit you're wrong faster than everyone else.
What type of people are successful on Kalshi?
We commissioned an independent third party to study our top traders. Here’s what they found:
Top traders are not limited to privileged or financial backgrounds.
-79% went to public school
-They are over 2x as likely to have worked retail or service jobs than on Wall Street
-65% are self-taught
The majority of top traders: :
-Actively seek out primary documents for research
-Actively seek out conflicting sources to challenge their beliefs
-Outperform the public on numeracy tests
The findings echo the foundational work of Philip Tetlock: the best forecasters are not subject matter experts. They tend to be otherwise-ordinary people who are intellectually humble, willing to do research, and think probabilistically instead of emotionally.
10Y at 5.35%. Highest since 2002, when the Nasdaq was down 60%.
Today the Nasdaq is at a record.
This is the melt-up phase. The bust that follows will be the worst in our lifetimes. Nasdaq -70%. Yields collapse.
Enjoy the top.