ThePropCPA

CFB 🏈 Saturday Spreads! UAB -8.5 (FanDuel -105) Charlotte’s defense is one of the worst in the country: 131st in PPA allowed, 135th in success rate and 40.3 points allowed a game (137th). Charlotte’s offense is just as bad, 126th in PPA and 129th in turnovers. UAB isn’t explosive, but it has the 1st ranked pass defense in the country at 116 yards allowed, and Charlotte can’t run well enough to avoid passing. Four of Charlotte's seven losses have been by 20+ points. UAB is 4-0 at home winning their last two by 13 and 19 points. I think they win by 10+ this afternoon. ❤️ Like, share, and follow if tailing!

CFB 🏈 Week 10 Pick 3: Amare Thomas (HOU-WR) o64.5 Receiving Yards I like for Houston’s Amare Thomas to clear 64.5 receiving yards Saturday against Cincinnati. He has a 26.6% target share this season and is averaging 8 targets and 77.5 receiving yards per game. He's cleared this line in 4 of 8 games, but this is a great matchup for him and he's gone for 125+ in two straight games. The Cougars passing game is one of the most efficient in the country ranking 4th in pass PPA and 3rd in pass success rate. Cincinnati’s pass defense is among the worst in the country ranking 128th in yards allowed (282.1 a game), 122nd in PPA and 118th in success rate. That means Houston should easily move the ball through the air. Houston is a 10.5-point favorite projected to score 36 and we have a high 62.5 total that supports enough Houston possessions for Thomas to get his catches. I think he dominates the Cincinnati secondary on Saturday and clears the over on 64.5 receiving yards. ❤️ Like, share, and follow if tailing!

CFB 🏈 Week 10 Pick 2: LaNorris Sellers (SCAR-QB) o43.5 Rushing Yards For pick 2 I'm taking LaNorris Sellers over 43.5 Rushing Yards. This has bumped to about 50 yards since posting in VIP, but I still like it. The Gamecocks have turned things around and are now ranked in the top 25. They've done that by leaning heavily on Sellers to make plays. He's averaging 12.3 carries and 75.4 rushing yards per game this season, clearing this line in 6 of 8 games. South Carolina’s running game ranks 13th in yards (217.5 a game) and 10th in rush PPA, and Sellers is central to it. Texas A&M’s run defense is good (30th in rush PPA, 21st in success rate), and that’s the main reason the line is so low. However, Sellers has crushed other tough SEC defenses already this season with 96 rush yards against Oklahoma, 96 against Tennesee, 147 against Kentucky, and 72 against Alabama. A&M has allowed QBs to have some success on the ground. Landen Clark and Sam Leavitt for LSU combined for 61 rushing yards, AZ St's Cutter Boley had 31, Missouri's Austin Simmons 24, and Bama's Keelon Russell had 20. A huge reason why I like this line is that Texas A&M also ranks 129th in sacks (0.9 a game), 82nd in pressure rate, and 79th in havoc rate, which matters because sacks subtract from a quarterback’s rushing yards in college stats. Fewer sacks mean more of his rushing yards count. South Carolina is a 7-point favorite and runs 71.4 plays a game (20th), so there should be plenty of designed runs and I think LaNorris Sellers crushed the over on 43.5 rushing yards. ❤️ Like, share, and follow if tailing!

CFB 🏈 Week 10 Pick 1: Drew Mestemaker (OKST-QB) o21.5 Fantasy Score Surprise, surprise....we're rolling with our wagon Drew Mestemaker once again! I'm going with the over on his 21.5 fantasy score on PrizePicks. Oklahoma State has the 3rd ranked passing offense in the country at 338.8 yards a game and Mestemaker ranks 1st with 3.1 passing TDs per game. He's been dominating with 300+ yards and 2+ passing TDs every game since week 2. Over his past 5 games, he has fantasy scores of 33.5, 32.2, 30, 28.3, and 28.5. Kansas State looks tough on paper at 151.9 passing yards allowed (7th), but they've faced poor passing offenses. The only QB they've faced that comes close to Mestemaker is Houston's Conner Weigman and he torched them for 242 pass yards and 4 passing TDs. Kansas State also ranks 133rd in pass explosiveness allowed, so when passes get completed, they often go for big gains. They also have just 0.1 interceptions a game (131st), so losing points for picks probably won’t cost him much. Oklahoma State runs 72.4 plays a game (11th), and the 143.2 combined pace ranks among Saturday’s fastest games. In a 62.5 total with the Cowboys favored by 5.5 and a team total near 35, they should keep scoring all game. I like Mestemaker over 21.5 fantasy points. ❤️ Like, share, and follow if tailing!

CFB 🏈 Saturday Spreads! UCLA -3.5 (FanDuel -115) UCLA has the best defense in the country by the numbers: 1st in PPA allowed, 2nd in success rate and 1st in takeaways (3.3 a game). Minnesota’s offense is one of the worst in the country, 115th in PPA and 119th in success rate, and can’t run the ball (126th). I like UCLA to stay unbeaten and win by a touchdown or more today. ❤️ Like, share, and follow if tailing!

CFB 🏈 Saturday Spreads! Utah -4.5 (Fanatics -105) The undefeated Utes have a top-15 offense in PPA, rank 7th in success rate and run for the 8th-most yards in the country. Their defense allows just 15.9 points a game. BYU is good, but its offense ranks 76th in passing and its pace (107th) limits its ability to come back. Utah’s efficiency on both sides of the ball should hold up at home they win the Holy War today by 5+. ❤️ Like, share, and follow if tailing!

National Championship 🏀 rematch tonight between Michigan and UConn! I'm taking the Huskies with our 30% Boost on DraftKings!