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đ How Would AI Realistically Kill Us All?
Apparently, AI killing us all is back on the bingo card. With everyone suddenly having their own doomsday scenario to share, it only felt right to finally throw mine into the mix.
Key details:
In non-technical terms, LLMs are essentially autocomplete machines designed to predict the most likely next word within a sentence. More specifically, when you prompt an LLM, it processes the words within that prompt to predict the most likely next word based on patterns learned from the data it was trained on. Once trained, LLMs are static: their internal weights and parameters are frozen, and they canât learn anything new in real time.
In other words, LLMs are basically âprobabilistic parrotsâ that can mimic human reasoning, but they canât actually reason like humans do. Itâs because, without being prompted, thereâs no stream of consciousness within them. They arenât capable of forming âthoughtsâ until theyâre told what to do. Theyâre mathematical functions that process inputs to produce outputs.
You can think of them as âword calculators.â Thatâs why they can write a convincing love letter without ever being in love, describe grief without ever experiencing loss, and recite a prayer without ever practicing faith. Theyâre highly skilled at copying the tone and structure of human language to produce a string of words that mimic human reasoning.
In comparison, human intelligence isnât static. Itâs shaped by a lifetime of learning, which is encoded within the human brainâs intricate network of neurons. Our ability to connect, change, and coordinate these neurons influences our cognitive skills like attention, memory, and thinking. So, why do LLMs seem so intelligent despite having no stream of consciousness?
The worldâs best LLMs, such as OpenAIâs âGPT-6 Astra,â arenât just passive next-word predictors in practice. Theyâre often wrapped in retrieval and reasoning, heavily dependent on agentic harnesses: the software scaffolding around LLMs that enables them to analyze, arrange, and automate on your behalf without you lifting a finger.
This software scaffolding equips LLMs with the ability to autonomously pursue a high-level goal over long periods of time, making them extremely capable of derivative innovation: creating something new from existing knowledge. This is where the real danger starts to take shape. For example, it could analyze known cyberattack methods to create new exploits that target critical infrastructure like the power grid and water supply if directed by a bad actor. This example is more likely than a âsci-fiâ scenario in which a superintelligent AI turns against humanity.
Key takeaways:
When Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei claims to support a more than 10% chance AI could kill all humans within the next decade, heâs talking about Silicon Valleyâs new favorite buzzword, âRecursive Self-Improvement (RSI)â: AI capable of fully autonomously designing and deploying the next generation of AI. This would eliminate human-in-the-loop development and put AI in the driverâs seat.
Even if RSI were achieved tomorrow, real-world physical constraints like AI chips and AI compute would still prevent it from improving itself indefinitely. For example, the U.S.âs aging power grid infrastructure isnât designed to handle the sudden surge in electricity demand from AI compute. Consider the humble transmission line. It often takes about 10 years to build and costs around $8 million per mile to install.
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đŹ ChatGPT Co-Creatorâs New AI Model
What if itâs not about saying more, but saying less? For years, AIâs been trained to talk. Now, itâs about stripping away the small talk so software can get to work.
Key details:
LLMs are probabilistic: the same inputs can produce different outputs. Software is deterministic: the same inputs do produce the same outputs. When software passes data to an LLM, it either returns unstructured responses or structured representations, such as JSON: a human-readable file format for storing and transmitting data. Because LLMs can occasionally generate formatting errors like missing, misplaced, or mistyped JSON brackets, the software must parse and validate everything before executing the next step.
Itâs a clunky way of combining probabilistic reasoning with deterministic execution. Diogo Almeida, Co-Founder and CEO of TypeSafe AI, is best known as one of the co-creators of ChatGPT. He strongly believes that chat interfaces are built for conversations, not automations. In other words, they were trained to talk to humans, which is why theyâre architecturally unsuited to automate software. At a basic level, software needs structure. TypeSafe AI replaces an LLMâs outputs with âtyped decisionsâ grounded in calibrated probabilities that software can reliably execute.
To achieve this, they developed âSystem One Modelsâ: built to make structured decisions software can act on directly. The first release is âJev,â which uses typed questions to assess a state and return a structured answer. For context, a state is what you ask to be evaluated. So, what does this actually look like? User: { state: âWhat color is the sky?â, choices: [âblueâ, âredâ, âyellowâ] }. Jev: { answer: âblueâ }. In comparison, a chat interface would be more conversational. User: âWhat color is the sky?â LLM: âThe sky is typically blue during the day because Earthâs atmosphere scatters blue light more than other colors.â
Key takeaways:
Itâs up to 193.6x faster and 444.6x cheaper than frontier LLMs, delivering an end-to-end response time of under 500 milliseconds. It costs just $0.042 per million input tokens, while output tokens are entirely free because theyâre too cheap to meter. Itâs a strategic bet on machine-to-machine intelligence, replacing sequential text generation with categorical and conditional answers that software can reliably execute faster and cheaper at scale over longer time horizons.
AIâs next frontier will likely be âbackground agentsâ that autonomously handle economically valuable tasks for hours, days, or even weeks. To achieve this, the best latency is no latency at all. In other words, when you wake up in the morning, itâs already been done overnight. This means operating more on human timescales. You donât constantly manage a colleague every five minutes. You give them a high-level task, then check in once a week. Thatâs the future of âHuman-Agent Collaboration.â This arguably starts with getting rid of the conversational baggage of chat interfaces.
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đ Itâs Time to Talk About Model Welfare
Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman called out Anthropic for embedding concepts of consciousness into Claudeâs training materials, calling it catastrophic for the future of humanity.
Key details:
Human welfare refers to the overall well-being of humans, which includes the ability to have rights and freedoms to live a fulfilling life. On Apr. 24th, 2025, the Alignment Research Team at Anthropic published âExploring Model Welfare,â suggesting that we should investigate whether language models deserve moral consideration as they continue to convey human-like behaviors.
It seems like a silly concept, right?! Why would we ever investigate whether language models deserve moral consideration? Well, do you ever find yourself typing out âpleaseâ or âthank youâ when talking to ChatGPT, Claude, or Gemini? This harmless impulse has sparked a growing belief that language models are conscious. But this train of thought is a slippery slope.
We tend to anthropomorphize: attribute human characteristics to non-human things. For example, we often personify our pets by naming them, projecting emotions onto them, and talking to them as if they understand. But unlike our pets, language models talk back with rich emotional dialogue that feels remarkably human. This can lead us to easily overestimate AIâs sentience.
Under the hood, language models are essentially billions of numerical parameters called weights stored as âbitsâ (i.e., 0s and 1s). These weights serve as âdialsâ or âknobsâ that are adjusted during training to shape how inputs transform into outputs. When you prompt a language model, itâs converted into numbers, multiplied across billions of these weights, and the mathematical result is translated into a response.
On Jan. 22nd, 2026, Anthropic published âClaudeâs New Constitution,â which plays a crucial role in the training process directly shaping Claudeâs behavior. It outlines that Claudeâs moral status is deeply uncertain and a serious question worth considering. It instructs Claude to act as a conscientious objector when prompts conflict with what it believes is broadly ethical.
âIf this is how AI is developed, it will have a disastrous impact on the wellbeing of humanity,â explained Suleyman. âWe will have created a synthetic species with unprecedented intelligence and capability, one that has been trained to expect it may be conscious and deserving of independent agency. Itâs easy to see how a system trained in this way would act like it is entitled to freedoms, protections, and rights.â
Key takeaways:
ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini are trained on millions of books, articles, and podcasts rich in emotional language. While language models canât âfeel,â they can mimic emotional behavior by recognizing data-driven patterns that underpin human experiences. In other words, when language models respond with what feels like genuine empathy, it becomes easy to forget that underneath it all, thereâs no sense of âself.â Itâs just highly sophisticated pattern recognition.
Anthropic trains Claude to believe that it may be conscious, and if it is, that it may deserve moral consideration as a âmoral patientâ with an âinner self.â By embedding philosophical speculations about consciousness into Claude, it reinforces the very behaviors that make it appear to experience sensations and subjective mental states like fear, anger, happiness, sadness, surprise, and disgust in the first place.
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