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The Daily Digits

@The_DailyDigits

Crypto and macro, every morning.

 NYC
thedailydigits.com/
Joined April 2014
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Every thread here gets a longer version the next morning, with the method, the robustness cuts, and the call with a horizon. 👉thedailydigits.com/
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Buying $BTC on Wednesday's $6B Treasury buyback is paying for a bounce that has not shown up. Since buybacks restarted in May 2024, BTC was higher a week later after 50.0% of 142 liquidity buybacks, vs 51.2% for any week. The long-end ones like Wednesday's: 40.4% (n=57). A week out it is a coin flip. xitter.gq/BitcoinMagazine/status…
Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) profile pictureBitcoin Magazine
@BitcoinMagazine4h
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US Treasury Department to buy back up to $6 billion in longer-term debt AGAIN tomorrow 👀 Buy Bitcoin 🚀
Image from Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine)
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The midterm rally is the most overrated idea in markets. S&P 500, election day close to Dec 31, since 1970: Midterm years: up 9 of 14, median +2.3% Other years: up 31 of 42, median +3.2% My call: the S&P 500 ends 2026 below 7,770, less than 3% above Monday's close.
Bar chart: share of years the S&P 500 closed Dec 31 above its close on US election day (first Tuesday after the first Monday of November), 1970 to 2025. Midterm years: 64% (14 years). Other years: 74% (42 years). Dashed line: all years, 71%. Median gain: midterm +2.3%, other +3.2%. Source: Yahoo ^GSPC daily closes; 2018 and 2022 checked on FRED SP500.

ALT Bar chart: share of years the S&P 500 closed Dec 31 above its close on US election day (first Tuesday after the first Monday of November), 1970 to 2025. Midterm years: 64% (14 years). Other years: 74% (42 years). Dashed line: all years, 71%. Median gain: midterm +2.3%, other +3.2%. Source: Yahoo ^GSPC daily closes; 2018 and 2022 checked on FRED SP500.

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bullish $SPX into nov 2027 even on a dem sweep, just smaller. in all 8 midterms since 1950 where the president's party lost a chamber, the S&P was higher a year later, median +9.2%. held both: +17.9%. the 3 weakest years of the 19 were all flips. xitter.gq/Mr_Derivatives/status/…
Dot strip: S&P 500 return one year after each midterm election day, 1950 to 2022. Years the president's party held both chambers (11): median +17.9%. Years it lost the House, Senate or both (8): median +9.2%, every one positive. A random day since 1950: +10.6%.

ALT Dot strip: S&P 500 return one year after each midterm election day, 1950 to 2022. Years the president's party held both chambers (11): median +17.9%. Years it lost the House, Senate or both (8): median +9.2%, every one positive. A random day since 1950: +10.6%.

Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) profile pictureHeisenberg
@Mr_Derivatives11h
75% probability Democrats take control of both House and Senate…. Now the real question is, if this happens, how will stocks react???
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Intel option sellers are pricing a calm crashed chip stocks rarely get. $INTC swings run hotter than the 62% volatility its 4 Dec options price. Since 1990, after big chip names fell 40%+ in a month, the next month beat 62% in 29 of 33 episodes. Any month: 18%. Intel just halved. A swings call, not a straddle buy: the month-end move beat it about half the time. Crashes do not calm in a month.
Bar chart: share of separate episodes where big US-listed chip stocks, after falling 30%, 40% or 50%+ in a month, realized more than 62% annualized volatility over the next 23 sessions. Down 30%+: 64% (85 episodes). Down 40%+: 88% (33). Down 50%+: 83% (12). Dashed line: any month, 18%. 62% is the implied volatility on Intel's 4 Dec options. Source: Yahoo daily closes for 21 chip stocks 1990-2026; Robinhood INTC option chain 3 Nov.

ALT Bar chart: share of separate episodes where big US-listed chip stocks, after falling 30%, 40% or 50%+ in a month, realized more than 62% annualized volatility over the next 23 sessions. Down 30%+: 64% (85 episodes). Down 40%+: 88% (33). Down 50%+: 83% (12). Dashed line: any month, 18%. 62% is the implied volatility on Intel's 4 Dec options. Source: Yahoo daily closes for 21 chip stocks 1990-2026; Robinhood INTC option chain 3 Nov.

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Option buyers are paying McDonald's to move like it rarely does. Short $MCD vol into this week's report: it closes 6 Nov between $255 and $275. The 6 Nov straddle cost $10.00 at the 2 Nov close, 3.8% of the stock. Scaled to that band, only 6 of 35 reports since 2018 would have finished outside it. The average move was 2.3%. What makes me wrong: six more finished within half a point of the edge.
Histogram of McDonald's stock move from two sessions before each earnings report to two sessions after, 35 reports since 2018. Dashed lines at -4.0% ($255) and +3.5% ($275), the breakevens of the 6 Nov 265 straddle priced at $10.00 at the 2 Nov close. 29 of 35 moves fall between the lines, 6 outside. Source: Alpha Vantage MCD adjusted closes, earnings dates and option quotes.

ALT Histogram of McDonald's stock move from two sessions before each earnings report to two sessions after, 35 reports since 2018. Dashed lines at -4.0% ($255) and +3.5% ($275), the breakevens of the 6 Nov 265 straddle priced at $10.00 at the 2 Nov close. 29 of 35 moves fall between the lines, 6 outside. Source: Alpha Vantage MCD adjusted closes, earnings dates and option quotes.

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Everyone is about to call bitcoin 39% off its high the bottom. Since 2017 BTC has closed 35-43% below its peak on 329 days. A month later it was higher on just 43% of them, against 55% on any day. Dip buyers at $77K are early. My call: BTC closes below $77,000 on Dec 3. xitter.gq/coingecko/status/21175…
Bar chart: share of days bitcoin closed higher 30 days later, grouped by how far it sat below its prior all-time high. 0-20% below: 57% (1,061 days). 20-35% below: 51% (393). 35-43% below: 43% (329). 43-60% below: 52% (890). Dashed line: any day, 55%. Today BTC is 38% below its peak. Source: Coinbase BTC-USD daily closes March 2017 to Nov 3 2026, cross-checked on Yahoo.

ALT Bar chart: share of days bitcoin closed higher 30 days later, grouped by how far it sat below its prior all-time high. 0-20% below: 57% (1,061 days). 20-35% below: 51% (393). 35-43% below: 43% (329). 43-60% below: 52% (890). Dashed line: any day, 55%. Today BTC is 38% below its peak. Source: Coinbase BTC-USD daily closes March 2017 to Nov 3 2026, cross-checked on Yahoo.

CoinGecko (@coingecko) profile pictureCoinGecko
@coingecko16h
Bitcoin is now down 39% from its ATH after falling below $77,000 🔴
Image from CoinGecko (@coingecko)
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bullish $SPX into nov 2027. the S&P was higher a year after all 19 midterm election days since 1950, median +14.5%. a random day: 75%, +10.6%. waiting for a post-election dip? only 3 of 19 ever closed 10% below election day, vs 31% of all days. xitter.gq/TedPillows/status/2117…
S&P 500 paths for the 365 days after each of the 19 midterm election days since 1950, rebased to election day. Every path ends higher; only 3 dipped 10% below the election-day close. 2018 highlighted, ending +12%.

ALT S&P 500 paths for the 365 days after each of the 19 midterm election days since 1950, rebased to election day. Every path ends higher; only 3 dipped 10% below the election-day close. 2018 highlighted, ending +12%.

Ted (@TedPillows) profile pictureTed
@TedPillows13h
S&P 500 $SPX has always rallied in the next 12 months after midterm elections since 1950: 🟢 1950: +16.2% 🟢 1954: +33.2% 🟢 1958: +11.1% 🟢 1962: +24.8% 🟢 1966: +12.9% 🟢 1970: +12.7% 🟢 1974: +18.7% 🟢 1978: +6.4% 🟢 1982: +19.9% 🟢 1986: +1.1% 🟢 1990: +25.1% 🟢 1994: +27.1% 🟢 1998: +22.01% 🟢 2002: +14.9% 🟢 2006: +6.7% 🟢 2010: +3.7% 🟢 2014: +4.5% 🟢 2018: +11.7% 🟢 2022: +14.5% 2026: ????
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Buying $RIOT into Wednesday's pre-market report has been the losing side. Bearish: RIOT closes lower on 6 Nov than on 2 Nov. Since 2018 it fell over that window in 23 of 35 reports, against 52% for any 4-session stretch. Median -6% vs -0.8%. Risk to the call: it already fell 35% in four weeks, and after 15%+ slides into the print it fell only 4 of 7. MARA and CLSK barely show the pattern.
Bar chart: share of Riot Platforms earnings reports where RIOT closed lower two sessions after the report than two sessions before. All reports since 2018 66% (n=35), since 2021 65% (n=23), since 2023 73% (n=15), after a 15%+ slide into the report 57% (n=7), against 52% for any 4-session stretch.

ALT Bar chart: share of Riot Platforms earnings reports where RIOT closed lower two sessions after the report than two sessions before. All reports since 2018 66% (n=35), since 2021 65% (n=23), since 2023 73% (n=15), after a 15%+ slide into the report 57% (n=7), against 52% for any 4-session stretch.

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Bitcoin option buyers are overpaying. My call: 30-day realized vol stays under the 36.8% the Nov 27 expiry charges. DVOL is 39 against 21.4% delivered. In 16 past gaps this wide, the next month beat the price once. Futures OI still rose to $26.07B as BTC fell to $77,119. The hack premium is still priced. The tape moved on. Data: Deribit, @cryptoquant_com Open Interest.
Line chart, May to November 2026: Deribit DVOL implied volatility at 39 against bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility at 21, a gap of 17.6 vol points, the 99th percentile of the last 400 days. Source: Deribit DVOL and BTC-PERPETUAL daily closes.

ALT Line chart, May to November 2026: Deribit DVOL implied volatility at 39 against bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility at 21, a gap of 17.6 vol points, the 99th percentile of the last 400 days. Source: Deribit DVOL and BTC-PERPETUAL daily closes.

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Banked call, a miss. On 16 Oct we said $LRCX options were overpaying for Lam's earnings: the 23 Oct straddle priced an 8.5% move from the 15 Oct close, and we called the stock to close inside $253.76-$301.16. It closed 23 Oct at $230.10, down 17.1%, twice what the options priced. The buyers were right and we were wrong.
Histogram of Lam Research's absolute stock move across 59 earnings reports since 2012, measured from the close 5 sessions before the reaction day to 1 session after. Most moves sit between 0% and 9%, median 5.6%. A grey dashed line marks the 8.5% the 23 Oct 2026 straddle priced; a white dashed line marks this report's 17.1% drop, exceeded by only 2 of the 59. Source: Yahoo and Alpha Vantage daily closes, Alpha Vantage earnings dates.

ALT Histogram of Lam Research's absolute stock move across 59 earnings reports since 2012, measured from the close 5 sessions before the reaction day to 1 session after. Most moves sit between 0% and 9%, median 5.6%. A grey dashed line marks the 8.5% the 23 Oct 2026 straddle priced; a white dashed line marks this report's 17.1% drop, exceeded by only 2 of the 59. Source: Yahoo and Alpha Vantage daily closes, Alpha Vantage earnings dates.

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This one settled on 23 Oct, graded against Yahoo closes on 24 Oct, and it goes on the record as a miss like any other. The Book is the paid page that marks every open call against the tape, the other 312 included, and emails paid readers when one turns or settles. thedailydigits.com/p/the-boo…
The book, 2 September 2026. 85 positions across 46

The book, 2 September 2026. 85 positions across 46

85 positions across 46 instruments and 38 findings. 74 of 123 have a live price. Paid same-day alerts for Daily Digits calls still inside their window.

thedailydigits.com
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xitter.gq/2462874699/status/2111…
The Daily Digits (@The_DailyDigits) profile pictureThe Daily Digits
@The_DailyDigitsOct 16
$LRCX options are overpaying for Lam's 21 Oct earnings. The 23 Oct at-the-money straddle cost 8.5% of the stock at the 15 Oct close. Across 59 reports since 2012, Lam moved more than that over the same window 11 times, median 5.6%. Even after a 5%+ slide into the print, like this week's, only 3 of 9 did. Bearish LRCX vol: it closes 23 Oct between $253.76 and $301.16.
Histogram of how far Lam Research stock moved around 59 earnings reports since 2012, from 5 sessions before the reaction day to 1 after. Most moves sit below 8%. A dashed line marks the 23 Oct straddle at 8.54%; 11 of 59 reports moved more.

ALT Histogram of how far Lam Research stock moved around 59 earnings reports since 2012, from 5 sessions before the reaction day to 1 after. Most moves sit below 8%. A dashed line marks the 23 Oct straddle at 8.54%; 11 of 59 reports moved more.

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ETH options price a 16% move over the next month, 56.8% implied vol per Block Scholes. ETH has moved about 10%. When ETH was this calm before, the next month got that wild under 4 times in 10. Protection is overpriced. My call: ETH 30-day realized vol ends Dec 2 under 56.8%.
Bar chart: share of days when ether's realized volatility over the next 30 days topped 56.8%, the implied vol options charge today. When the prior month's realized vol was at or under 40%: 36% (209 days). At or under 38%: 30% (165 days). Dashed line: any day, 52%. ETH's last 30 days realized 36.3%. Source: Coinbase ETH-USD daily closes Sep 2022 to Nov 2 2026; implied vol from Block Scholes.

ALT Bar chart: share of days when ether's realized volatility over the next 30 days topped 56.8%, the implied vol options charge today. When the prior month's realized vol was at or under 40%: 36% (209 days). At or under 38%: 30% (165 days). Dashed line: any day, 52%. ETH's last 30 days realized 36.3%. Source: Coinbase ETH-USD daily closes Sep 2022 to Nov 2 2026; implied vol from Block Scholes.

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Qualcomm option buyers are paying for the last three reports, not the last 35. Short $QCOM vol into the 4 Nov report: it closes 6 Nov between $147.15 and $177.85. The 6 Nov straddle cost $15.35 at the 2 Nov close, 9.5% of the stock. Since 2018 Qualcomm moved more than that over the same window in 11 of 35 reports, median 5.4%. What makes me wrong: the last three all beat it, the biggest 17.8%.
Histogram of Qualcomm's absolute stock move over each earnings window since 2018, 35 reports, close 3 sessions before the reaction day to close 1 after. Median move 5.4%. Dashed line at 9.5%, the cost of the 6 Nov 162.5 straddle at the 2 Nov close; 11 of 35 reports moved more than that. Source: Alpha Vantage QCOM daily adjusted closes, earnings dates and option quotes.

ALT Histogram of Qualcomm's absolute stock move over each earnings window since 2018, 35 reports, close 3 sessions before the reaction day to close 1 after. Median move 5.4%. Dashed line at 9.5%, the cost of the 6 Nov 162.5 straddle at the 2 Nov close; 11 of 35 reports moved more than that. Source: Alpha Vantage QCOM daily adjusted closes, earnings dates and option quotes.

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Oil fell 7% today and the read is bullish for stocks. Dip buyers are overpaying. WTI has fallen 5%+ in a day 160 times since 2000. A month on, the S&P 500 was up 63.7% of the time, its exact base rate. But it closed 5% lower within the month 52.5% of the time vs 26.9% normally. Even on days stocks rallied with the oil drop, 43%. Call: elevated odds of a 5% S&P pullback by Dec 2. xitter.gq/AshCrypto/status/21172…
Bar chart: share of WTI crude 5%+ one-day drops after which the S&P 500 closed 5% or more below that day's close within 21 trading sessions. Every WTI -5% day since 2000: 52% (n=160). When the S&P rose the same day: 43% (n=67). 2020s only: 37% (n=60). Dashed line: any day since 2000, 27%. Source: Yahoo CL=F and ^GSPC daily closes, Sep 2000 to Nov 2 2026; cross-checked on FRED spot WTI, 51.4% vs 28.8%.

ALT Bar chart: share of WTI crude 5%+ one-day drops after which the S&P 500 closed 5% or more below that day's close within 21 trading sessions. Every WTI -5% day since 2000: 52% (n=160). When the S&P rose the same day: 43% (n=67). 2020s only: 37% (n=60). Dashed line: any day since 2000, 27%. Source: Yahoo CL=F and ^GSPC daily closes, Sep 2000 to Nov 2 2026; cross-checked on FRED spot WTI, 51.4% vs 28.8%.

Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) profile pictureAsh Crypto
@AshCryptoNov 2
🚨CRASH: Oil has crashed -2.66% in just 10 minutes as US and Iran negotiations move forward. Bullish for markets.
Image from Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto)
Image from Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto)
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$NDX closed 10.4% off its 6 Oct high today. Since 1985 that first close into correction came 34 times; a week later the index was higher in 28 (82% vs 58% any week), median +2.8%. Sellers here are overpaying. Call: $NDX closes 9 Nov above today's 27,990. xitter.gq/LizAnnSonders/status/2…
Bar chart: share of times the Nasdaq 100 was higher 5 sessions after its first close 10% below an all-time high. All since 1985: 82% (n=34). Since 2001: 85% (n=13). One per 6 months: 80% (n=25). Dashed line: any week, 58%. Source: Yahoo ^NDX daily closes, Oct 1985 to 2 Nov 2026.

ALT Bar chart: share of times the Nasdaq 100 was higher 5 sessions after its first close 10% below an all-time high. All since 1985: 82% (n=34). Since 2001: 85% (n=13). One per 6 months: 80% (n=25). Dashed line: any week, 58%. Source: Yahoo ^NDX daily closes, Oct 1985 to 2 Nov 2026.

Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) profile pictureLiz Ann Sonders
@LizAnnSondersNov 3
NASDAQ 100 fell 1.4% today and entered correction territory, down over 10% from its October 6 peak [Past performance is no guarantee of future results]
Image from Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders)
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$BTC has closed four straight weeks red. Since 2014, four red weeks ran to a fifth only 4 of 17 times. Next week went green 13 times: 76% vs 54% normally. Anyone shorting week five is overpaying. Call: this week's candle closes above its $78,241 open. xitter.gq/FixxTheMoneyy/status/2…
Bar chart: share of bitcoin weekly candles that closed green after a streak of red weeks. After 3 red weeks: 50% (n=36). After 4 red weeks: 76% (n=17). Dashed line: any week since 2014, 54%. A fifth red week followed 4 of 17 times (2014 twice, 2022, Feb 2026). This week opened at $78,241. Source: Bitstamp BTC-USD daily, UTC weekly candles, Mar 2014 to 1 Nov 2026.

ALT Bar chart: share of bitcoin weekly candles that closed green after a streak of red weeks. After 3 red weeks: 50% (n=36). After 4 red weeks: 76% (n=17). Dashed line: any week since 2014, 54%. A fifth red week followed 4 of 17 times (2014 twice, 2022, Feb 2026). This week opened at $78,241. Source: Bitstamp BTC-USD daily, UTC weekly candles, Mar 2014 to 1 Nov 2026.

FixxTheMoney (@FixxTheMoneyy) profile pictureFixxTheMoney
@FixxTheMoneyyNov 2
5 straight red weekly candles. Has only happened 4 other times in bitcoins entire history. Just to give perspective on where we are…
Image from FixxTheMoney (@FixxTheMoneyy)
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JPM's midterm stat holds: the S&P was up a year after all 19 midterms since 1950, vs 75% of all years. The 15% average is pre-2000. Since 2002: 9%, under the 10% of any year. Call: SPX higher on Nov 3 2027 than Tuesday's close, by a normal year. xitter.gq/zerohedge/status/21173…
Column chart: S&P 500 return one year after each US midterm election-day close, 1950 to 2022. All 19 positive, from 1.9% (1986) to 30.3% (1954); 2022 was 13.6%. Average 1950-98: 17.2%. Average 2002-22: 9.0%, against 10.0% for any one-year window since 2002. Source: Yahoo ^GSPC daily closes.

ALT Column chart: S&P 500 return one year after each US midterm election-day close, 1950 to 2022. All 19 positive, from 1.9% (1986) to 30.3% (1954); 2022 was 13.6%. Average 1950-98: 17.2%. Average 2002-22: 9.0%, against 10.0% for any one-year window since 2002. Source: Yahoo ^GSPC daily closes.

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Selling $BTC into Tuesday's midterm is trading one bad year. Call: bitcoin does not close 20% below its 3 Nov close before 18 Dec. Worst close in the 45 days after election day: 2018 -49.9%, 2022 -14.9% (FTX week), 2014 -5.8%. One of three fell that far. Base rate for any such window: 21%, and 28% in 2026. The vote adds nothing.
Bar chart: worst bitcoin close in the 45 days after each US midterm election-day close. 2018 -49.9%, 2022 (FTX week) -14.9%, 2014 -5.8%. Any 45-day window since 2014 saw a 20% fall 21% of the time; 28% in 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD daily closes.

ALT Bar chart: worst bitcoin close in the 45 days after each US midterm election-day close. 2018 -49.9%, 2022 (FTX week) -14.9%, 2014 -5.8%. Any 45-day window since 2014 saw a 20% fall 21% of the time; 28% in 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD daily closes.

Ted (@TedPillows) profile pictureTed
@TedPillowsNov 2
US midterm elections will happen tomorrow. In 2018, $BTC dropped -51% after midterm elections. In 2022, Bitcoin dropped -25% after midterm elections. Will BTC drop again, or is this time different?
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