A daily Pittsburgh Pirates column authored by @GMBCSuperfan. Every morning at 7am-ish. A “Good Morning Bucco Community” production #letsgobucs #WinterofBen
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Brandan Bidois -- Pirates A-to-Z
They have baseball in Australia?
I mean, I guess I know that they do. I’m familiar with the concept of international signings of players from down under, but I can’t say that I know a damn thing about how they do it there. Certainly not like I understand the model of the game in Latin America and throughout Asia.
Turns out baseball there starts with local clubs, and the best kids can go on to represent their state. There’s also a four-team pro league called the Australian Baseball League (ABL) that plays during the Aussie summer, which happens to be our offseason. It opens next Thursday, Nov. 19. Check it out on ESPN8: The Ocho.
Australia has had its moments in the bigs. Perth-born Liam Hendriks led the AL with 38 saves for the White Sox in 2021. And after the year Brandan Bidois had in the minors in 2025, I was looking forward to seeing what another Aussie right-hander might do in the Pirates’ bullpen.
We got a brief look before the Pirates sent him to Miami at the deadline for Lake Bachar, another 'B' last name player we covered earlier this week. Of all the guys we traded this season, Bidois is probably the one I hated seeing go most. Yep, even more than Sammy Stafura. Here’s why.
Revisiting the Origin Story
Bidois grew up in Brisbane, where he played for his hometown Bandits in the ABL. He was 18 when he pitched for Australia at the 2019 U-18 World Cup in South Korea, giving up two runs in 13 innings and touching 90 mph. Pirates scout Tony Harris saw enough and Pittsburgh signed him as an international free agent that September.
His development was interrupted in 2022 by -- what do you think, any guesses? -- yep, Tommy John surgery. So don’t let anyone tell you it’s a problem only with U.S. high schools and colleges. He looked good coming back at the end of 2023 but then had a bit of a downer 2024.
Then came 2025. Wowza. Bidois pitched at all four full-season levels, put up a 0.74 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP with 69 strikeouts in 61 innings, and was named the Pirates’ minor league Reliever of the Year. You may have heard this part -- over 6 weeks between AA and AAA, he faced 64 batters across 18 innings. Not one of them got a hit.
Suffice it to say, if there were any problems with the Pirates’ 2026 bullpen, Pirates' management knew thet had a 24-year-old Aussie “keen as mustard” to make his MLB debut.
Looking Back at 2026
It’s difficult what to make of Bidois’ 2026. He was coming off a season where he was near-unhittable, with a four-seam fastball-cutter-curveball combo that he struggled at times to locate. And that was really the story of 2026 -- missing his spots.
In 20.0 IP to start the year at AAA, Bidois gave up 17 BB, 21 H and 17 ER for an 8.10 ERA. When the Pirates were in the throes of their bullpen meltdown, it would have been nice to bring up the 2025 version, but they were reluctant to start his clock while he struggled so mightily.
They ultimately couldn’t afford to keep him down as the blown saves piled up, so on May 13, Bidois made his major league debut. It didn’t go well. In his first eight appearances, he gave up 4 HR. Across 15.2 IP through the end of June, he had a 6.32 ERA and was sent back down. And a month later he was sent to the Marlins.
On the Horizon -- 2027 & Beyond
Unfortunately things didn’t go much better in the Marlins system. He made 3 appearances for AAA Jacksonville before getting shut down with arm fatigue.
According to the Miami Herald, Bill Hezel, the Marlins’ Director of Pitching, is pretty high on Bidois:
“He had a great year last year, throws very hard,” Hezel said. “When we found out he was someone we could acquire, we were excited. We feel confident we will be able to get his change-up in an even better spot.”
I’m sure Bidois would like to forget 2026 ever happened and come back fresh in 2027. If he can recapture whatever it was that got into his system in 2025 that made him so dang good, there is absolutely a role for him moving forward.
There's definitely a bit of Mason Montgomery in him -- with a tweak of the mechanics, he could be really nasty. And of course, it would be super Piratey for one of the relievers we sent packing in 2026 to turn into the next great bullpen phenom.
A Final Word
As bummed as I am that we traded Bidois, I may be mourning the loss of Australian-inspired memes and turns of phrase most of all. I never even got to call him the Thunder from Down Under. I was saving that one for his first save.
Ah well. I hope he gets healthy, finds the strike zone and makes me look smart for hating the trade. Preferably against the Cubs.
#letsgobucs
ALT Sourced as-is from MLB.com with zero tomfoolery
Joey Bart: Pirates A-to-Z
Oh boy, the day I’d been waiting patiently for is finally here!
When I came up with the idea of writing an in-depth retrospective on every player who donned a Pirates jersey in 2026, I knew I would early on have to spend my 3am hour contemplating the late, great Joey Bart. What a lucky guy I am.
So it’s obviously opposite day at the Early Shift. If you’ve hung out here last offseason into the first half, you know that I was Bart’s biggest critic who couldn’t wait for him to be traded and leave town. So it’s only fitting that I should be made to spill ink on him as some sort of penance for my advocacy.
Revisiting the Origin Story
There was a time when Joey Bart was a great big deal.
Selected in the 27th round of the 2015 draft out of high school, he elected to go to college at Georgia Tech where he was declared by scouts the best catcher to ever come through that program. It was high praise given that catchers Jason Varitek and Matt Wieters were also products of the same school.
Bart was selected 2nd overall by the Giants in 2018 and was expected to become the next Buster Posey. He was billed as the total package -- a HR-hitting, high-OBP guy who had well above-average defensive skills. He did a quick run through the minors where he continued to hit before debuting in the COVID-shortened 2020 season.
It didn’t go well. More time at AAA would follow where he would continually hit well -- he has an .840 OPS across ~1,200 PA in the minors -- but just couldn’t seem to get it going with the Giants. He had a .623 OPS in 162 games for San Fran across three major league seasons. Worst, his defense that was once declared the best in Georgia Tech history had all but evaporated.
A -6 DRS in 700 innings for the Giants in 2022 with a .660 OPS, his most substantial year there, suggested the guy was just a failed prospect. Days ahead of the 2024 season, he was unceremoniously traded to the Pirates for Austin Strickland, a pitcher who hasn't gotten past A+ in multiple attempts.
Bart joined the Pirates at a time when the team’s own highly-regarded 1st round catching prospect was underperforming. Henry Davis premiered the previous season and had flopped both offensively and defensively, stuck in RF in a particular low point of the Cherington era. Bart was brought on alongside Yasmani Grandal to stabilize the catcher position, and he ended up having a breakout season.
Bart achieved a 2.2 WAR in 80 games for the Pirates in 2024, with a .265/.337/.462 line that included 13 HR. Even though his defense was still subpar, there was every expectation in 2025 that Bart was a signficiant solution at backstop. And then he put up a .699 OPS with 4 HR and a -6 DRS in 332 PA.
“Newman!”
Looking Back at 2026
I know this about myself, but I tend to be harsher on players who get my hopes up and then dash them. I was pretty high on Bart before the 2025 season, so when he underperformed, I felt tricked. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice… you can’t get fooled again, amiright?
My smear campaign to oust Bart focused on his $2.53M contract for 2026 in his second year of arbitration. In a year where the Pirates had dramatically increased payroll and brought in a bunch of bats, Cherington had passed on free agent left-handed starters and was messing around with Jose Urquidy. Surely Bart’s salary could be better spent elsewhere.
The return from injury of Endy Rodriguez and the acquisition of Rafael Flores Jr. suggested a potential logjam at catcher. But I’d been overly optimistic about their timetables. They would spend the beginning of the year in AAA, and that meant more innings for Bart.
Unfortunately, there was little improvement for him in 2026. In 62 PA across 21 games for the Pirates, he had a .670 OPS with similar lackluster defense. With Endy up and hitting well in mid-May, the writing was on the wall. Bart was flipped in mid-June to the Braves for a familiar face, Hunter Stratton.
Bart appeared in 20 games for Atlanta and was flipped again at the deadline to the White Sox where he went hitless in three starts before getting beaned and suffering a fifth metacarpal fracture in his left hand
It was an unceremonious end to his 2026 season. Born in Buford, GA, it had to feel good to be sent to Atlanta only to be shipped off to Chicago two months later where he promptly breaks his hand. Wah waaah.
On the Horizon -- 2027 & Beyond
Bart is a member of the Chicago White Sox, and in a typical season, he would likely miss the first month as he continues coming back from the broken hand. But more likely, he’ll be fully healed by the time the season commences sometime later in 2027.
He is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility before becoming a free agent in 2028, so it is a bit of a put-up-or-shut-up season for him. The White Sox were acquiring him as they awaited starting catcher Kyle Teel’s return from the IL. Bart will have a shot at being Teel’s backup for Chicago assuming they don’t acquire anyone else this offseason.
Bart’s .799 OPS for the Pirates in 2024 likely gets him multiple attempts to catch on (a pun!) for other teams. Catcher is a position without much depth across the sport, so a backup with HR potential who isn’t a complete brick wall behind the plate is going to continue getting opportunities.
A Final Word
The catcher position has been a big mess for the Pirates since Francisco Cervelli left town in 2019. The emergence of Flores last year was a silver lining and I have a lot of hope for Easton Carmichael and Axiel Plaz coming up from the minors. It seems 2024 was just a big ol' mirage for Bart who got the hopes up of Pirates fans desperate for offense.
Looking at Bart’s Statcast data, there’s nothing all that unique about his 2024 data. He’s always had above-average bat speed. When it’s going well, his barrel % and chase % are roughly average and that bat speed gets the job done. But there is also a healthy amount of luck and sequencing in that 2024 data, with him having improved across the board in 2025 and yet dropped 100 points of OPS.
It just goes to show what a difficult game baseball is. In the end, I have no hard feelings for Bart despite my constant, at time annoying calls to send him packing. The rollercoaster from #2 overall pick to trade deadline fodder is soul-sucking and nothing to celebrate.
There. Look at me. A Joey Bart remembrance with no profanity or schadenfreude. I’m proud of myself.
#LetsGoBucs
Lake Bachar: Pirates A-to-Z
I have a real soft spot for the game’s weirdos. Lake Bachar is one of those guys. Beyond his unique appearance lies an equally unique backstory befitting a dude who would look at home at a GWAR concert or Cryptid Con.
But make no mistake -- when your starter is out of the game in the 4th inning and your offense has somehow still kept you in the game, Bachar is the guy you want to see making the walk from the bullpen to give you a fighting chance. And how he got here is a pretty interesting tale.
Revisiting The Origin Story
Relievers often have a circuitous journeys to the major leagues. But even by that measure, Bachar’s road to Pittsburgh was pretty unlikely.
Continuing the football theme started with yesterday’s profile on Braxton Ashcraft, who was an incredible wide receiver in high school, Lake Bachar was originally a kicker. A graduate of Wheaton North High School in Illinois, he attended the famous University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he was an all-conference punter for the Division III football team.
I say famous because the UW–Whitewater Warhawks made history as the first school in NCAA history (in any division) to win a three-sport national sweep in a single academic year, claiming national titles in football, basketball, and baseball in 2013–14.
In fact, Bachar kicked 3 FGs in the 2014 Stagg Bowl to help the Warhawks win that national championship as a sophomore. There’s absolutely another version of his story where he ends up a kicker in the NFL. But then, his flowing long hair would spend most Sundays under a helmet. And that would be a damn shame.
Instead, the two-sport star in high school found that the extra muscle he’d added for football helped his fastball inch up past 90 mph. He walked on to his college baseball team and ended up dominating in a second sport, getting drafted by the Padres in the 5th round of the 2016 draft.
You read that right. Bachar was drafted way back in 2016 as a 21-year old and spent 8 years bouncing around the minor leagues before debuting as a reliever for the Marlins at age 29 in 2024. Yo-yoing as a starter and reliever, his slider and curveball were standout pitches that kept him getting opportunities.
He was the #29/30 ranked prospect for the Padres when he underwent a Tommy John surgery in 2021 and was later released as a minor league free agent in 2023. Re-signed with the Padres, he was later selected off waivers by Miami where he appeared in 10 games for the Marlins in 2024.
He returned to their bullpen in 2025 and went 8-2 with a 3.95 ERA -- numbers he’d repeat in 2026 before being traded to the Pirates at the deadline this past August.
Looking Back at 2026
Of course, as we all know, the signature challenge for the 2026 Pirates was a miserable bullpen for two solid months way too early in the season to do much about it. When your entire bullpen falls apart in early May, with 10 blown saves for losses over a two month period, there isn’t much recourse.
By the time Bachar was being traded to the Pirates on August 3 in exchange for Brandan Bidois, Hyun Seung Lee and Brian Sanchez, the team was already basically out of it. The remainder of that month would hammer that nail deeper, but it was already there that final day of the trade deadline.
Still, it was refreshing to suddenly have a sparkly new bullpen. Bachar was not supposed to be the highlight of the four that came in, but he absolutely was. His 2.57 ERA across 15 appearances, including eight as opener, was pretty strong. He achieved a 0.9 WAR for the Pirates in just 28.0 IP with 32 K and an impressive ability to limit contact.
He took over for Carmen Mlodzinski as the team’s opener during the nearly two-month period of covering for Mitch Keller’s spot in the rotation after he went down with his injury in early August.
Across both teams in 2026, he had a 78th percentile xERA of 3.39 and a 90th percentile xBA of .199. With fairly pedestrian velocity and offspeed stuff, his breaking offerings are legit elite and led to an outstanding whiff rate, K rate and hard-hit rate.
He was a welcomed addition to the bullpen, for sure.
On the Horizon -- 2027 & Beyond
Suffice it to say, Bachar’s unlikely journey to the major leagues finds him as a 31-year old reliever for the Pirates who won’t be arbitration eligible until 2028 in his age 33 season. Sometimes the sport is funny that way.
Relievers are traditionally failed starters who may look a little funny on paper. Bachar’s utilitarian history prepares him well as a bulk reliever who may eventually settle in as a RH middle reliever for the Pirates. So long as he continues placing his curveball and slider, there’s no reason to think he can’t be a bedrock of the bullpen.
But relievers without strong fastballs have a way of hitting lulls. Just look to Dennis Santana last year as a cautionary tale -- another scrap heap bullpen guy who excelled until he suddenly didn’t. I’m not wishing that juju on anyone, but we have to be realistic and clear-eyed about these late bloomers.
I am mostly hopeful Bachar can repeat his 2026 success, with a 3.25-3.50 ERA and a lot of multi-inning relief appearances where he continues limiting hard contact. There will always be a role for a guy like that.
A Final Word
All signs are pointing to a much better bullpen for the Pirates in 2027, and Bachar appears to be one of the guys who will be penciled in as a component piece.
I can’t help but see him as the sort of player the deal being offered by the owners to the MLBPA is meant to serve. Bachar won’t be a free agent until 2031 following his age 36 season. When you think about who would benefit most from an increased minimum salary and a shortened runway to free agency, it’s a guy like Bachar.
For now, he’s exactly the archetype a small market team like the Pirates covet -- a seasoned specialist who is inexpensive and dependable.
Oh, and the hair. This column is only scratching the surface as Bachar is a pretty intriguing dude. He’s into the paranormal and ghost hunting. He calls his hairstyle “the lettuce.” There’s a lot here.
We’ll unpack these mysteries in a future installment, no doubt.
#LetsGoBucs
ALT From MLB.com
Recovery of the 2026 Bullpen
“We have some bullpen, eh?”
This was already planned as the column topic before Mason Montgomery ended his 24.2 inning scoreless streak in spectacular fashion yesterday, giving up 3ER and a walk-off home run in a blown save to earn the loss.
It came down to the last pitch of the game, an 87-mph curveball with two strikes against Eduardo Valencia that was launched into the left field seats. Why a curveball when his sinker had baffled so many hitters for months? He’ll have a chance to contemplate that all offseason.
But let’s call yesterday and aberration. The bullpen has been much better of late, which is the damn point of this column. So let’s get to it.
A Bullpen Reformed
Since August 1, the Pirates have the 7th best bullpen ERA in baseball at 3.45 with just 6 blown saves, which is on the low end. They’ve given up just 12 HR, which is second best in baseball over these months.
This is particularly impressive given the number of bullpen games tossed by the Pirates, with their 221.2 IP as relievers over these two months the third highest in MLB. As a result, they have the highest team WAR in baseball for their bullpen at 4.1 since the start of August.
It’s a complete turnaround for a team whose signature challenge earlier in the season was a relief corps in crisis. From May 1 through the ASB, the Pirates had a bottom-third bullpen in baseball by most measures -- 8th worst ERA (4.91), 7th worst WAR (0.0), and 3rd worst BB/9 (4.69), just to give you the flavor.
It was miserable. And we all lived through it. We are brothers and sisters in trauma as a result. But our redemption these last two months was not as expected.
An Unlikely Outcome
At the trade deadline, GM Ben Cherington brought in reinforcements in the form of four relievers. The day was headlined by trading for Luke Weaver, sending Sammy Stafura to the Mets for him.
They also acquired Kirby Yates, who announced his retirement after yesterday's game, and Lake Bachar. They joined Camilo Doval, acquired the week previous, as half of the Pirates new-look bullpen.
What the Pirates couldn’t have expected was a reversal of fortune for several of the relievers who had contributed to the mess earlier in the season. Since August 1:
▫️Mason Montgomery has been incredible (yesterday notwithstanding) with a 1.19 ERA, giving up 3 ER in 22.2 IP including 15 saves. He’s easily our new closer of record, and we have four more years with him.
▫️Yohan Ramirez has a 2.33 ERA over his last 27.0 ERA with 36 K. As lost as he seemed earlier this season, uncertain of where his slider was going, he has been outstanding these last two months.
▫️Carmen Mlodzinski (3.09 ERA) and Gregory Soto (3.32 ERA) have been solid themselves, especially by comparison to earlier in the season. That’s not to say they’ve been perfect, with some ill-timed games.
These have been the go-to relievers this summer. Luke Weaver (4.96 ERA in 16.1 IP) had horrible poison ivy, so maybe we cut him some slack, but he’s been a disappointment. Camilo Dotel was recently DFA’d for his middling performance (3.79 ERA) since he was acquired.
Looking Ahead to 2027 (ITIAS)
It would seem Montgomery, who doesn’t reach arbitration until 2028, and Ramirez, whose first arb year is next year, are locks for next year’s bullpen. Weaver, despite his troubles, is also signed for 2027 with the Mets covering some of his salary.
The battle for the LOOGY-like role seems Brandon Eisert’s to lose. His 2.79 ERA since coming back has been pretty strong, especially compared to Evan Sisk who has let so many inherited runners score.
Bachar has been really decent and has probably earned himself the bulk relief role. I’m thinking he replaces Mlodzinski who should be packaged and shipped this offseason.
The rest? It all depends on how much money we have to spend. There’s no way we retain Brandon Lowe and invest heavily in our bullpen without a favorable CBA.
The Bottom Line
It’s been quite a journey. Today is the final game of the season, and we're still talking about the damn bullpen. We certainly can't go through another season like this, which means ensuring we have a relief corps that can help us get to the playoffs.
There is so much up in the air about next season. It is now well-expected that the season will not start on time at the very least. It seems likely that the owners are willing to burn some piles of money to get a cap-and-floor, so this is going to be drawn out.
In a short season, we can't afford to have a bullpen melting down as we've experienced this year. We just can't. I personally have PTSD about it and will need the offseason to repair.
Now, let's get the win today and end the season with a winning record for Christ's sake. #letsgobucs
ALT Photo from MLB.com
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39
Sick of the Bullpen Games Yet? It's Understandable.
Last night the Pirates lost 5-1 as Brandon Eisert and Khristian Curtis combined to give up 5 ER in the 3rd and 4th innings. It deflated the Pirates’ sails on a night when Brandon Lowe hit his 34th home run of the season. Wah waaah.
You might be thinking to yourself, “what is with all these bullpen games -- I hate them!” And I get it. As a refresher, I wrote about the team’s use of the bullpen game as a strategy two weeks ago. It’s pinned at the bottom of this post.
At the time, the team had won three bullpen games in a row, filling the spot vacated by Mitch Keller. The team had originally intended for Carmen Mlodzinski to move into that spot as a starter, but after three miserable outings that became by-committee games by default, the Pirates committed to them in earnest by mid-August.
And then Braxton Ashcraft went down with mysterious arm fatigue that required a vigorous treatment schedule of late night PlayStation tournaments and THC seltzers. In his place, the Pirates thought long and hard about how best to fill the spot and decided, you know what, why mess with a good thing? So now we have two bullpen games a week.
Maybe An Odd Playoff Pursuit Strategy
Technically, the Pirates were still in the hunt for a playoff spot at the time Ashcraft went on vacation, but he had his PTO approved by HR way before anyone thought we’d be fighting for our playoff lives in September. He had simply reached his innings limit.
Ben Cherington got some gruff for not having a better back-up plan, especially since they knew Ashcraft would need to be shut down. I think the original plan was for bullpen games to only be activated to replace Ashcraft in mid-September. Mlodzinski was supposed to take Keller’s spot, but it just didn’t work out that way.
And it didn’t matter much anyway -- the Padres have been lights out this month, making the number of wins needed to reach the playoffs closer to 90 than the 85 we thought we’d need.
Unfortunately, there just wasn’t a likely path to 90 wins given their August collapse, and that was hardly the bullpen’s fault. The Pirates offense was 29th in baseball with a 75 wRC+ in the month of August, scoring just 97 runs in 27 games. The bats disappeared and the team went 10-20 from July 22 through August 23.
Results from Recent Deployment
Since the bullpen games went to two-a-weeks, the results have been pretty up-and-down:
▫️Sept 11 @ Cubs (Loss) -- I had some high hopes for this game opened by Wilber Dotel that quickly got out of hand. After he gave up 3 ER in two IP, he was relieved by Curtis who gave up 6 ER in three IP, and Antwone Kelly came on to give up another 3 ER, resulting in a 12-2 loss. If these are our starting pitcher candidates for 2027, we got problems.
▫️Sept 15 vs. Brewers (Loss) -- Lake Bachar took the loss in this one after giving up just one ER in the first two innings. We were up against Jacob Misiorowski and just didn’t score. Eisert, Yohan Ramirez, Dotel and Kelly all hung zeros, but Gregory Soto gave up 4 ER en route to a 5-1 loss.
▫️Sept 17 vs. Brewers (Win) -- This was a great deployment of the model with Dotel and Curtis opening the game, giving up just 1 ER each over the first 5.1 IP. Luke Weaver gave up two runs in the 8th, but the result was a 7-4 win.
▫️Sept 20 vs. Royals (Win) -- This was another solid edition of the bullpen game strategy. Bachar, Ramirez and Dotel provided five innings with just 1 ER given up, but then Mlodzinski came on and offered up 2 ER in middle relief. But for once, the Pirates rose to the challenge and scored late, winning 4-3.
The Bottom Line 📌
As an opportunity to road test our internal starting pitching options, the two-bullpen-games-per-week era has provided increased opportunities to see what Dotel, Curtis, Kelly, Mlodzinski and Bachar can offer.
The results have been okay -- not horrible, but also not a rousing success. Above all, none of these pitchers seem to be an obvious candidate to pencil in for a starting role in next year’s rotation. And that's really what this period has afforded -- an audition.
Barring any injuries, a 2027 rotation (ITIAS) headed by Paul Skenes, Ashcraft, Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler seems like it could be really special.
Ideally Keller is nowhere near that starting rotation, but I'm afraid none of these bulk guys makes sense either. We need to go outside to get preferably a left-handed starter. It needs to be one of the top items on Cherington's shopping list.
In the meantime, barring something strange, we should have one more bullpen game on Saturday against Detroit, with Skenes going tonight, Chandler tomorrow, and a final start by a surging Jared Jones on Sunday.
#letsgobucs
ALT Sourced from MLB.com
19
Braxton Ashcraft: Pirates A-to-Z
Today we kick-off the alphabetical run-down of the players who appeared in Pirates games in 2026 with a helluva start. Braxton Ashcraft was the Pirates most consistently effective starting pitcher this past season and a tremendous building block who isn’t arbitration eligible until 2029.
@AileenBowers20 calls him “Acecraft,” a nickname that is completely fitting. He’s a pitcher who doesn’t have to throw 100-mph to be effective, and in some of his best starts, he didn’t strike out that many batters (though he did have 173 K in 165.1 innings of work).
He was just the stopper -- a pitcher who consistently got the win and thwarted losing streaks, ending the season with a 14-6 record, a 3.65 ERA and being named to the NL All-Star team. If not for a brief lull of ineffectiveness in late June and July, he might have made some Cy Young ballots.
He was that good.
Revisiting The Origin Story
He almost played a different sport altogether. With the Steelers desperate for a wide receiver, they could do worse than Ashcraft. During his record-setting junior year of high school in Texas, he caught 204 passes for 2,090 yards and and astounding 37 touchdowns. Not for his career -- in a single. damn. season. His highlight during his junior year was a 7 TD game. And we're talking about Texas-brand high school football.
In his senior year, Ashcraft concentrated on baseball and a $1.825 million bonus from the Pirates in the second round of the 2018 MLB draft drew him away from playing at Baylor, his hometown school.
His early work in the system did not match the pitcher he would become. His first season with the Single-A WV Power was poor, with a 1-9 record and a 5.77 ERA. Then came the injury bug. He underwent surgery on his non-throwing shoulder in 2019, and his knee during 2020, before moving up to Greensboro in 2021 where after 10 starts he went out with Tommy John surgery.
That many surgeries so early in a career may have kept him from ever fulfilling his promise. But not Ashcraft, who reemerged in 2023 as an all-new pitcher. His velocity took a big step forward that season and he ended with a 2.39 ERA across 52.2 IP and a promotion to Altoona.
He returned to AA the next season and demonstrated an uncanny ability to attack hitters with just 8 BB in 53.2 innings. In 2025, he was eventually called up to join the Pirates' bullpen before entering the rotation. His 2.71 ERA across 69.2 innings in his first taste of major league action was a sign of things to come.
Looking Back at 2026
Ashcraft started the season as an unquestioned member of the starting rotation alongside Paul Skenes and rookie Bubba Chandler. Those three remain mainstays, alongside mid-year addition Jared Jones back from injury, creating a formidable rotation for the foreseeable future.
Much of the attention to start the year was on others in the rotation, with Chandler expected to challenge for ROY and Skenes for his second CYA. But it was Ashcraft who got everyone’s attention. After a solid start to March and April, his 1.99 ERA across 40.1 innings in May announced the arrival of a truly special pitcher.
A fast worker, Ashcraft is typically the first out of the dugout and sprinting to the mound. He keeps hitters off-balance by getting set and firing it in as soon as possible, creating an unrelenting pace. It leads to a high degree of efficiency -- just a 1.9 BB/9 against 9.4 K/9.
In 2026, Ashcraft decreased his reliance on his slider -- traditionally his bread and butter -- through a combination of a four-seam fastball, a resurgent curveball, and a sinker thrown nearly as hard as his fastball. It’s a repertoire that worked really well… until the movement on his slider faded in July.
A rough set of starts led to a change of mix to play up the sinker and curveball even more, giving way to more dominance in August (2.13 ERA in 38.0 IP) before inning limits forced him out in early September. He went far deeper into the season than I expected, going from 117 IP in 2025 across AAA and the Pirates, to 165.1 IP last season.
In his final start of the year on September 5, he had 9 K in 5 IP, with zero signs of arm fatigue. He’ll be locked and loaded for a 200-inning season the next time he pitches.
On the Horizon -- 2027 & Beyond
But will any MLB pitcher have an opportunity to throw that many innings next season? That’s the question as the sport hurtles toward the December 1, 11:59pm deadline and the start of the owner lockout.
If we end up getting a shortened season of some sort, Ashcraft would still seem to be super well-positioned as the #2 behind Skenes. He had a 3.07 ERA in his first 16 starts of the season, suggesting he can be counted on to deliver, especially when the arm is super fresh.
There are very few question marks in his game. He is coming off a season where he was 95th percentile in overall pitching run value, driven by an incredible 99th percentile breaking run value. His 97th percentile chase % was elite, as was his 95th percentile BB %.
As a guy who attacks hitters, his 22nd percentile hard-hit % and 21st percentile average exit velocity can get him in trouble. His struggles last summer related to a drop-off in movement on his slider, leaving it in the middle of the plate, which he corrected for. The hard sinker induced prodigious groundball outs, and a better defense behind him (especially at 3B) would help.
But folks, this is a starter around which to construct the future. Some may be hesitant to lock him up given his TJ surgery in 2021, but I’m just the opposite. Buddy boy has a brand-new arm as far as I’m concerned. I’d be in favor of buying him out of a free agent season or two, especially if we get the cap and have extra cash to spend retaining players.
A Final Word
Ashcraft reminds me a little of another pitcher with a Texas connection -- Mike Scott of the Astros. When his slider gave him some troubles, he locked in on a split-finger fastball and rode that to a 2.22 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP that earned him the Cy Young Award in 1986.
By early August of this past season, Ashcraft’s hard sinker produced a ground-ball rate of nearly 73%, placing him in the top 5% of the league. Leaning on the sinker helps his slider and curveball play up while saving the arm from fatigue.
It could be the winning combination that, like Scott, wins him his own CYA someday. For now, he’s an incredible, controllable #2 pitcher to pencil in for years (and years!) to come.
#Acecraft, indeed.
#LetsGoBucs
ALT From MLB.com
Can we finally lose our minds yet?
I’m a Braxton Ashcraft aficionado. If you are as well, welcome to the club. We grow luxurious locks and stoically kick ass around here. It’s our thing.
I think last night was a tipping point in the appreciation of our man in a larger national context. Words like “elite” and “ace” have started to be attached to him, and I saw more than one non-Pirates fan note he is one to watch on the Cy Young front.
It is a continuation of domination that started as soon as he came up as a reliever in 2025, but has been even more apparent since he moved into the rotation as a starter.
I ascribe to August 9, 2025 as the date of Ashcraft’s true ascension to starter status, noted by Jason Mackey in his excellent deep dive earlier this season:
mlb.com/news/pirates-braxton…
In 16 starts since last August, Ashcraft has been ultra reliable as a mid-2.00 ERA starter who is both highly efficient while also striking guys out. Key to that is not issuing many walks (he had none last night) and dialing up velocity when needed (he hit 99 mph last night).
I know the W-L record is not on him, but it feels criminal that he doesn’t have more wins over this run than he does.
It does feel like we are witnessing in real-time the emergence of another elite arm alongside Skenes. Not subordinate. Not little brother-ish. Instead a guy you count on to dominate the competition every time he goes out there.
I’ve already lost my mind on his talent, and if you’re there too, let’s all comb our flowing quasi-mullets and dream on the future together.
<sigh>
#letsgobucs
ALT Adapted from MLB.com profile
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Remaining Bullish on Braxton Ashcraft
We’re about a month into the season, and one of my boldest pre-season predictions is already unlikely to come true.
I had Braxton Ashcraft pegged for 16 wins in 21 starts. That would have required near-perfect deployment -- basically a season with almost no wasted outings. It was an audacious-bordering-on-stupid prediction that was highly unlikely to come true.
And… it isn’t. Coming true. Yeah, no, not damn likely.
Ashcraft is 1–1 across 29.2 innings, with three consecutive no-decisions. His most recent start last night was his longest and most efficient at the major league level (7 IP, 94 pitches), yet still did not result in a win.
So maybe 16 wins is unrealistic (duh!), but just how far will Ashcraft go this year? And what will it take for the rest of the baseball world to notice?
So, How Good Has He Been?
He’s been really, really good.
In five starts thus far this season, Ashcraft has a 2.43 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 32 strikeouts against 9 walks. His Statcast card is robustly red with superlatives: 96th percentile xERA (1.99), 93rd percentile opponent batting average (.171), 84th percentile strikeout rate (29.7%), and 84th percentile ground-ball rate (53.6%).
This is rare, ace-level performance, missing bats and inducing weak grounders. The data suggests many of his pitches have improved year-over-year, with breaking ball effectiveness, fastball run value and chase rate all dialed up.
And that improvement comes from an already effective spot. In 2025, Ashcraft posted a 2.71 ERA over 69.2 innings with strong contact management but a more moderate strikeout profile (62nd percentile K rate). The 2026 version shows increased swing-and-miss without sacrificing batted-ball control.
Is This Who He Is?
In a word: yes. In a few more words: I think so given the data.
Across 13 major league starts spanning 2025 and 2026, Ashcraft has maintained a mid-2.00s ERA with consistent underlying indicators. He has shown the ability to navigate lineups multiple times without significant decline in effectiveness.
Heck, there’s even still room for improvement. His offspeed run value remains below average (23rd percentile), and the walk rate reflects a lingering tendency to nibble. But overall, I don’t see anything that suggests he will revert to the ~5.00 ERA pitcher he was before his TJ surgery in 2022.
Why Only 21 Starts?
Ashcraft is in his first full season as a major league starter, having never thrown more than 117 innings in a season (and that was just last season).
This year, he has averaged just under six innings per start, with pitch counts typically in the 85–95 range. The Pirates have consistently limited exposure the third time through the order and avoided extending pitch counts for all starters.
Preserving health and effectiveness across the full rotation appears to be the priority, particularly given Ashcraft’s post–surgery, multi-year workload progression. I’m seeing ~21-22 starts and 140 IP as his cap for the year. He may even find the DL this summer just to keep him around through a playoff run.
Is Ashcraft Him?
I’m willing to bet (with Bob Nutting’s money) that he is.
Ashcraft has the makings of a long-term #2 rotation guy for the Pirates, and likely a #1 guy in lesser rotations. The profile feels like it will age well, and with TJ out of the way, his is the one arm of the big three I think we can confidently invest in without worry.
A long-term extension, as I’ve previously suggested, just makes sense. Something in the range of 7 years and ~$80 million beginning in 2027 would secure cost certainty through his arbitration years and into early free agency. It would essentially pick up in 2029 where Keller’s contract runs out.
Bottom Line 📌
While it’s unlikely, Ashcraft would (just) need to win 15 of his next 17 or so games started to make my prediction a reality.
Cue Jim Carrey: “So you’re saying there’s a chance!”
Regardless of his ultimate win total, Ashcraft is accomplishing something special for Pittsburgh this year. It’s time we bought in, both figuratively and financially.
ALT Adapted from a video by SportsNet Pittsburgh
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Braxton Ashcraft 2026 Projections
ZiPS: 6–6, 3.61 ERA, 98 K, 107.1 IP, 1.9 WAR
Steamer: 8–9, 4.03 ERA, 120 K, 141 IP, 1.7 WAR
Sometimes the key to finally breaking through competitively isn’t a blockbuster signing (ahem, Dodgers) or a blue-chip prospect reaching his ceiling, but the happy accidents and welcomed surprises of players outperforming their projections.
Braxton Ashcraft fits that mold. A slow riser who quietly authored a standout first foray at the MLB level last season, he looks like the kind of development win that could be a difference maker.
Perhaps it shouldn’t be such a surprise. A second-round pick out of high school in 2018, Ashcraft’s early professional years were unremarkable before Tommy John surgery shut him down in 2021. When he returned, he came back reborn. The fastball ticked up, averaging 95–96 mph and touching 98 with real life, giving him an above-average heater to pair with a plus slider and a quality curveball.
Maybe they should just prescribe preventive Tommy John surgery to all underperforming pitchers in Single-A. Could that be a thing? Maybe?
That post-surgery arc reached its zenith last season. Ashcraft made 26 appearances for the Pirates, including eight starts, and logged 69.2 innings with a 2.71 ERA and better than a strikeout per inning. It was enough to earn him a spot in the 2026 rotation — and yes, I’m slotting him here as the #3, even ahead of tomorrow’s profile Mitch Keller.
The projection systems, unsurprisingly, are less romantic. ZiPS and Steamer both expect regression, forecasting a return to earth with fewer innings and more pedestrian run prevention. Once again, we’re tasked with reconciling why the models remain unmoved by fan-induced hopium.
Tale of Two Seasons 📖
For as dominant as Ashcraft looked in Pittsburgh, his time in Indianapolis last year tells a messier story. In ten Triple-A starts, he posted a 5.40 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. He was brought up more because the Pirates needed an arm than that he was banging down the door.
Those ten starts increasingly look like noise. His major league results aligned far more closely with his 2024 season, when he posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP across two levels in 16 games, 14 of them starts.
Weak Contact & Groundball Outs 👎
Ashcraft’s Statcast profile lays out the strongest case for sustained success. His breaking stuff is doing real damage to hitters’ plans, with an elite Breaking Run Value (87th percentile). The downstream effects are exactly what you want to see: an 85th-percentile ground-ball rate and an incredible 94th-percentile barrel rate.
Hitters, forced to respect the fastball, are offering defensively at his breakers and putting the ball in play without authority. It’s a profile built on contact management rather than pure swing-and-miss, and it does underscore the importance of competent infield defense behind him.
Attacking Hitters & Not Nibbling 👊
The primary blemish in the profile shows up both in the Statcast data and the traditional line: a rising walk rate. That’s not altogether surprising given his approach. Ashcraft sets hitters up with pitches designed to miss the zone, inviting chases that turn into ground balls.
The risk comes when hitters don’t bite. When the slider and curveball are taken rather than chased, Ashcraft is left leaning on a fastball and changeup that are closer to average than dominant. Continued growth here — either sharper fastball command or a more reliable third offering — will determine whether he sustains success over a full season.
The Bottom Line 📌
I feel a bit like a broken record, but I believe in Braxton Ashcraft. His success to date is supported by contact suppression, pitch quality, and a post-surgery reinvention that looks real. If Ashcraft holds his ground-ball profile and makes even modest gains in command, the gap between projection and performance could be substantial.
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Hunter Barco: Pirates A-to-Z
It’s hard to believe now, but there was a real belief back in March that Hunter Barco was ready to be a major league pitcher. And one of those believers was me. I advocated pretty hard before the season began to see him be given a shot.
He surprisingly broke camp with the Pirates and traveled north to start the season in the bullpen, possibly to even be the elusive left-handed starter in the rotation if everything went well.
Unfortunately, things didn’t go well at all. A string of blow up innings and an awkward shuffle pass to the catcher later, and Barco quickly became persona non grata.
Today we’ll unpack what happened and where we go from here.
Revisiting the Origin Story
Barco is from Jacksonville, FL and attended the Bolles School, the same private school that Chipper Jones attended two decades before. It’s known for its baseball program and attracts the best talent in North Florida.
He was a highly-regarded high school pitcher but ended up attending University of Florida where he made a name for himself in the Gator rotation. His deceptive 3/4 arm slot tends to play up in lower levels, and it worked for him until he had to undergo Tommy John surgery in May 2022 during his junior year, derailing what was otherwise a solid collegiate career.
If you’re keeping track, Barco is the third of three pitchers in our alphabetical retelling of the 2026 season who underwent TJ surgery at some point. It has become such a commonplace part of the game that Barco was picked by the Pirates in the second round of the 2022 draft just a few month later despite the injury. The Pirates had faith he would rebound.
His return at the end of 2023 and into 2024 went well, proving the theory that a fresh arm gives kids with solid mechanics a new lease on life. He had a 3.27 ERA across A+/AA in 2024 and a 2.81 ERA in 99.1 IP and 23 starts in AA/AAA in 2025.
It makes sense that the Pirates would think that he might be ready to ride the wave of success to Pittsburgh.
Looking Back at 2026
Barco had a great spring, appearing in five games and making two starts, with a 2.31 ERA across 11.2 IP with 15 K. The one question mark was his 8 BB in those brief innings. But certainly one can make allowances for nerves when a kid is having his first real taste of MLB. He had pitched a few innings the spring before, and made one fall appearance for the Pirates, but this was completely different.
At the very end of spring training, Barco’s father responded cryptically to a post of mine of X suggesting he would join the AAA rotation, breaking news before the Pirates announced that he would actually be going to Pittsburgh. It was quite a moment for my young account that I’ll link below.
Needless to say, there was a lot of excitement for his first appearances in a Pirates jersey. And unfortunately, it didn’t work out for him. Like, abysmally so.
Here’s a good Jeopardy question for you: in a season defined by the Pirates’ bullpen blowing saves left and right, which pitcher was the first to register a BS in 2026? Yep, it was Barco on March 28 giving up 4 runs in the 11th of a game against the Mets that was scoreless until the Pirates scored two in the top of that inning.
It was just the first of a series of ineffective relief appearances that culminated with giving up 5 runs across 4.2 innings in a game against the Cardinals on April 28. After a month of attempts to shake off the willies, he was sent back down to AAA.
What happened next is a little quixotic. He spent most of the season in AAA but went on the IL and was sent to Florida for a month in June and July, making one appearance with the FCL before returning. Little was disclosed about the injury -- at the time I wondered whether it was potentially a mental health break after a disruptive spring.
He ended his AAA season with a 3.79 ERA in nearly 80 innings, roughly in line with his previous performance in 2024-2025. But that was juxtaposed with a 7.64 ERA in 17.2 IP for the Pirates. Oof.
On the Horizon -- 2027 & Beyond
Barco joins a number of guys who are on the fringes of the major league club. Talented starters like Wilber Dotel, Antwone Kelly and Khristian Curtis join Barco as guys who got a look in 2026 and return to the mix for 2027. Each has a different outlook and we'll cover them all over the weeks ahead.
The Pirates have a need for a left-handed starter if they can find a team willing to take on the final two (expensive) seasons of Mitch Keller’s contract. But it doesn’t seem likely that the Pirates would jettison Keller just to hand that rotation spot to an untested Barco.
The Pirates have a few gaps in their bullpen, and could look to this group as options. They need a left-handed leverage reliever, but my hope is that they bring in a seasoned bullpen piece. After the team's pitching woes in 2026, there just isn’t much appetite for nurturing a young hurler who has failed in multiple attempts.
Barco may end up just being a good change-of-scenery candidate as a former 2nd rounder who has a 3.28 ERA in 263.2 minor league seasons. As we consider how best to move on from Keller, packaging him with other talent would seem to be the best way to do it. Barco could be coveted by another team with a pitching coach who sees something in his approach that can be fixed.
A Final Word
The crisis in the bullpen last year meant every AAA starter was given a look as a reliever. I don’t know that it was a great strategy overall, though it was really the only one available to the team.
Some starters seem to do fine with it. Braxton Ashcraft, as detailed the other day, came up in 2025 and was very effective from the bullpen before moving into the rotation. But for some pitchers, coming into a game with runs already in the board may be psychologically challenging.
Barco strikes me as that kind of guy. I don’t have data to back that up, but it appears to me that 2026 might have elicited some trauma that needed to be managed. I’m hopeful he can rebound, but I don’t think it is as easy as it sounds.
The alternative is that he needs more time to find his footing. But with a win-now attitude, the Pirates don't have innings to give to a guy who is going be awful before he gets better. Maybe in 2021, but not in 2027 when we may have a shortened season and every game will count even more.
Or, you know, he could just be a AAAA guy, and there are a lot of those in the world. Whichever he is, I’m not particularly bullish that he is a part of the Pirates' plans moving forward.
I’d be happy to be proven wrong. I was pretty high on him once upon a time. Many of us were.
#LetsGoBucs
ALT From MLB.com
Breaking News: Okay, So That Happened
I was up pretty late last night.
As a guy who wakes up ridiculously early (like 2:30 am most days), I’m usually not one to see much beyond 9pm. If I'm still up at 10pm, it usually means something’s wrong, like a sad phone call in the middle of the night, or puking food sickness, or weighty concerns for the world.
So what was I doing pacing my office as the clock struck 11pm last night?
Just as I was drifting off to sleep, confirmation of Hunter Barco’s path forward dropped in my lap. It isn’t worth getting into how that occurred -- I intend to protect my source publicly -- but suffice it to say, I had a choice to make: to publish or not publish.
The information had been shared in the thread of another post I started, very nonchalantly, and it didn’t come with any caveats. So I posted my first ever BREAKING item, shared it with Colin Beazley with PG to confirm it, and waited.
This was not particularly hot gossip. The only part of the roster that remained undetermined was which two were going to the pen of those still in the mix: Barco, Mike Clevinger and Jose Urquidy. An announcement surely would have come today or tomorrow regardless.
But in that moment, it felt invigorating to be a part of breaking news early. As the likes and reshares climbed, all that remained was to get it confirmed.
The Role of Traditional Journalism
I’ll be sharing a series soon on the state of Pittsburgh sports journalism, but suffice it to say, the loss of official channels is concerning. Sharing news like this with Colin, known as a 'tip,' typically leads to a formal process of confirming the rumor with team spokespeople.
Someone with authority and credibility has to actually reach out to the team and share the facts: someone shared this tip, is it factual or not? Even if everyone involved wishes the team could just announce this today as expected (which is how this felt), there is a journalistic obligation to help information reach the general public. Gatekeeping would trade on core journalistic values.
Given that the tip originated from my own post, and I had already posted it to my followership, I assumed I’d get solo attribution as having published it first, but Colin informed me that others had seen it as well and had passed it on. So despite my role in it, I’m acknowledged alongside the other guys. Stolen valor. 😀 Wah waaaah...
I offered proof of the source and exclusivity to PG for it, and only asked for a follow in return. To-date, Colin has been reluctant to follow me back.
A Brief Foray Into Actual Reporting
This was probably something that won’t be replicated anytime soon. I’m a guy without access to much primary research or sources. No one with the Pirates is inviting me down to spring training, offering me on-field access, and lining up players to sit in fold-up chairs for me to interview.
I use freely accessible data and my own keen instincts to try and create meaningful content that helps people make sense of the team, its moves, and our relative place in the league. I use primarily statistical analysis, but look for narratives that tie it all together. I publish one substantive column each day, and I own that it is opinion content.
But make no mistake, I am also one of those quasi-journalists. My morning column is called The Early Shift. I write for what is becoming an amazing group of people with whom I'm forming real relationships and belonging. While it is an unpaid role, I approach it the same way I do other professional pursuits. I am not a hobbyist. My content is, I think, strong. I have a voice and personality and I enjoy crafting every post from scratch.
I’ve been accused, by people with that access I mentioned above, of being an AI-driven content creator. It is the sort of base accusation meant to wound me. People who question the motives of hand-in-glove outlets benefitting from chummy relationships with the team they purport to cover don't tend to win friends with said content creators.
For other people who see a regular diet of 700-word columns every. single. day. it must seem like there is no way someone with a day job like me could create the content I do. This despite having previously published background on my process and my professional skills.
I think that’s particularly true of young Millennials and Gen-Zers who believe (incorrectly) that the only medium that matters is video. Long form written content has largely disappeared, and the people that do provide it have neck beards half their age calling them names, throwing terms like 'AI slop' around.
It's the only way to compartmentalize what I'm doing here. It helps them be dismissive of it.
An Outsider’s Perspective
But see, that’s why outsider journalism is so important. Systems -- all kinds of systems including government, corporations, member-organizations, and yes, sports teams -- seek to minimize risk and eliminate criticism. If those who are purportedly covering them journalistically fly too close to the sun, that creates win-win-win frameworks that tend to benefit the subject matter being covered.
Criticism is healthy and good. We should question the official statement on anything. We should interrogate what we are being told. Blind compliance is not healthy. The people who do are often labeled rabble-rousers, and treated poorly by the people benefitting from the way things are. That's a story as old as time.
For now, I'm riding high in this stupid little weird world I've created for myself. This has been such a fun diversion, and folks, I am just getting started.
Last night carried me pretty close to 1,000 followers, my goal for March. Just 27 more follows to get to the promised land where surely I will will the respect of my fellow quasi-journalists and be extended the courtesies afforded others of their ilk.
Right? Guys?
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Hunter Barco should be the #5 starter heading north… if you start Konnor Griffin’s clock, start all the clocks.
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Nice to see Hunter Barco make MLB Pipeline’s Top-100 prospects, coming in at #96:
“Big and physical, the 6-foot-4 Barco is a lefty with as many as four pitches at his disposal. While his fastball sits around 93 mph and tops out at 96 mph, hitters don’t see it and don’t square it up thanks to his funky delivery and the shape of the pitch. His 84-85 mph splitter might be his best secondary offering at this point, killing spin and missing a lot of bats. His low-80s slider can also be an out pitch at times, and he’s added a mid-80s cutter to his arsenal.”
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Hunter Barco 2026 Projections
ZiPS: 3-3, 4.23 ERA, 82 K, 87.1 IP, 1.1 WAR
Steamer: 6-7, 4.59 ERA, 102 K, 116.0 IP, 1.2 WAR
I really like Hunter Barco. I expect him to be the fifth rotation arm following the trade deadline, likely stepping in for the veteran left-hander the Pirates still haven’t signed and will almost certainly flip in July.
Barco’s profile has always been projection-forward. Drafted in the second round out of University of Florida while rehabbing Tommy John surgery, his early pro career was mostly the stuff of imagination and projection.
That changed in 2025 when he cleared 100 innings for the first time, held his stuff across multiple levels, and proved his body could sustain a starter’s workload.
The early results were pretty damn eye-opening. At Double-A Altoona, Barco opened the year with 25.2 scoreless innings across six starts (!!), allowing just 11 hits with 34 strikeouts against seven walks. The promotion to Indianapolis brought some expected regression, but manageably so. In 73.2 Triple-A innings, he posted a 3.79 ERA with 82 strikeouts, holding his own while refining secondary command against more mature bats.
Looking ahead to 2026, the most likely outcome has Barco opening the year in Indianapolis as rotation depth with a short leash to Pittsburgh. Steamer predicts 100+ innings, and both projection systems suggest 1.0+ WAR impact. He is built to be the first call if injuries, workload management, or deadline trades create an opening.
When he does return, the evaluation will hinge on how his unique traits translate against major league lineups.
Deception Over Domination 🪄
Barco’s fastball plays better than the radar gun suggests. Sitting 93–94 mph and touching 96, the pitch generates swing-and-miss rates above average for left-handers despite relatively modest velocity.
Brooks Baseball notes heavy sink with slight arm-side run, paired with a very low slot that creates a difficult approach angle. Hitters struggle to square it up, reflected in suppressed hard contact and an ability to live in the zone without getting punished. He gave up just 5 HR last year across 102.1 innings.
Completing His Set of Tools 🛠️
Fastball command is Barco’s foundation. In 2025, he filled the zone with his heater 50+ percent of the time, allowing him to work ahead and avoid free passes.
The secondary command remains the swing factor. His slider and splitter both generate whiffs, but strike rates lag behind the fastball, especially as outings stretch. In the minors, that translated to solid strikeout totals but occasional trouble once pitch counts climbed.
The question for 2026 is whether his delivery stays synced deep enough into games to turn a lineup over twice with consistency. He needs a strong slider to thrive in Pittsburgh's rotation.
The Splitter as a Ceiling Pitch 🔻
Ultimately, the key to Barco’s future success is his split-fingered fastball. Thrown in the mid-80s with late dive and subtle cut, it produces chase and weak contact against right-handed hitters.
When it’s on, the splitter can be a true bat-misser -- a perplexing knee-buckler that leverages the rest of his arsenal. Strikeouts rise, balls in play dribble, and the case for starter becomes much easier to make. It is the pitch to watch this spring, and why I'm so bullish on him.
Bottom Line 📌
Barco is currently the only left-handed starter on the 40-man roster. If the fastball deception holds and the splitter continues to miss bats at the top level, average secondary command is enough to support a back-end starter who absorbs innings and keeps games playable. Not a crafty lefty profile - something even better.
Though he is likely to open 2026 with the AAA Indians, the path back to Pittsburgh is short once needs arise. He’s a rotation lock by the end of the year.
The Hunter Barco era is soon to begin. Prepare yourself.
Note: This is an extended look at the predicted Pirates 26-man running through the end of January. Check out the whole series on my profile and like/share for visibility. Thanks!
@bbarco7
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Series Announcement & The End of the Experiment
Tomorrow marks 53 more days until the last day of the year. And it turns out that the Pirates had 53 players in 2026 log at least one inning with the major league club.
Starting tomorrow, I will count down until the end of the year by looking backwards and forwards at each player in alphabetical order -- I’m calling it “The Pirates: A-to-Z.” We kick off tomorrow with Braxton Ashcraft.
This will also mark the end of my yearlong experiment. With the exception of the recent series with guest writers, I’ve authored one 800-900 word column every morning since January 1. I pledged to do it through the end of the year, and the series that starts tomorrow will be my final one under this challenge.
In the new year, I will continue writing but I’ve decided to forgo it as a daily thing. Sometimes life gets in the way and I change around my day to accommodate this, and that’s a little too much to be sustainable. I’m thinking every 2-3 days in the offseason, and then more frequently in-season.
I have time to change my mind, but that’s where I’m at right now. Also plenty of time to eulogize what this platform has meant to me. For now, one more series to see this through.
A huge thank you to everyone who reads, likes and shares. You mean the absolute world to me.
#LetsGoBucs
Lonnie White Jr. Is Back From the Dead
After a couple seasons of looking like a complete bust, Lonnie White Jr. is suddenly back on the prospect radar. And not just a little bit. He's gone from a guy we'd all but written off to someone who might actually contribute in Pittsburgh in 2027.
Talk about an unlikely opening paragraph. White was about as far from prospect status as you could get, having weathered a tumultuous couple seasons repeating the A+ level. But the lightbulb turned on this past season, and after (finally) dominating in Greensboro, he went on to AA Altoona and had a breakout season.
As we contemplate how to fill roles on the field should anyone go down in 2027, White should probably be on a shortlist of guys who deserve a shot.
This Was Not Expected
Before the 2026 season, folks were most familiar with White as a part of the upside talent acquired when Hank Davis was selected as an underslot #1 in 2021. White was taken as the CB-B selection eight picks ahead of Bubba Chandler. Injuries kept him off the field until 2023 when he looked pretty good between rookie ball and Bradenton,
But that’s when the troubles started. When I say that White was off the prospect map, I mean utterly and completely. In 2024, he put up a .167/.275/.340 performance in 375 PA at Greensboro. It might have been thought of as an aberration, except that he wasn’t much better the next season in 2025 with a .723 OPS.
Once a fixture of Pirates Top-30 lists, he fell off by the end of 2025. I frankly had forgotten about him as he set out to repeat A+ for the third time in 2026.
Who is This Guy?
It’s easy to forget that, as arduous a time as he had since being drafted in 2021, White was still just 23 years old at the start of the 2026 season. But given his narrative, it was a “put up or shut up” season for him. And the dude absolutely rose to the occasion.
White looked like a completely different hitter to start the season, with a .298/.413/.595 line with 7 HR in just 104 PA that got him promoted to AA Altoona. And after an adjustment period there, he started raking again, putting up an .866 OPS with another 19 HR.
While there is some swing-and-miss in his profile (a 29.6% K-rate that is just barely acceptable), he complements his bat with speed on the base paths (21 SB) and above-average defense at all three outfield positions.
A Look to 2027
White will likely start at AAA alongside Gray. Also in Indy will likely be Jhostynxon Garcia, a player with a similar profile and capability of playing all outfield positions. Both he and White will be watching the outfield in Pittsburgh closely as Esmerlyn Valdez returns to pair with Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds in the Bucco outfield.
Valdez’s incredible summer with the Pirates in 2026 won him the starting RF role and cemented him in the cleanup spot leading up to his injury near the end of the season. The news is that he is completely repaired and looking forward to his first full season in 2027.
But we all remember what a difficult August Valdez had, with no power and a ton of strikeouts. If he comes back to start 2027 with similar production, one of these two may get a shot.
The Bottom Line
It’s awesome to have real outfield depth in AAA, and depending on when the MLB season starts, we’ll have additional data as Garcia and White will start up their 2027 minor league seasons this spring.
No one expected White to be challenging for a role with the major league club, not after his disappearing act in 2024 and 2025. He’s back on BA’s Top-30 list at #29 -- a very difficult feat once you get excommunicated.
I find myself pulling for him as an unlikely prospect. Rooting for the underdog is kind of my thing. I mean, of course it is. I’m a Pirates fan.
#LetsGoBucs
Murf Gray is an X Factor
Under any other circumstances, Murf Gray’s 2026 season would have been the year’s biggest development.
Coming on the heels of Konnor Griffin’s meteoric rise and during a year where the Pirates were actually competing allowed his development to fly under the radar. But make no mistake -- it’s a really big deal.
It isn’t every year that a prospect moves through three levels, dominating at every stop en route to a 32 HR season. Gray’s .305/.402/.567 line across roughly equal time at A, A+ and AA is one of the best offensive performances of the year in the minor leagues.
So why aren’t more people freaking out about him?
No Respect
MLB Pipeline ranks Gray at #89 in its Top-100, with him entering the list in mid-July. But on the Baseball America side, he has yet to break the big board, settling for #4 in the Pirates system behind recently-drafted Derek Curiel (who has yet to play a single inning in the minors).
I don’t get it, personally. Gray is still just 22 years old and won’t turn 23 until December 30. It took him a bit to get settled at AA, but dominated in his final 28 games with a .297/.388/.515 line over his last 121 PA with an acceptable 20.6% K rate.
We talk about AA being the dividing line? Well, here he is folks. That’s a .900+ OPS. And get this -- he hit RHP better than LHP, with a .997 OPS against righties across the three levels with an .868 OPS against lefties.
What’s a guy got to do to get the national media to pay any attention?
Really, Defense? That’s the Concern?
The oft-repeated criticism on him by arm-chair X users is that his defense is perceived as sub-standard. And really, everyone is just repeating the same 1-2 lines some mercenary blogger got paid $50 to write up for BA.
I saw him play 3B in person this past season and watched several games via MiLB -- his defense certainly didn’t stand out as awful. He’s a big guy who maybe doesn’t move laterally as well as he could, but he makes the routine plays just fine.
So, can he stick at third? He got 94 starts at the hot corner across three levels, and he finished with a .950 fielding percentage. He made six of his 12 errors in just 35 games at AA which is a little concerning, but I think we can also point at the overall adjustment that level requires. I’m not all that concerned.
Looking Ahead to the Future
All that said, I’ve come around on the idea that better defense needs to be a goal for the Pirates as they improve run prevention. I’ve advocated for KBO slugger Si Hwan Roh as a 3B target in part because he offers GG-quality defense coupled with the potential for strong offense.
I could also be happy with Gray at 3B and Nick Gonzales moving back to 2B, especially with KG playing above-average defense at SS between them. But I’ve warmed to the idea that Gray is really Ryan O’Hearn’s heir apparent -- a 3B/1B/DH who gets in the lineup every night but isn’t the everyday 3B.
As Flores showed over the final few weeks, there is a role for a RH hitter to pair with Spencer Horowitz at 1B. With O’Hearns departure, one could imagine a DH share between Flores and Gray that could be very effective, it’s what I dreamed about for Hank Davis and Endy Rodriguez,
And of course, Roh and Gray on the same Pirates squad would also mean being able to move on from Jared Triolo. Cue the marching band.
The Bottom Line 📌
If 2027 was a regular year, Gray would still likely need to start at AAA, meaning the Pirates would be without a starting 3B to begin the year. But with the lockout likely to extend into June or later, Gray may in fact be ready for “opening day” sometime next summer.
The 2025 draft, which brought us both Seth Hernandez and Gray as 1A and 1B in the first round, may end up being a crowning achievement of the Cherington era, which is saying a lot after the 1-2 punch of Paul Skenes and Griffin.
We will find out next year either way.
#LetsGoBucs
