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Frequent and disappointed attendee of El Farol bar

El Farol Bar
Joined December 2020
Photo by Theory Trading (@TheoryTrading)Photo by Theory Trading (@TheoryTrading)Photo by Theory Trading (@TheoryTrading)Photo by Theory Trading (@TheoryTrading)Photo by Theory Trading (@TheoryTrading)Photo by Theory Trading (@TheoryTrading)Photo by Theory Trading (@TheoryTrading)Photo by Theory Trading (@TheoryTrading)Photo by Theory Trading (@TheoryTrading)Photo by Theory Trading (@TheoryTrading)
Welcome to the Gilded era of small caps. $PCLA $ADTX $MTVA $FRGT $LFS $MRM
🤖 Made with AI
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Cyclicality pre 2026: Shorts lose on swan/squeezer -> Money transferred to retail chasers -> Longs chase junk stocks -> shorts “get it back” on exaggerated range + longs bagged -> reset = healthy cycle Cyclicality in 2026: Market dead -> shorts blown out on China rig -> China riggers go to Macau to gamble your money away -> Market dead/no locates -> repeat. Are you enjoying “adapting” and addressing your “skill issues” this year? $OMH $HUHU $BDMD $YMAT $IWM
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The only solution to avoiding this extinction-level period for HTB shorts is for manipulators to start pumping “thicker” small cap floats > 10M. This was very much a thing in the Covid era due to high organic chaser volume, ie for the rigger it was much easier to move larger mcap stocks with the help of chaser longs. We now know those longs have left the arena. What’s left is riggers vs shorts and the easiest stuff to pump and trap is nanofloats. No synthetic locates, so a 2-3 big players can easily locate most of the available float leaving you with nothing to short daily. Pray some regulations are coming that will force them to run up larger floats. Otherwise, you should have been planning your exit from this edge eroded game a while ago. $RUBI $OMH $MI $SMX $HUHU $PEPG
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Small cap patterns before 2026: bounce short, gap up short, first red day, super para, max dollar block, day 2 overextended gap down, etc Small cap patterns in 2026: martingale and hold through. You just have skill issues and don’t study. $OMH $LABT $ZNB $ELPW
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October 2026 was one of the slowest months in small caps since 2022. Record low trade count for me. How did you do? $SLGB $BURU $SPY $IWM
14%Very Red
28%Red
39%Green
19%Very Green
214 votes • Final results
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Nice to see that small caps are back like everyone said after $AIOK ran 90% in a day. Two 30% gappers. Incredible action! $INLF $NCPL $PCLA
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Another day/week/month in paradise living the dream. And after paying record locate prices and fees all year, we’ve got some great holiday gifts headed our way! $YMAT $AIXI $SAIQ
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Folks are now paying 50% of the stock price in locates and gambling on the chance it is not a $BIYA. You should have started making contingency plans a while ago. It’s not a cycle. The music has stopped a while ago and you’re still dancing. $RBNE $SHFS
The China cap (small cap) market has evolved into three modes: 1. GM market dead (current) 2. China squeezers that will teleport you 5000% pm or halt auction scam you (early August) 3. Intermediate mode with some plays but accompanied by zero/unreasonable locates (June/July). Pick your poison and enjoy “adapting”. $ARBE $BNC $BJDX $TWG
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$WFF on October 12, 2026: the end of RTH and MDR shorting.
$BIYA on October 7th, 2026: The end of PM shorting.
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$BIYA on October 7th, 2026: The end of PM shorting.
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Morning walk for sunrise instead of spamming for “no locates available” at 4am in spare bedroom. Nice of the Chinese manipulators to kill pm and give us our early mornings back. $BIYA $DKI $FLYE
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Are you stopping all pm short trading? $BIYA $SXTC $PFAI
26%Yes
37%No
10%only china
27%get your own edge bro
108 votes • Final results
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Not a low volume parabolic, non-IPO, had full AH + 4 hours of pm runtime with substantial volume , decent price, not a fresh chart. Can one of the high IQ short bros please explain to me how to approach these going forward without just “holding through” hoping the broker risk team is asleep? $BIYA $SXTC
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Adverse selection is an ever increasing component of edge erosion. “Good play” that fades - no locates, some BP/short prohibited restriction, or absurd locate costs. “Bad play” all day squeezer - plenty of cheap locates and max BP available. El Farol bar is only getting more full by the month $AIXI $IPDN $FRGT $OLOX
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