Things could not be worse for the European industrial outlook.
Natural gas prices are at least ten times higher than in the U.S.
Such pain will lead to political upheaval.
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The Curley Effect may not be the primary driver, but certainly a reinforcing one for the political extremes we see between blue cities and red rural areas.
The Curley Effect is when politicians deliberately pursue policies that may not be in the long-term interests of the citizens, but drives away political opposition and secures a dominant position for the politicians.
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According to recent reports, oil flowing out of the Middle East recently is actually slightly above the prewar level.
The caveat is that the cost of transportation is around $20/barrel higher than before.
But the more significant reason that fuel prices will likely stay high for another year or more is the damage caused by war to refineries, particularly the bombing of the Moscow refinery.
Tim Williams retweeted
🚨🚨 THE DEMOCRACY FILES / ILLEGITIMACY PLAYBOOK, PART 7: THE SECRET MEGA-ALLIANCE WAITING FOR A RED LINE TO BE CROSSED 🚨
What do you call a mega-alliance that:
• Covers hundreds, if not thousands, of protest organizations
• Covers all the lawfare-related organizations
• Liasions with governors when a Constitutional crisis is crossed
• Consults federal workers on how to block emergency efforts
• Runs a situation room for the midterms and beyond
• Is credited to regime change expert and professor Erica Chenoweth
• Is operationalized by National Security Leaders for America, an organization of 1,600 retired officers, spies, and diplomats
• ... and determines the "red lines" for mobilization of the above?
Meet the United Democracy Alliance (UDA).
UDA is the secret alliance behind the messaging we saw this week:
• JB Pritzker's warning that states will "strongly resist"
• Governor Newsom's office declaring a "CODE RED"
• Norm Eisen talking about "war rooms"
• Slotkin predicting a "national security incident"
You will not find any mentions of the United Democracy Alliance (UDA) on the web. It is a mega-alliance of resistance NGOs ready to deploy on a moment's notice, monitoring every action President Trump takes and monitoring every polling place.
We only can put together the pieces by recordings. Some key quotes:
• "if there's a moment where there's a constitutional crisis, like one of the UDA four red lines, if they get crossed… governors then become the kind of lead anchor for political power." (Zeitz, Aug 6)
• "the big, big, big, big, big tent that's being organized in the blocking community so that if there is a red line crossed in terms of a constitutional crisis, like, everybody's already pre-organized." (Reiff, Aug 5)
• "We are also starting to consult federal workers on how to do some blocking inside the govt agencies during emergency situations" (Eric Manton, Zoom chat, Aug 6)
According to @JeffClarkUS , the last point above about federal workers conspiring to block emergency responses may violate serious statutes. More on federal workers involvement in Drop 8.
Compilation of recordings below:
Tim Williams retweeted
You have got to listen to this former Navy seal, and Senator Tim Sheehy give a speech on the Senate floor in July of this year .
He speaks about terrorism and Islam with bravery like no one I have ever heard !
You will CHEER !
Tim Williams retweeted
Few poems describe a gentleman's character better than Kipling's "If—," and few men read it better than Sir Michael Caine.
Have a great Friday.
Incentives drive action. Cost differences drive migration from blue states to red states. The potential loss of political clout and loss of a tax base drives blue states to support legal and illegal immigration. It is existential for the blue states.
State Tax% Gas$ Pop%
CA 13.5 6.06. −0.02
TX 8.6. 3.75. +1.25
NY 15.9 4.40. +0.01
FL 9.1. 4.13. +0.85
IL 12.9 4.81. +0.13
TN 7.6 3.84. +0.8
Tim Williams retweeted
new world order is coming
🚨 I spend an enormous amount of time trying to understand the chaos we're living through. Not the headlines. The machine behind them. 🚨
If you want to understand what Elon Musk is really fighting, and who is really fighting him, this is the clearest map I can give you.
Expensive houses. Expensive schools. Expensive healthcare. Taxes that rise every year while everything gets worse. Borders nobody voted to open. Speech rules nobody voted for.
Most people look at this and blame capitalism. The market failed, they say, so the state has to step in and fix it.
They have it exactly backwards. What they want to fix it with is what broke it. This isn't chaos, and it isn't capitalism. It has a direction, a method, and a hundred-year history. Let me reverse-engineer it.
In 1926, Mussolini's regime threw Antonio Gramsci, co-founder of the Italian Communist Party, into prison. From his cell he asked the question that would shape the next century: why did the revolution win in Russia but fail in the West, where Marx said it was inevitable?
His answer: in Russia, the state was everything, so seizing it was enough. In the West, the state was only the outer wall. Behind it stood the real fortress: the church, the family, the school, the press, the culture. Western workers never revolted because the culture held them.
So the conclusion was simple. Don't storm the palace. Capture the culture. Win the institutions and you never have to win the argument, because you decide which arguments are allowed.
In 1967, the German student leader Rudi Dutschke gave it a slogan: the long march through the institutions. Paris supplied the intellectual software, and I've already apologized for my country's part in that.
Then came the most patient operation in modern history. The students of the 60s became the professors of the 80s. Their students became the journalists, judges, civil servants and HR directors of the 2000s. Their students now run the foundations, the NGOs and the agencies. No single step looked like a revolution. That's exactly why it worked.
The method was communist. The ambition became global. And it grew like a cancer. A cancer never attacks the body head-on. It hijacks the body's own cells and feeds on the body's own resources. This system never had to defeat the West. It just had to make the West pay for it.
In America, the machine found a political home: the Democratic Party. Not the millions of decent people who vote for it. The apparatus. The donor networks, the activist groups, the consultants, the captured agencies that keep moving in the same direction whoever wins.
In Europe, it found something even better. The EU's founders, Schuman, Adenauer, De Gasperi, were Catholic anti-communists who wanted to make war impossible. But they built exactly what the long march dreams of: power that never has to face a voter. A Commission nobody directly elects holds the right to propose laws for 450 million people. Chat Control. The digital euro. Speech rules written in Brussels. Nobody stormed anything. They just drafted it.
Add the World Economic Forum, the UN agencies and the global foundation circuit, and you have the full map. You don't need a secret meeting when everyone went to the same schools, reads the same papers, funds the same NGOs and flies to the same conference in Davos every January. It's not a conspiracy. It's a class with shared incentives. That's harder to fight, because there's no headquarters to raid.
And the billionaires? Most people who became the richest in the world got absorbed. They built something real, then traded it for an aura. Bill Gates is the perfect example: he built the software that ran the world, then became the bankroller of global health bureaucracies and the funder of newsrooms covering his own causes. Laurene Powell Jobs bought The Atlantic. Benioff bought Time. You're not buying a business. You're buying the right to be called good by the people who decide who is good. That's the corruption. Not suitcases of cash. Money for aura, grants for loyalty, NGOs for policy. All legal. All invisible.
Here's the proof it's one system and not a hundred separate problems. Look at what happened to prices over the last 25 years. Everything exposed to markets and technology got cheaper: TVs, software, phones, clothing. Everything controlled by institutions exploded: college, healthcare, childcare. And housing, where you need a committee's permission to build anything. Same country, same economy, same decades. The difference isn't the product. It's who controls it.
Taxes go up and services get worse, because the money doesn't reach the services. It feeds the layers. Immigration happens at a scale no electorate clearly chose, because for a system that lives on managing problems, more problems means more budget. And a two-income family today can't buy the house their parents bought on one salary. That's real poverty, manufactured by a machine that is rewarded for looking good, never for being good.
MAGA isn't the cause of the chaos. It's the immune response. Brexit, the farmers' revolts, the votes shaking every European capital: same thing. The body finally noticed the tumor.
So what we're living through is not a normal political cycle. It's a fight to the death between two models. One runs on the perception of goodness. The other runs on reality.
And it had to be the richest man in the world. Anyone smaller would have been bought, sued or cancelled. Every billionaire before him took the deal. Elon walked out of the club and turned the lights on.
He bought Twitter for $44 billion, opened the Twitter Files and gave the world back a public square where any narrative can be checked in real time. He went inside the government and helped shut down USAID. Now Politico announces that the Democrats' gavels are coming for him. His answer: he'll find out who is really pulling the strings and go after them, not just their puppets.
He has one line he keeps coming back to: he cares about the reality of goodness, not the perception of it. That sentence is the whole war.
Now the part that makes me certain of how it ends.
A lie is expensive to maintain. It needs gatekeepers, censors, fact-checkers, friendly journalists, a budget, and constant repairs every time reality contradicts it. The truth costs nothing to maintain. It just keeps being true.
AI is driving the cost of checking anything toward zero. Any budget, any study, any statistic, any promise, audited in seconds by anyone with a phone. Yes, AI can generate lies at scale too. But producing a lie is cheap. Defending it against a billion instant audits is impossible.
That's what acceleration really means. It doesn't pick sides. It speeds up feedback loops. Systems aligned with reality compound. Systems built on lies hit the wall faster. And you cannot build rockets, design chips or cure diseases with a false model of the world. Physics doesn't read op-eds. The more intelligence we pour into the world, the more expensive every lie becomes.
You cannot scale a lie. You can only scale what's true.
We are close to the collapse of the old order and the birth of a new one. Not the one from the WEF's own 2016 video, "you'll own nothing and you'll be happy." The opposite. An order built on truth-seeking, efficiency, science, private property and free markets. You will own things. You will build things. And you'll be happy, because it will be real.
Gramsci's long march took a century. Its collapse will take years.
History will remember this moment. A man walked into the most powerful machine ever built, refused the deal everyone else took, and chose reality over perception.
I have never been more optimistic.
Canada should try to patch things up with the Trump administration. They will be greatly harmed if they can’t.
Trade with the U.S. represents roughly a third of their GDP, whereas the U.S. trade with Canada represents roughly 2% of America’s GDP.
Europe and China cannot replace this trade on favorable terms.
The human dilemma: to escape the recognition that every standard we use to sort better from worse beliefs is itself applied by creatures whose equipment is limited, biased, and internally conflicted.
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Tim Williams retweeted
CIA Deep State Asset Elissa Slotkin one year ago vs last week:
Every accusation hides their confession.
They are the weaponization of which they warn.





















