Timothy (@TimothyBuffett) header
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The Psychology of Human Misjudgment There are no solutions, only tradeoffs Information without context is falsely empowering

Joined February 2011
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Timothy retweeted
SpaceX doesn’t need the government, the government needs SPCX. Democrats and Elon will be working together. I’m warning you all. This will be reposted. 🚀
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“John D. Rockefeller in his day was smart enough to see oil as what the U.S. was going to run on for a long time into the future, and you could say the same today about semiconductors… Holding a dominant position at the key bottleneck in the chip-manufacturing process should greatly benefit ASML over time.” 🗣️ Dev Kantesaria, ValueInvestor Insight, October 31, 2026 ($ASML)
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Timothy retweeted
Here’s the full interview of @elonmusk with Ron Baron 0:13 - Exciting times ahead 0:21 - First principles and TerraFab 2:18 - Chip fabs geopolitical risk 5:51 - Terawatt scale ambition 6:14 - Trillion dollar phased build 7:36 - Why others don’t improve 7:49 - Austin research fab iteration 10:49 - Culture of speed and ideas 13:48 - Walking the floor hands-on 15:39 - Data centers pitchforks 16:44 - OpenAI origins Anthropic 18:09 - Building data centers fast 20:01 - Revenue exploding Jose meme 23:16 - Model Y best in China 23:28 - China ownership exception 24:50 - ARR to five hundred billion 27:45 - Digital AI economy boost 28:21 - Robotics five times productivity 30:10 - Rent robots not sell 30:41 - Memphis community benefits 32:55 - Data centers in space 33:35 - StarMind and space power 36:26 - Cost to orbit history 36:52 - Falcon nine reusability limits 39:09 - Hourly launches Starship size 40:25 - Chopsticks and heat shield 44:30 - Starship unlocks Starlink 46:49 - Agentic traffic thousand times 48:09 - Starlink V3 bandwidth explosion 51:26 - Spectrum and telcos 52:43 - Satellite replacement cycle 53:17 - Laser links hundred times 53:55 - Competing with China power 55:37 - Space intelligence advantage 57:19 - Demand from superintelligence 58:02 - Universal high income future 1:00:43 - Legacy contribution
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Timothy retweeted
SpaceX will attempt to catch both the Super Heavy booster and Starship on the upcoming flight. If both are successful, it will mark the first time that all parts of an orbital rocket return to Earth intact. This is the critical breakthrough needed to make life multiplanetary.
More than a dozen flight tests and years of development, with countless hours worked by SpaceX engineers and technicians, all come down to this: the first orbital Starship launch carrying advanced Starlink satellites bound for space. Watch “Go For Orbit” and experience the moments behind flying the most ambitious Starship mission yet
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Timothy retweeted
In 200 b.c. the Qin Dynasty unified China for the first time and wanted to create a new world. They burned books from conquered states and other schools of thought to erase inconvenient history. Status quo doesn't benefit from widespread knowledge. Knowledge threatens the state of things because the more people know and the more they think, the more they can come up with ways to change things. And change is unforgivable from an Orwellian perspective. It's why Ignorance is Strength and why you either fully buy into the new reality or get your soul crashed until you don't know what reality means. What's so unique about our world is that all knowledge and compute is at the tip of our fingers, yet no one reads anymore. There's multiple records of every piece of data, landscape, person, and nobody thinks about it. The wave of information we live in is akin to a place without it. So many news that the important ones go unnoticed. So much freedom on paper that we don't think if we are really free. I think I read in the prologue of Fahrenheit 451 that you don't have to burn books in a world of non-readers, a world of non-knowers. In Bradbury's world, firemen are not hired with a top-down mandate to burn books. Firemen are a bottom-up demand. They are meant to keep people in the state of things they deliberately chose.
Starting to really understand why a core theme of dystopian novels is that nobody reads
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Timothy retweeted
Exactly 😂 Tesla has no government contracts and President Trump ended federal incentives for electric vehicles. SpaceX contracts with the government are BOTH the best product AND the lowest price! Moreover government revenue will be less than 10% of SpaceX revenue this quarter and less then 5% a year from now. Happy to cancel any that the government doesn’t want. Just say the word!
Elon please send this January 1: Dear Senate & House Democrats, Many of you criticize my companies receiving federal contracts. I hereby offer to cancel. Please publish a list of each contract to cancel with any required agency consent, and we will cancel promptly. Sincerely, Elon Musk
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Kilauea is erupting again. This lava fountain started at 12:10 this afternoon Hawaii time, and these fountains usually climb 500 to 1,500 feet high within an hour or two. Video: USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
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Aldous Huxley, timeless banger
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Timothy retweeted
Joe Rogan warns Texas conservative leadership that THC ban will lose them young voters and turn state Blue: “The THC thing. Here's what Texas doesn't understand. You will fuck this place up, and you will turn the whole thing blue. The kids will turn on you. If you tell them they can't smoke weed. They know weed's not killing anybody.”
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NEW 🚨 Why Did America Stop Building Airports? Sky Harbour CEO Tal Keinan on the AI Wealth Wave, Private Jet Boom & Solving the Hangar Shortage @JTLonsdale sits down with Sky Harbour ($SKYH) CEO Tal Keinan They cover:  - How did USA build thousands of airports in the 1930s and 40s? - Why did we stop building new airports? - The AI wealth wave and private jet boom - How Tal pioneered the home-based operator model - How Sky Harbour uses AI to pinpoint new locations and customers (00:00) Episode intro (01:45) Eighteen years as an F-16 pilot (04:00) Clarity Capital and Israel's tech explosion (08:16) “Nowhere to park it” / Why did America stop building airports? (10:40) Why general aviation airports don't make money (13:15) The FBO duopoly & why they love NetJets (16:05) How Tal created the home-based operator model (19:10) How the Sky Harbour business model works (24:50) How Tal uses AI to scout customers and locations (27:09) The AI wealth wave & private aviation boom
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That's pretty wild... "everyone in the US transacts with a Square seller every year" Then you have Neighborhoods... which if the value add in Neighborhoods is even remotely reasonable to buyers, then they can seriously increase the pie here for Square and Cash App. $XYZ
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Charlie Munger tells the story of an actor who once said: “I’ve been a great actor for so long that I’ve stopped knowing what I truly think about any subject.” Then Munger says: “Politicians are like that.” $djco
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Timothy retweeted
Dems went from “SpaceX and Starlink are impossible and Elon’s a rube” to “they only work bc of subsidies and would fail otherwise” to “they are so critical to the USA we must be authoritarian and seize them” in a decade.
"SpaceX isn’t a tech company. It’s an aerospace and communications company. It is vital to America’s national security and it must be brought to heel and aligned with America’s interests." lnk.thebulwark.com/3We7Trq
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Make money. Act broke. Be unknown.
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🌌 What stands out after reading Mark Leonard's letters to $CSU.TO shareholders isn't the numbers. It's the culture he spelled out, in his own words, year after year. 1️⃣ "We trust our managers and employees and hence try to encumber them with as little bureaucracy as possible." (2011 letter) → Decentralization isn't a slogan there. It's how the company is built. Decisions are made by the people closest to the customers and the business, not by a distant head office. That keeps each business nimble, keeps overhead low, and develops managers who think and act like owners. As the company grows, it adds more small, accountable businesses instead of more layers of bureaucracy. 2️⃣ "We nearly always promote from within because mutual trust and loyalty take years to build…" (2011 letter) → They treat culture as something compounded over years, not hired in. 3️⃣ "We incent managers and employees with shares (escrowed for 3-5 years) so that they are economically aligned they are economically aligned with shareholders." (2011 letter) → This is a different kind of alignment than stock options. Options reward a higher share price by a certain date, which can tempt managers to do what looks right in the short term, like taking on debt to buy back shares at full multiples, sometimes at the expense of long-term value. Owning real shares that are locked up for years means managers share both the upside and the downside, just like shareholders. They think like owners because they are owners. 4️⃣ "It takes lots of time and effort to attract and educate competent shareholder/partners. The last thing we want them to do, is sell." (2013 letter) → As James Allen wrote, "Men do not attract that which they want, but that which they are." Constellation doesn't just hope for patient, long-term shareholders. It earns them by being a patient, long-term company and by teaching owners how it thinks. Great companies tend to attract the shareholders they deserve. 5️⃣ "This year I'll take no salary, no incentive compensation, and I am no longer charging any expenses to the company… In essence, I'm your partner in CSI, not your employee." (2014 letter) → How many founders have done that? Speaks for itself on many levels. 6️⃣ "I've traditionally travelled on economy tickets and stayed at modest hotels because I wasn't happy freeloading on the CSI shareholders…" (2014 letter) → Being disciplined about the small stuff says a lot. It usually means discipline isn't a choice but a habit. A leader who won't waste a few hundred dollars of shareholder money on a hotel room is far less likely to waste millions on a bad acquisition. How you handle the little decisions tends to show how you’ll handle the big ones. 7️⃣ "Said another way, when we dropped our hurdle rate, it dragged down the expected IRR's for all the opportunities that we subsequently pursued, not just those at the margin." (2015 letter) → Being candid about their own past decisions is how discipline lasts. 8️⃣ "Lots of investors seek businesses with those characteristics, but great owners are rare. Far too many owners mistake themselves for great operators." (April 2018 letter) → Humility about the owner's role. 🌌 When Leonard stepped down for health reasons in Sept 2025, he handed the role to Mark Miller, whom he called "a trusted adviser… for over thirty years. That choice says a lot. Miller co-founded Trapeze Group in 1988, and in 1995 it became Constellation's very first acquisition. He has spent 30+ years inside the system, first as an operator of an acquired business and then helping build and run it. Leonard founded Constellation, and Miller helped shape its DNA from early on. The successor wasn't an outside hire learning the culture. He's one of the people who built it. The culture was built to outlast its founder. In my view, all of these things make this a team and culture worth trusting.
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Carl Icahn held ~45.8M shares of $AAPL at the end of 2015. He sold his entire position in 2016. Had he simply held those shares, they'd be worth $63B today - more than 17x the current market cap of Icahn Enterprises.
Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine owned ~9.2M shares of $MA in 2008. Since then, the fund has fully exited and re-entered the position six times. Had it simply held those original shares, they'd be worth ~$5.9B today — more than 1/3 of the entire fund. Source: Dataroma
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Timothy retweeted
Tesla and SpaceX have created meaningful wealth for hundreds of thousands of employees over time and improved the retirement savings of hundreds of millions of people
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Timothy retweeted
This is actually true
Once you understand the incentive, the reason for the behavior becomes obvious: they are importing a left-voting bloc that depends on government handouts. A prominent example of this in America is Ilhan Omar and her Somali voting bloc in Minnesota, an area which used to be primarily Nordic-German. Importing voters is a CERTAIN path to a single-party supermajority and has ALREADY happened at the state level in California and New York. It also explains why those states have BANNED VOTER ID in order to accelerate a permanent socialist supermajority, destroying any semblance of democracy. We stand on the precipice of disaster, an end to America.
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Timothy retweeted
Four years ago … And that is exactly what happened
In the past I voted Democrat, because they were (mostly) the kindness party. But they have become the party of division & hate, so I can no longer support them and will vote Republican. Now, watch their dirty tricks campaign against me unfold … 🍿
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