🦷 The Smile Investor

I spend a lot of time telling people to buy index funds. I also pick individual stocks. Those two things aren’t contradictory. My ETFs are the foundation of my portfolio. But if I’m going to take the additional risk of owning an individual company, I have one expectation: It needs to outperform the S&P 500. Otherwise, why am I doing the extra work? I’ve had some good ones: $PLTR at $10, +1,582% $META at $95, 615% $LRCX at $61, +345% $SHOP at $29, +336% $CRWD at $64, +283% $PANW at $149, +152% $NBIS at $88, +150% $ASML at $690, +136% I’ve had misses too. And I’ll have more. That’s stock picking. But there are 5 companies I own today that I believe can outperform the S&P 500 between now and 2030. Here’s my thesis on each, and what could make me wrong. 🧵

One of the hardest things about investing is knowing when to leave something alone. There’s always another stock to research, another headline to react to, another reason to make a trade. But I’ve learned that being involved doesn’t always mean being productive. Sometimes the best thing you can do for your portfolio is absolutely nothing. Boring? Sure. But boring has made me a lot of money over the years.

Quiet Sunday rule I am keeping. No portfolio checking until 7pm. No practice email until 7pm. Coffee first. Family first. The numbers will be there Monday and they will not miss me. Rest is not falling behind. Rest is how I show up better tomorrow. What is your Sunday rule?

Somewhere tonight, there’s a guy who checks his investment account twice a year. Once in January. Once in July. He doesn’t know what his stocks did this past week, and he doesn’t care. That sounds peaceful.

Well @Topps I spent the money on the hobby box for the 2026-27 Flagship collection. This is the best you offered in this particular hobby box. Not a single autograph or relic. I promise my son and I aren’t disappointed at all. 😒 At least I could submit the issue. Although I shouldn’t have to. Hopefully Chrome is better. @CardPurchaser

They call them the Magnificent 7 like they move together. They do not. Apple $AAPL is up 26 percent this year. Tesla $TSLA is down 20 percent. Same seven stocks, 46 points apart. Nvidia $NVDA is basically flat. I do not have to guess which one of the seven wins the year. I own the basket and let them sort it out. I'd still buy $META individually. Its advertising business generates enormous cash flow, its platforms reach billions of people, and AI is making its core business more effective. The scale of its existing business, its competitive advantages, and the opportunities AI creates are what keep me bullish, even with the enormous capital spending ahead.

Weekly buys in to strong ETFs like $VOO $VGT $SCHD. That’s a recipe for success.

You can’t prevent every difficult thing from happening. But you can refuse to let a difficult thing happen without learning from it.

One of the best things about getting older is realizing how many times you’ve already figured things out. Problems that once seemed impossible are now stories you tell. Decisions that terrified you eventually became turning points. And things you thought you’d never recover from barely cross your mind anymore. Whatever you’re facing today, remember: You’ve done difficult things before. There’s a pretty good chance you’ll figure this one out too.

Somewhere tonight, there’s a guy who bought $VOO ten years ago because his coworker told him it was a good idea. He doesn’t know what a P/E ratio is. He’s never listened to an earnings call. He couldn’t name five companies in the S&P 500. He’s probably done better than most of us who spend hours researching stocks. I hope he’s sleeping well.

Every Friday after my last patient leaves… I sit in the same chair. The office is finally quiet. Today was a really tough day. My partner had to take off unexpectedly, and I absorbed a patient schedule that was honestly too much for one doctor. The families were wonderful. Patient and understanding. But I’m not thinking about work right now. Today, both of my kids’ schools went into lockdown because of a reported threat of violence. We still don’t have a lot of clarity about what happened. But my kids are scared. And I’m so fucking angry. I’m angry that this is something our children have to experience. I’m angry that we keep hearing about threats and violence in schools, sometimes only after something terrible has already happened. And I’m heartbroken that my own kids are growing up having to worry about whether they’re safe in a classroom. I was a freshman in high school when Columbine happened in 1999. I remember it. I remember how shocking it was. I never imagined that more than 25 years later, my own children would be sitting in locked-down schools, afraid of what might happen. At my dental practice, we review our active pew pew policy every quarter. We discuss what to do. How to protect our patients. How to protect our staff. Think about that for a second. I run a pediatric dental office. We take care of children. And part of my responsibility is preparing my team for the possibility that someone might walk through our doors intending to hurt them. I shouldn’t have to do that. But here we are. And now my own children are dealing with that same fear at school. I don’t have some profound lesson to share today. I don’t have a solution. I’m just tired of this. Tired of hearing about it. Tired of wondering when the next threat will come. And really, really sad that this is the world our children are growing up in. I spend my days trying to make kids feel safe in my office. Today, I just want to go home and make my own kids feel safe. I wish I could promise them that nothing like this will ever happen again. But I can’t. I just want my kids to feel safe. I wish that wasn’t so much to ask.

My week in three lines. Markets: Survived the Great AI-nihilation of 2026. Bought the dip and kept investing. Practice: Another week balancing patient demand, staffing constraints, and trying to keep everyone happy. Me: Put more $VOO, $VGT, and $SCHD into my kids' Roth IRAs. That is the whole report. No drama needed. How would you sum up your week in three lines?

Well, it appears we've survived the Great AI-nihilation of 2026. Yesterday, Wall Street discovered that Democrats winning the midterms might mean tighter AI regulations and slower data center construction. Naturally, that meant the entire AI revolution was dead, every semiconductor company was doomed, and civilization was hanging by a thread. This morning, tech futures are bouncing and apparently capitalism has been saved. A truly inspiring comeback for the human race. Happy Friday, everyone. 😂

When was the last time you were congratulated for buying stocks?

Somewhere tonight, there’s a guy who sold a stock at a loss, accepted that he was wrong, and moved on with his life. He probably hasn’t thought about it since. Meanwhile, I still occasionally check the price of stocks I sold three years ago just to see whether I was right. Apparently, I need closure from publicly traded companies.

Bought some $VOO, $VGT, and $SCHD in my kids’ Roth IRAs today. They’re young enough that they probably won’t appreciate these purchases for another 20 or 30 years. And that’s perfectly fine with me. I’m not trying to make them rich tomorrow. I’m giving their money something mine can never have again. A few extra decades to compound.

Learning to sell a winner...still working on it. My hardest investing problem is not buying. I can buy through a bad week. I can hold through bad news. Taking a profit still feels strange, like I am quitting on something that worked. This next year I am working on a simple question: "What is this money actually for?" If I can answer that, selling gets easier. Just recently I sold my position in $NOW for a +68% gain. It was enough to pay for my next vacation. Do you struggle more with buying, holding, or selling?

Average ETF Investor: Dave is having a perfectly normal Thursday.

I spent years learning how to buy and hold. Selling is still the part I am working on. @DeepValueBagger posted a guide this week on not round tripping your portfolio. Accept you missed the top. Have a plan to take some off the table. Find the next thing instead of staring at the thing that already ran. That is the part I keep coming back to. Knowing when enough is enough is not quitting. It is turning a paper gain into something real. I owned $CPNG for nearly five years before finally selling at a loss. Five years of patience. Five years of believing the investment would eventually work out. And ultimately, I had to accept that holding longer wasn't necessarily the right decision. There's a difference between patience and stubbornness. Knowing when to sell is every bit as important as knowing what to buy.

We're only at a 20 with the mother of all daily red candles?!