Tobias James Reily 🐂 (Orbitalnewt)

𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗢𝗻 𝗦𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘀, 𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴, 𝗡𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗼 𝗥𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 & 𝗖𝗣𝗜 𝗔𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱: 🔵 Good evening folks, happy Monday, hope everyone's doing well. A little update from me covering portfolio news, crypto and CPI and whatnot. I won't do a full TA post today, as I'm just watching for risk on outperformance and don't have much new to add. But I will briefly mention TOTAL2 and RTY/SPX. I'm looking to see if the crypto markets have bottomed or are still in the process of doing so. $RTY has had a good bounce back today, which is nice to see, with small caps up around 3.62%. Also, it's very reassuring to see a Higher Probability Low print four days ago at the turning point for RTY/SPX, which measures small cap riskier stocks against large caps in the $SPX500 . We haven't had one print on the weekly since June 2024! We are now in our fourth day of outperformance, and we look at this because it acts as a good proxy for seeing the market move down the risk curve. This can predate moves in the crypto market, which is another reason I think this wave 2 in crypto could be finishing. Hopefully we can see that strength continue in RTY. TOTAL2 is also testing the lower Gaussian band and has shown some evidence of reversing trend there in April 2025. 🔵 We have US CPI data tomorrow, with analysts generally expecting around 0.3% MoM for headline inflation and 0.2% for core. I'm not sure we'll get the year on year figures because of the government shutdown last October, when they didn't collect the data. So really we're looking for 0.1% MoM or even 0.2%, which some banks are expecting. I hope we can get a colder result, and we'll see how markets react. We also have PPI on Friday, so quite an important week for inflation data. 🔵 Nintendo has done really well in the Tokyo session today, finishing up around 5.2%, with our $NTDOY (Nintendo CO Ltd-ADR) holding also seeing a nice move of around 3.7%. I think the market will start to catch on to just how popular the Zelda Ocarina of Time remake has proven to be. It's already had the second biggest physical Zelda launch ever in the UK, selling 35% more copies in its opening week than Breath of the Wild did back in 2017. That's a really impressive start, and I think there's a lot of revenue potential here, especially with the Zelda film coming in 2027 too. There's also some interesting speculation about a potential Switch 2 Lite, following reports of a new Samsung chip process that could allow for a smaller and more power efficient console. Nothing confirmed, and Digital Foundry has raised doubts about the rumours, but it's something worth keeping an eye on as a cheaper handheld could potentially open up another market for Nintendo. I confidently hold Nintendo as my top stock holding, as I think it can go much higher over the coming years. 🔵 Elsewhere in the portfolio, $ADBE (Adobe Systems Inc) and $DIS (Walt Disney) announced a new multiyear AI partnership today, with Adobe developing customised AI tools for Disney's theme parks, studios and ESPN. Quite an interesting development as I hold both companies, and it'll be interesting to see how much value AI can bring to Disney's operations over time. 🔵 A little news about $SAN.PA (Sanofi) too, as its biotech partner Adagene announced today that it has completed enrolment in a Phase 2 colorectal cancer trial, triggering the next $8 million instalment of Sanofi's investment. Still early days, but nice to see some progress being made with the partnership. 🔵 That's about it from me today folks. I'll be watching tomorrow's inflation data closely and hoping we can see some more sustained strength across risk assets, particularly the smaller caps and crypto. Have a good evening everyone! Disclaimer: These are just my personal views and portfolio updates, not financial advice. I hold some of the assets mentioned. Always do your own research, as investing involves risk. #StockMarket #Crypto #Nintendo #CPI #Investing #MarketUpdate

𝗠𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝗰𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗶𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝗮𝗱...𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻. 𝗬𝗼𝘂'𝗿𝗲 𝗴𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝘄𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀. We seem to hit a sentiment low point, after a long waddling of price action, whereupon the crowd begins to give up. They begin to convince themselves that the past won't repeat. I've lived through it a few times now. The first time was fascinating. Let's look at an individual cryptocurrency first. XRP hit an almighty high of $3.40 in early 2018, and then proceeded to collapse for a long time. When C19 came a long, XRP dropped to 11 cents in 2020. Now I remember the sentiment, and it could have convinced your inconvincible Uncle that XRP and crypto as a whole was going to zero and had no future. This sentiment has a sort of snowball effect, where it pushes price down and down further because people capitulate one by one, and selling pressure overwhelms buying pressure. It quickly reversed course from there, V bottoming upon myriads of quantitative easing. It managed to reach a high of around $2 at it's cycle peak there, but many were frustrated with it compared to other coins. Most people didn't buy the bottom, most people bought it much higher and rode it back down again. The frustrations again piled up. XRP, and the rest of the crypto market once again fell away from the glorious excitement and euphoria and into the depths of despair again. For many years, the "crypto goes to zero" crew adopted more members. Prices fell, and fell. Until, the narrative came in to then send them much higher whilst people stared in disbelief because once again they DID NOT buy the lows! Trump and his cronies promised clarity and it was the first time that major altcoins had ever really been mentioned by a major politician. Prices ran up, and fell back down again. Here we seem to be again, in the depths of despair. Although, XRP itself this time has held up rather well amidst it all. It has certainly held up much better than most altcoins. There's reasons for that, but I don't have enough characters to go into the world-changing potential that it has. So here we find ourselves. Mid-terms have come and gone, and the crowd becomes uncertain if it will stall progress. But significant progress has been made. ETF's for the long term, tokenisation of the world, instant payments on-rail rather than on snail-mail. Systems made for stablecoin swaps, AI agents on chain. The entire world changing before our eyes. The crowd perhaps doesn't understand that the U.S.A is just one country, and that crypto progress is unstoppable because necessity is the mother of invention. I don't intend for this post to read like I'm an arrogant crystal ball wielder who knows for certain what happens. I think it's hard to know what individual cryptocurrencies will do well, but I think it's quite obvious that crypto as a whole will be much higher in market cap in the coming years. I think the past will repeat, and that most people have been convinced YET AGAIN that it won't. Many people had negative viewpoints like today back in 2019 and 2022. The sentiment can convince you to sell, but it's the range in which maximum gains can be made. The majority of people buy far higher. This has been studied, in all market parabolas. The majority buys into MORE risk and LESS profits than if they had bought the lows. Don't be one of those in the busy queue. Enter at lows, with what you can afford to lose, invest responsibly according to your own risk profile, and enjoy greater rewards than the next person who deems the investment safer because it is in an uptrend. It's not. The higher it goes, the more risky it is. I bought Zcash at $20 and believe me the whole world had written it off as dead. There was no narrative for privacy, people believed Governments would shut it all down. I wish I could transport you right now into that very sentiment at $20. You would laugh yourself silly if someone told you it would hit $1694. But it did. Let it serve as a lesson that even in the depths of a bad narrative, or horrendous sentiment, things can turn around very quickly. Could I be completely wrong? Sure, but if you want the big gains you have to have a little belief, and experience enough to not be put off by negative sentiment. Disclaimer: These are my personal opinions and not financial advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and speculative investments. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Always conduct your own research and invest according to your personal risk tolerance. #Crypto #Altcoins #XRP #Zcash #Investing #CryptoMarket

𝗜'𝗺 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗱𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲, specifically the two largest stablecoins by market cap as a percentage of the overall crypto market. On the left in 2022, you can see dominance reached its highs when crypto was in the depths of its bear market, and that's fairly obvious because when fear is high and markets are falling, money tends to sit in stablecoins as a place of relative safety. I've run a Fibonacci retracement from those 2022 highs, and you can see we had two touches, highlighted by the orange circles, where dominance retraced into the region between the 0.236 and 0.382 levels before rolling over and crypto markets started surging again. The question is, three years later, can we get that breakdown again? We've had just one move up into that same region so far, so it might not be imminent and could take many more months to play out. But I do think if dominance continues to be rejected around this same area, it's starting to mirror previous price action. Especially as we're coming off what I believe were the lows for crypto back in June. I do think the crypto market has bottomed, and the place to be looking now is upwards. In terms of the percentage declines, you can see the 2022 move was considerably deeper, but that makes sense because dominance had climbed so much higher. We were also coming off that huge blow off top in crypto in 2021, which, if you all remember, was completely euphoric and nothing like our rather apathetic 2025 top. So this 32.85% drop in stablecoin dominance could well have marked our low before a retracement, BEFORE the much bigger decline I'm anticipating, in my opinion. How long that bigger drop takes is difficult to pinpoint, and I certainly wouldn't rule out more sideways movement or further tests of resistance first. But every day that passes brings us a little closer to finding out! I also think it hasn't dropped as deeply as before due to the various regulations and growing rewards to attract people to park in stablecoins. A bit tentative, this analysis. You know me, I'm not saying anything for definite, but I do think there is a lot of rhyming in the psychological patterns of financial markets. And looking at how closely some of these levels are lining up three years later, I wouldn't be at all surprised if crypto rallied strongly from here for many weeks, with stablecoin dominance falling as investors move back into riskier assets. $BTC $ETH $CRCL $NSDQ100 $XRP Disclaimer: This is my own technical analysis and interpretation of historical market patterns, not financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and markets rarely follow the same path twice. Always do your own research. #Crypto #Bitcoin #Altcoins #Stablecoins #USDT #USDC #CryptoMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #BullMarket #Investing

𝗢𝗵 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘆 𝗡𝗮𝘀𝗱𝗮𝗾 𝗳𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘀! ...And crypto...but a juicier fall today in the tech sector! I won't patronise you though. The age old repeated post of "Don't panic." There's no need to tell you that, as you already know that volatility is simply the price of admission. Personally I'm down 3.68% today, after being up 3% yesterday! The mighty $NSDQ100 is down 6%! So considering I'm 39% invested in cryptocurrencies, it's less than I would have thought. I also don't own any overvalued tech! So I avoided that fall. Mercado Libre is struggling a bit after earnings, but $ADBE is pretty much flat. I took my profits in Samsung a while back, and so avoided that fall. There's a smaller position in Oracle that's down but it's small enough to hold through volatility without any meaningful drawdown at all. The diversification and value core of my stocks is helping nicely! Gold is up today, as is TMF, and L'Oréal and Pepsi did have a bit of a green day before pulling back to flat just now. TOTAL3 (Crypto alts) is down 5%, so my portfolio drawdown today is pretty accurate to my holding allocation. Well ladies and gentlemen your two choices are: Shrug it off, take advantage of price drops and buy into whatever you choose, be it tech or crypto or copytrading. Or flail your arms about like it's 1929. I'll just keep on positioned how I am, very confident and looking forward to the future. Enjoy your evenings! Thanks to all copiers for your continued trust. #StockMarket #Nasdaq #Crypto #Investing #ValueInvesting #Diversification #eToro #CopyTrading Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion and not financial advice. Capital is at risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Cryptoassets are highly volatile and may be unregulated. Copy trading does not amount to investment advice.