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Trader. Illogic hater. Bias annihilator.

United States
Joined October 2025
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If one wants to make a case for markets, focus on favorites would not be the way to do it; look at races that both models and markets got wrong but to different degrees, like MS-Sen where models gave Colum 2-4 percent and markets gave 16, this is far more interesting
The favorite on Kalshi won 479 of 487 midterm races so far. That’s 98%, forecasted before a single vote was counted. The markets beat the polls and the models. The data 🧵
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Replying to @TonerousHyus
Bow down, b1tch
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Truth-seeking institutions are important. They shouldn't be criminalized.
The markets forecasted better than the models. Turns out the people know more than the experts.
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If you’re banning prediction markets, you think you’re going after gambling but what you’re doing is banning the most accurate source of news we have. Maybe focus on all the disinformation and slop that’s out there instead.
More than 80% of logged-in Kalshi users, who have viewed Kalshi's Midterms markets, do not trade. Instead, they view it as a key source of information. The below graphic shows where the attention is by state and race type. The Texas Senate is the single biggest trafficked page
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How the All In podcast is gonna be talking next week
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Replying to @Valkyrie_News17
Hahahahahahaahhahahahahahahaha 😂 😂 😂 hahajakkaahhhhhhhhhhhhahahahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahah 😆 😆 😆 😆 ahhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahaahahahaahahahahaahahahahahahaahahahahahahhahahah lolllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll lmao 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂
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Replying to @TonerousHyus
Haahahahaahahaahahahahahahaahahahahaahahahahaahahahahahah
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Replying to @marklevinshow
1. It’s bloc 2. How can harmony be in 🇮🇱 if Arabs are barred from govt? Jews & Arabs work together all over. Bedouins risked their lives to save Jews on 10-7 and despise Hamas. All despite the state neglecting them forever 3. A majority OF Israelis FOR Israelis. 4. GET FUCKED.
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European sourced gasoline heading to the Red Sea? There are reports of a cargo targeting Yanbu. This is not something one sees every day, or every year, or every decade, or even every century.
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Wonder how yields react should measured inflation come down meaningfully due to changes in methodology. "Inflation" is not a physical reality but socially defined by what is included in the reference basket and respective weights. Ofc, we have changed methodologies before as well
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One from the vault
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Holy shit Data Republican is like clinically stupid
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Replying to @WALLACHLEGAL
What an absolutely idiotic line of argument States can, and do, tax derivatives and commodities trading however the hell they please. NC is no different Who are these hacks? Why do you parrot their points as if they arent total garbage, and yet trash PM’s points readily? Hmm….
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"Hi DR it's Sarah Rogers, want a scoop sent via my personal device?" "Holy shit, is this espionage?" "It's a scoop, I'm giving you info" "You want me to leak this and go to prison!" "I'm giving it to you, wouldn't I be the leaker?" "The Deep State is trying to lock me up!" "..."
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The bond market is “a very unfair system.”
Trump: We could have GDP of 10, 12, 15 times if they just leave us alone. Let interest rates go down. It’s a very unfair system. They should drop interest rates because it means we have a strong country and it's all based on credit, meaning good credit, and we have the best credit and we'd pay off the debt very easily, very quickly.
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BESSENT: I MIGHT BE STRAIGHT TOMORROW
BESSENT: WE MAY HAVE IRAN DEAL TOMORROW TO OPEN HORMUZ -CNBC INTERVIEW
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If the Fed hikes this week, is that bearish bonds because the Fed is more worried about inflation than we thought, or bullish because they are getting ahead of the curve? If only there was some way they could tell us, you know, through some form of foward-looking guidance. Amazing that no CB has ever come up with a solution to this problem. Oh well...😉
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"you're 8 months behind on chipotle klarna payments because you've been saving up for the spacex ipo?"
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Last year, gasoline demand in the week following Memorial Day plunged to just 8.263-million b/d. By June 20, it flirted with 9.7-million b/d. Motor fuel consumption is very lumpy in June so don't be quick to declare US demand destruction.
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Kalshi's first example of a small business using it as hedging tool is The Jeffrey, an NYC bar that's promising free drinks to all customers if New York Knicks wins NBA Finals Game 1 on Wednesday
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