Former Bike racer. Founder & CEO of TMM @tmmastery. Crypto Trader & Investor. Lover of nerdy stuff.
Joined April 2022
- Tweets1.6K
- Following602
- Followers789
- Likes6.4K
Pinned Tweet
I trade Bitcoin and other crypto perpetual futures full-time. Have for 5 years.
Built my own system from scratch - confluence-based, Asia session focused, strict on which trades I'll actually take.
No signals. No hype. Just what I see at the chart every morning and the thinking behind it.
If that's useful to you, stick around.
Two questions I ask at any chart before anything else:
1. Is price at a level in the structure that actually matters?
2. What is momentum doing into that level?
If the first answer is no, I don't need the second one.
Days like the Binance hack remind me of two rules.
1. Get it off the exchange. If you're holding for the long term, it doesn't live there. The exchange holds your trading float and nothing else.
2. Know your risk heat. Add up every open position. What's your maximum exposure right now?
If that number is in check, a black swan is a blip. If it isn't, it can knock you out for a long time.
I've been there. Luna took everything I had.
What's your max exposure sitting at today?
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
Weekend habit that changed my trading more than any indicator:
I journal the trades I didn't take.
What the setup was. Why I passed. What happened next.
After a few months you can see whether your filters keep you safe or just keep you out.
Most of us only review the trades we took. The skipped ones are half the data.
We work through this every weekday in the free TMM community:
community.trademanagementmas…
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
Missed Friday's live? My read on the Binance hack.
The market took one of the biggest punches it's ever taken to the face. It doesn't have a glass jaw. It copped it on the chin.
This isn't a solvency event. Customer money isn't gone. Binance says its user fund and reserves cover the losses.
FTX took BlockFi, Genesis and Gemini Earn down with it. This one stayed inside one company. No lenders exposed, no fund left holding the bag.
Time will tell. That part of the live:
youtube.com/watch?v=I1_2CvHD…
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
Bitcoin has tanked in each of the last three midterm elections.
Days it took to reach the bottom after the midterms:
2022: 13 days
2018: 39 days
2014: 71 days
That's a small sample size. Only three.
History tells us it's going to be bloody. Whether it actually ends up bloody is another story. Nobody can see into the future.
So I'm not guessing the bottom. I'm watching my levels and planning for both sides.
Does midterm history change how you size into November?
More of this on the weekday lives with Bogdan. Follow along if it helps.
That part of Thursday's live:
youtube.com/watch?v=KTHjp2lM…
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
In a range I only trade the edges.
The middle is where you get chopped from both sides. Every candle looks like a breakout, and most of them aren't.
If price is in the middle, my job is to wait.
What do you do while price sits in the middle of a range?
Funding split as of 06:56 GMT, OKX perps, per 8 hours:
BTC +0.009%
ETH -0.007%
SOL -0.029%
Bybit shows the same picture, with ETH and SOL both around -0.014%.
Traders are still paying to be long Bitcoin while they pay to be short ETH and SOL. The shorts are crowding into the alts.
I don't read that as a direction call. If a squeeze comes, though, it should hit ETH and SOL harder than BTC, because that's where the shorts are paying to stay in.
Still to come today, GMT: 10:00 euro area GDP, 12:30 US employment cost index, 13:45 Chicago PMI, Fed's Daly at 16:00.
Do you check funding before an alt trade, or only the chart?
We go through funding and open interest reads in the free TMM community: community.trademanagementmas…
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
Europe is opening and BTC is at 78,650.
Asia opened at 77,992 and flushed to 76,500 in the 02:00 GMT hour. It has climbed back about 2,150 points since, and is sitting just under the Asia high at 78,804.
Two things I'm watching on this bounce.
Hourly volume has faded every hour since. The 06:00 GMT candle traded 623 BTC, under the 5-day hourly average of about 680.
OKX BTC open interest rose about 5% between 01:00 and 04:00 GMT, so leverage came back in on the way up. Funding is still slightly positive.
I don't chase a bounce like that. I'd want London to close an hour above 78,804, or retest the lows first.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
ALT BTC/USDT 1-hour candles over the last 96 hours with Asia sessions shaded. Asia high 78,804, 96-hour low 76,500, last 78,652. Binance spot data.
The market often whispers before it talks.
What a whisper looks like on my charts:
1. Price holds a higher low while momentum slips.
2. A level gets tested again and again but doesn't break.
3. Volume dries up into a move that should have had buyers.
None of these is a trade. Each one tells me where to look next.
I made some bad mistakes over the last two weeks.
Not the market's fault. I was completely careless.
I had a position that needed managing on a weekend. Adjust the stop, deal with it. I couldn't be bothered getting off the couch.
I did it not once, but twice.
No excuse. I know better than that. So I've made some adjustments.
You've got to practice what you preach.
What's the rule you break when you get comfortable?
We break down one trade management habit like this every day. Stick around if that's useful.
That part of Thursday's live:
youtube.com/watch?v=KTHjp2lM…
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
Missed Thursday's live? The one thing that mattered:
Anything to the right of the last candle is a guess.
Call it a hypothesis. Call it an educated guess. You still don't know.
The only facts we have are previous candles.
So I write down both sides before either happens. A daily close above 82.5K and I look higher. A lower low below 75K and the hidden bullish divergence is done.
ALT Official TMM YouTube thumbnail: Bogdan and Matt either side of two gold bars with a Bitcoin coin between them, text $62 APART.
If you want the process without the noise, a follow keeps these in your feed.
Replay:
youtube.com/watch?v=KTHjp2lM…
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
Binance had a security incident last night.
Around 20:24 GMT, ETH (~204.5k), ~$1.6B USDT, USDC and tokens like UNI, LINK, AAVE, PEPE and ENA left Binance hot wallets. Estimates run $5-6B+. Binance says it will cover losses.
How the charts reacted 🧵
BNB isn't confirmed as drained either, but it took the biggest wick of the four.
745 at the 20:00 GMT open, low 680 (-8.7%) at 20:45 GMT, 712 by 03:10 GMT.
When the exchange is the headline, its token carries that risk first.
ALT BNB/USDT 5-minute Binance spot chart, Oct 29 18:00 to Oct 30 03:10 GMT, with a dashed line at 20:24 GMT marking the Binance hot wallet outflows