TradeLeaks

It think it's stupid that "AI Bubble" gets used over and over. In infra names you have: - 1-3x fwd P/E memory companies from Samsung to $ESMT. With HBM players now having hyperscaler multi-year price floor LTAs. - Optical companies like $POET traded -$97M under net cash. Valuing the operating business very negatively, not even at $0. - While AI companies with larger premiums continue to record demand over the next 3-5 years. Such as the new $20B LTAs signed w/ $COHR to $5B LTAs signed w/ $LITE. Can someone in the media honestly see negative EV high-beta optical companies, where 2 years of burnrate would still value the company below $0. or single digit memory companies with contracted demand + price floors years out and say that's a bubble? Many of these names are extremely profitable today... But obviously there's other elements inside the theme, such as: - Certain startups like Instinct that look like a private valuation bubble. - Leveraged Neoclouds that didn't finance properly - and AI lab valuations and commitments, which should be viewed cautiously. But everything gets grouped into one with the boogyman of "leverage" or "debt". Yes, valuations can compress or correct from macro, potential regulatory uncertainty, or potential capex reductions. But for the companies physically powering the AI buildout, it looks more like the Great AI Deleveraging of 2026... Than anything like fundamental demand destruction. As more earnings come out and free cash flow accumulates over time. I'm confident in a recovery, especially in bottlenecks, and for markets to eventually discern durability + growth over frothy valuations tied to AI.

Citi: DRAM S/D Outlook $MU $DRAM $EWY $SKHY

AI server maker Wiwynn’s board on Friday approved cash injections of US$250 million for its US unit and $200 million for Malaysia, media report, adding it said customer order visibility remains strong despite recent stock market volatility. October revenue rose 80.9% year-on-year to NT$165.1 billion (US$5.04B), while Jan-Oct revenue hit NT$1.15 trillion (US$35.09B), up 54.0%. The company warned tight upstream materials could still impact monthly revenue. $AMZN $GOOGL $META $MSFT $ORCL ctee.com.tw/news/20261107700…

I found the technical discussion helpful, but investor messaging to be way too conservative. If you look at how $NVDA CEO describes CPO, Jensen states scale up is increasing optical volumes by 15x. $LITE and $COHR are quantifying that by describing $5-$20B agreements spanning 3-5 years out. Having this question, and not talking about Ayar, O-Net, Poet, or ELS partnerships. Then redirecting the question to near term pluggables seems off. The vision also needs work, “communications and sensing” semi company is very unexciting. It’s technically true, but there’s no vision being communicated on being the next $40B optical giant or what Sivers is going to be in the next 5 years that would attract long term holders. The core valuation Sivers gets is from optical opportunities, I also personally disagree that it’s helpful to loop back to former cellular relationships when talking about future $GFS volumes I disagree when you portray the company as “small” when Sivers 100m CW DFB capacity is coming online, alongside large foundry partners. Which is a material % of the world’s annual laser capacity. Investors want to hear about future economic opportunities and how you fill the gap with more qualifications during a bottleneck. Sivers has a tremendous opportunity for CPO/NPO/Pluggables but I’m afraid it’s not being communicated properly. It’s understandable here since EETimes is more technical oriented, but I hope this messaging gets communicated better in the next earnings call.

Samsung, SK hynix See Limited Hit From U.S. Data Center Curbs One person familiar with the industry said chips for data centers already under construction are being produced and that long-term contracts with customers keep demand strong. Policy changes in the United States are unlikely to translate into a drop in chip orders over the short term, the person said. Another industry official said that even if the Democrats tighten rules on AI data centers, demand will continue to exceed supply capacity for some time. "Thirty people are already lined up at a restaurant that is full, and five of them leaving does not create a table," the official said. Even if some data center projects are suspended, supply will still fall short of clearing the backlog of chip demand. $NVDA $AMD $MU $SNDK $AMZN $MSFT $GOOGL

Expert call covering CPO & Optical Modules — CPO deployment pace, switch ASICs vs AI accelerators, 7–8 month optical qualification bottlenecks, pluggable coexistence, and AI training cluster demand. $COHR $NVDA $GOOGL $TSLA $LITE $AVGO

Intel says its EMIB packaging uses more than 90% of each silicon wafer, compared with about 60% for interposer designs, media report, citing Intel Director of Foundry Packaging Kyu-oh Lee speaking at the International Symposium on Microelectronics Packaging (ISMP) in Busan, S. Korea this week. Lee also laid out the roadmap for larger packages up to 240x240mm, 32+ HBM stacks and 70+ EMIB bridges, up from 120x120mm, 12 HBM stacks and more than 20 EMIB bridges now. AI chip packages currently under development target 120x180mm, with 16+ HBM stacks and at least 38 bridges. Media say Google's TPU v9 and Amazon's custom chips may adopt EMIB-T. $INTC zdnet.co.kr/view/?no=2026110…

Jeongdong Choe, Senior Vice President of the Semiconductor Division at TechInsights, expects the memory boom to last for 3-4 more years. > Supply currently meets only about 85% of demand. > DRAM supply is short by approximately 10–12%, with NAND facing a similar deficit. > SVP Choe anticipates that supply levels will rise to 90–95% of demand by next year. Given that a balanced market typically requires supply to exceed demand by 2–3%, a seller's market is likely to persist. > A potential supply-driven downturn might re-emerge in 5–6 years, but that remains a long-term risk not currently weighing on short-term outlooks. > Supply at 100% of demand is still technically tight; true equilibrium requires supply at 102–103%. > In the second half of next year, as HBM4 adoption ramps, Samsung's market share could rise to 25–30%. > In DRAM, the process gap between Korean and US producers has largely closed. $MU $DRAM $EWY $SKHY $SNDK