Everything's just BS excuses to buy or sell under or overpriced vol, fake narratives spread by Wallstreet to create vol events.
Joined April 2022
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We are about to have another very expensive divorce 😱
JUST IN: AXIOS SHARES JENSEN HUANG MEMO TO EMPLOYEES
“I owe my family and all of you an apology.”
“I was unfaithful to my wife. My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did. I am deeply sorry.”
“I am fully committed to NVIDIA and will work to earn back your confidence.”
“I support the investigation and will cooperate fully.”
“My family bears no responsibility for my choices. I do. Please give them privacy.”
🟢 A volatility fade worth researching—not an automatic entry.
When VIX9D/VIX and VIX/VIX3M both cross above 1, shorter-horizon implied volatility is elevated relative to longer horizons. Stress is showing across the curve.
Across 96 historical episodes with observed outcomes (2011–Nov 6, 2026), average spot-VIX changes from the first joint-inversion close were:
🟢 1 week: −8.99% | lower in 78% of cases
🟢 2 weeks: −13.62% | lower in 82%
🟢 3 weeks: −16.06% | lower in 83%
🟢 4 weeks: −16.62% | lower in 81%
🟢 6 weeks: −15.63% | lower in 84%
Weeks here mean five trading sessions.
🔴 The catch: an eventual fade can follow a huge spike. After the Feb 2, 2018 signal, VIX rose from 17.16 to a high of 50.30 within five sessions—up 193%.
The takeaway: promising mean reversion, dangerous path risk. It's nonetheless fairy juicy for short vol trade. Defined risk can cap the loss, but entry price and timing still matter.
NFA.
Neoclouds are going to bounce hard once the market realizes
The governor-elect of Texas, Gina Hinojosa, has explicitly said that all currently permitted datacenters in Texas will be allowed to finish construction. This essentially covers all of the 2027 and likely well into 2028.
She is going to pass laws that ensure that all *newly* permitted datacenters going forward for delivery in 2028/2029 will pay taxes, commit to no increase in power prices for consumers, don’t impact water availability for people, be constructed with union labor and give “Texans a seat at the table.”
Sounds reasonable. She doesn’t want to lose a lot of good blue collar jobs and property taxes for small towns in rural Texas.
Datacenter commentary starts at 6:30 in this interview.
Also attaching her official campaign position from her website in the next post.
Sidenote: After watching a bunch of her speeches and interviews, I do think she is a political talent and probably has a future in national politics.
youtu.be/D-T6H3b8ZeE?is=mEWu…
🔴 VIX jumped 11.57 points today (+70%)
After 21 prior ≥10-point jumps since 1990:
🟢 SPX higher 71% next day and week; median +1.32%/+2.82%
🟢 VIX lower 81%/71%
Good news for the short term
So today
Big intraday moves with the SPX, while closing at ~0.5%
The fly/condor paid
My honest opinion on how to trade Monday?
After such a vol up spot down day like today
The following session tends to have a wide range but go nowhere
These are some of my favorite days
I have already opened a few short vol trades to monetize
A mixture of flies and condors, all defined risks that I am happy with either outcome
NFA
$SPX
Interesting day
SPX 3rd straight down close
-3.55% off highs
below its 20/50DMA
QQQ sitting on its 200D
VIX 21.15, front end inverted into the election.
Historical analogs (SPX+QQQ+VIX paths, n=25):
+1.68% avg over 20 days 🟢
up 76% vs a 61% baseline 🟢
Context, not a forecast.
