Troy Torrence

Early MNF $$$. Looking like we will need the Vikings large: 76% Bills -3 82% Bills -180 62% O 45

I am going live in approx. 30 minutes to fully break this one down. It probably won’t surprise you at this point that I’ve taken a few somewhat large positions in this game. I’ll see you in chat…. youtube.com/live/Cu5fG5B9ubc…

RAVENS vs. JAGUARS (Thursday Night Football) The 1st thing that comes to mind in this game is expectations for Joe Fagnano: (Undrafted Rookie) People look at what he did against Buffalo and expect a similar result in tonights matchup against the Jaguars. Passer Rating = 40 YPA = 4.3 Completion rate = 48% I think that is an extremely shallow and dangerous line of thinking. Were talking about a 3rd stringer who was thrusted into the spotlight on the road in Buffalo. Going into the game, I assure you he had no expectations of playing the game. I am certain he took 0 reps with the 1st team offense last week leading up to the game. Additionally, the gameplan was designed for Lamar/Huntley. It's a short week which isn't favorable. But he will be 10x more mentally prepared to play, the game is at home which will make things more comfortable, Declan Doyle will be able to scheme to his strengths, and this will be the healthiest the O-Line has been all season long. Do I think he throws for 300+ yards and posts a passer rating > 100? Absolutely not.... Do I think he's significantly better than he was last week? Without a doubt....

SEAHAWKS vs. BEARS (Monday Night Football) Variables in todays matchup that cannot be ignored.... We know Dennis Allen & the Bears defense play Man Coverage & Blitz at a top 10 rate. Sam Darnold has seen 2 teams that blitzed > 30% of dropbacks (DEN & WSH) Darnolds numbers in these 2 games? 74 passer rating 60% completion 6.8 YPA 3TD:4INT (5% TWP rate) Sam Darnold numbers vs. Man Coverage has also fallen off a cliff --> From +0.20 to -0.50 EPA/Play from 2025 to 2026. As it relates for the Bears; The ceiling is as high as any teams, especially on offense. However, have we ever seen the Ben Johnson & Caleb Williams tandem go on the road and post above average numbers? Unequivocally, the answer is no... Ben Johnson is a master of the short/screen passing game, and Caleb Williams is fully capable of executing his vision. But there's no defense in the NFL that can force opposing QB'S to throw it underneath, and rally to make the tackle. (SEA = Top 5 tackling unit)

SEAHAWKS vs. BEARS (Monday Night Football) Picking a side in this one is proving to be extremely difficult: Do we ride with the bookies who are clearly positioning themselves on the Seahawks? Or Do we put our faith in the X’s and O’s and ride with the Bears?

In week 5 of the NFL season, I had taken the biggest position of my career in backing the Patriots over the Raiders. Fast forward to week 8, and another opportunity of similar stature has presented itself. Positioning myself according to my edge & living with the consequences.

Let’s go a little deeper with the Patriots vs Raiders spot… Is Kirk Cousins equipped to take advantage of the injuries the Patriots have at the outside corner back position? Kirk is an immobile QB, who lacks arm strength, targets the center of the field at a top 5 rate, and 65% of his yards are in the center of the field. (Leads the NFL) The Patriots play single high shell at a ridiculously high clip, which comes with a middle hook and deep 3rd safety. Single high safeties force QB’s to operate outside the numbers; An area of the field Kirk doesn’t want to attack because of his physical limitations. There’s a reason this number is at 3/3.5, the bookies are taking a stand and siding with the Patriots.

NCAAF (10/31) This football season has been a blessing thus far as we've been absolutely dominant. It continued yesterday with Baylor that we played for 2u which is a massive bet for me in CFB. Tonight, there is 1 game in particular that I have my eye on of similar magnitude.