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π NFL SUNDAY MADRID POTD 11/8 π₯
Tee Higgins Over 77.5 Receiving Yards π
THIS MATCHUP IS PERFECTLY SUITED FOR TEE HIGGINS. Atlanta plays single-high coverage on 64% of dropbacks, the 3RD-HIGHEST rate in the NFL, and Higgins ranks 7TH in yards per route run against single-high at 3.22, compared to just 1.38 for Ja'Marr Chase. Higgins has cleared this line in 5/7 games this season (71%) and 4/5 recently (80%), averaging an ELITE 103.7 receiving YPG, the 2ND-MOST in the NFL. He's also exploded for 148+ YARDS in 3 of his last 4 games βΌοΈπ
Higgins' last 7 games, over in 5/7 (71%):
155 YDS | 11 TGT β
148 YDS | 7 TGT β
22 YDS | 4 TGT β
157 YDS | 16 TGT β
90 YDS | 7 TGT β
95 YDS | 10 TGT β
59 YDS | 6 TGT β
THE COVERAGE MATCHUP IS A MASSIVE ADVANTAGE. Atlanta ranks 24TH in defensive DVOA against WR2s, allowing 54.6 receiving yards per game to that role, while deploying the 10th-most man coverage in the NFL. Higgins currently grades as PFF's #1 WR against man coverage, making him an especially dangerous matchup when Atlanta leaves defenders isolated against him. The Falcons have also surrendered the 9TH-MOST AIR YARDS to opposing offenses, with 23 explosive passes allowed entering this matchup βΌοΈ
THE TARGET VOLUME AND ROUTE PARTICIPATION HAVE BEEN ELITE. Higgins is averaging 8.7 targets and 6.1 receptions per game, while ranking 4TH among qualifying receivers with 2.86 yards per route run. Since Cincinnati's bye, his route participation has jumped to 100% and 96.4%, producing back-to-back performances of 148 and 155 receiving yards. He also commanded 11 targets last week against Tennessee, catching 10 passes for 155 yards and 2 TDs π
Atlanta's defense is allowing opposing WRs to average:
150.1 RECEIVING YPG
18.9 TARGETS PER GAME
12.0 RECEPTIONS PER GAME
THE GAME SCRIPT SUPPORTS ANOTHER PASS-HEAVY PERFORMANCE. Cincinnati ranks #1 in pass rate over expected at +9.7%, increasing to +12.2% over its last 4 games. Joe Burrow leads the NFL with 302.1 passing YPG, and the Bengals have scored 31+ points in 3 STRAIGHT games. This matchup also carries a 52.5-point total with Cincinnati favored by just 3.5, creating a strong possibility of four competitive quarters and sustained passing volume π
I'M NUKING TEE HIGGINS OVER 77.5 RECEIVING YARDS β’οΈπ
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TurtleBets π’ retweeted
βΌοΈ CASH OUR FOURTH NBA PLAY TODAY WITH A LEGACY OT BANGβ
β
Yaxel Lendeborg over 17.5/18 Points β
β
CASH IT IN OVERTIME WHAT A BANGG π₯π₯
#NBAPicks #Gamblingπ #Warriors #PrizePicks
π NBA SATURDAY BANGER 11/7 π―
Yaxel Lendeborg Over 17.5 Points π
ORLANDO IS ALLOWING THE 2ND-MOST POINTS TO POWER FORWARDS IN THE NBA. The Magic are surrendering 29.5 PPG to the position and 53.0 combined PPG to forwards, the 3rd-most in the league. Lendeborg is averaging 21.0 PPG through his first 9 NBA games, clearing 17.5 in 5/9 (56%), with FOUR performances of 26+ POINTS. Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis, and Moses Moody remain OUT for Golden State, keeping Lendeborg in a prominent starting role against one of the league's most favorable forward matchups βΌοΈπ
Lendeborg this season, over in 5/9 (56%):
17 PTS | 14 FGA β
16 PTS | 10 FGA β
37 PTS | 19 FGA β
6 PTS | 3 FGA β
26 PTS | 20 FGA β
31 PTS | 19 FGA β
26 PTS | 19 FGA β
18 PTS | 11 FGA β
12 PTS | 11 FGA β
THE SHOT VOLUME IS THE BIGGEST INDICATOR. Lendeborg is averaging 14.0 FGA in 31.2 minutes per game, but when he reaches 19+ FGA, he's cleared this line in ALL 4 games (100%), averaging 30.0 PPG in those performances. He's already shown a tremendous scoring ceiling with 37 POINTS against the Clippers, 31 against Denver, and 26 against both Minnesota and Phoenix. Importantly, his 31-point explosion against Denver came WITH Stephen Curry playing, proving he can produce alongside Golden State's primary scoring option π
Orlando's struggles against opposing forwards were evident in its most recent loss to Phoenix. Dillon Brooks dropped 24 POINTS on 9/16 shooting, while Miles Bridges added 18 POINTS on 6/10 shooting. The Magic are allowing opposing forwards to shoot 51.0% from the field this season, and with Jonathan Isaac OUT, they're missing another defensive option in their frontcourt βΌοΈ
The main concern is Lendeborg's recent consistency, as he's fallen short in 3 of his last 5 games (60%), including 16 and 17 points in his last two outings. However, he attempted just 10 and 14 shots in those two games, compared with 19+ attempts in each of his four biggest scoring performances. Orlando enters at 2-6, allowing 115.0 PPG, giving Lendeborg a favorable opportunity to get back into the 20+ point range.
I'M LOCKING IN YAXEL LENDEBORG OVER 17.5 POINTS β’οΈπ
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TurtleBets π’ retweeted
π₯ CASH ANOTHER POTD LETS GOO WHAT A BANGER πβ
Kyshawn George over 19.5 PA β
β
THATS 3 WINS ON THE DAY WE GOT NFL TMR TOOππ
#NBAPicks #Gamblingπ #Wizards #PrizePicks
π NBA SATURDAY POTD 11/7 π
Kyshawn George Over 19.5 Points + Assists π
KY SHAWN GEORGE HAS BEEN ON AN ABSOLUTE TEAR. Heβs cleared this line in 6/9 games this season (67%), including 3 STRAIGHT (100%), averaging a MASSIVE 33.3 PA over those last 3 games. During that stretch, heβs averaging 26.7 PPG, 6.7 APG, and 37.0 minutes while attempting 16.0 shots per game. He JUST EXPLODED for 33 POINTS + 8 ASSISTS = 41 PA against Atlanta last night. Now he faces an Oklahoma City defense missing CHET HOLMGREN, CASON WALLACE, AND JALEN WILLIAMS βΌοΈπ
George this season, over in 6/9 games (67%):
33 PTS + 8 AST = 41 PA β
25 PTS + 7 AST = 32 PA β
22 PTS + 5 AST = 27 PA β
12 PTS + 3 AST = 15 PA β
8 PTS + 11 AST = 19 PA β
20 PTS + 2 AST = 22 PA β
22 PTS + 4 AST = 26 PA β
11 PTS + 3 AST = 14 PA β
18 PTS + 3 AST = 21 PA β
THE OFFENSIVE OPPORTUNITIES ARE THERE. George has averaged 16.0 FGA and 7.3 three-point attempts over his last 3 games, knocking down 12 THREES during that stretch. Heβs also averaging 5.1 assists per game this season, with NBA tracking recording 81 POTENTIAL ASSISTS through 9 games, equivalent to 9.0 potential assists per game. That gives him multiple ways to clear this line without needing another 30-point explosion π
ANTHONY DAVIS IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE tonight after missing yesterdayβs game with an ankle injury. George took advantage of his absence by attempting a season-high 19 FIELD GOALS, scoring 33 points and dishing out 8 assists. More importantly, his production hasnβt been dependent on Davis sitting. He previously recorded 27 PA against Orlando and 32 PA against Atlanta with Davis ACTIVE, showing that his scoring and playmaking opportunities remain substantial alongside Washingtonβs other offensive options βΌοΈ
Oklahoma City will be WITHOUT several key defensive pieces. Cason Wallaceβs absence removes an important perimeter defender, while Chet Holmgrenβs injury takes away one of their primary rim protectors. The Thunder still rank 5th in fewest points allowed at 107.4 PPG, so this isnβt an easy defensive matchup, but the missing personnel creates opportunities for George to remain aggressive attacking the defense.
The biggest concern is Washington playing on the SECOND NIGHT OF A BACK-TO-BACK, especially after George logged 39 minutes yesterday. Oklahoma City also enters 7-2 and just defeated Memphis by 31 points, creating legitimate blowout risk. However, George has already logged 35+ minutes in each of his last 3 games, and his combination of scoring volume and increased playmaking gives him two paths to production.
IβM SMASHING KYSHAWN GEORGE OVER 19.5 POINTS + ASSISTS β’οΈπ
If you want to research plays like this, use code βTURTLEBETSβ with @PropsEdge for 20% off ππ¬
#TurtleBets π’ #Wizards #NBAPicks #GamblingX #PrizePicks
TurtleBets π’ retweeted
π₯CASHHH SATURDAY PLAYπ₯
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 Assistsβ
LFGGG CASHHH SGA SWEAT FREEEπ€ LOCK IN FOR NFL TMR LETSS GOOOπ
#NBA #GamblingX #OKC #PrizePicks #NBAPicks
πNBA SATURDAY PLAY 11/7 π
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 Assists π
THE WASHINGTON MATCHUP + OKC INJURIES ARE THE KEYS TO THIS PLAY. SGA has recorded 7 assists in EACH of his last 2 meetings with Washington, clearing 5.5 in both (100%). Heβs also coming off back-to-back 8-assist performances earlier this week, and with Jalen Williams + Cason Wallace OUT, even more of OKCβs creation responsibility is falling on Shai βΌοΈπ
SGAβs last 5 vs Washington:
7 assists β
7 assists β
4 assists β
3 assists β
9 assists β
WASHINGTON HAS BEEN GIVING UP ASSISTS TO POINT GUARDS. Opposing PGs are averaging around 8.0 assists per game against the Wizards this season, well above the 6 we need from Shai tonight π
THE ROLE IS EVEN BIGGER RIGHT NOW. Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace are both out long-term, while Chet Holmgren is also sidelined. OKC has been forced to lean heavily on Shai as both its scorer and primary creator, and he responded with 8 assists in consecutive games against Cleveland βΌοΈ
The H2H also goes beyond just the last two. SGA has averaged 7.0 assists per game across his last 2 seasons against Washington, with the Wizards consistently sending extra attention toward him because of his scoring ability. That naturally opens passing lanes to shooters and cutters π
This isnβt purely a recent hit-rate play, itβs a MATCHUP + ROLE play. Washington has struggled containing primary ball-handlers, while OKC is missing multiple secondary creators, giving Shai a strong path to 6+ assists.
IβM TAKING SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER OVER 5.5 ASSISTS π
If you want to research plays like this, use code βTURTLEBETSβ with @PropsEdge for 20% off ππ¬
#TurtleBets π’ #Thunder #NBAPicks #GamblingX #PrizePicks
TurtleBets π’ retweeted
β’οΈ CASH THIS NUKE IN THE FIRST HALF SWEAT FREEE β
β
Tristan da Silva over 9.5 FGA β
β
THIS WAS INSANELY FREE WITHOUT BANE PLAYING TODAY π₯π₯
#NBAPicks #GamblingX #Magic #PrizePicks
β’οΈ NBA SATURDAY NUKEEEE 11/7 β’οΈ
Tristan da Silva Over 9.5 Field Goal Attempts π
PAOLO BANCHERO IS OUT, AND DA SILVA'S SHOT VOLUME HAS BEEN SKYROCKETING. He's cleared 9.5 FGA in 5/6 games WITHOUT Banchero (83%), including 3 STRAIGHT games with 14+ ATTEMPTS. He's averaging 11.8 FGA in those six games and 14.3 FGA over his last 3. Now he faces Golden State, whose opponents are taking 42.8% of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc, a favorable shot profile for a player attempting 8.0 THREES PER GAME βΌοΈπ
Da Silva's last 6 games without Banchero, over in 5/6 (83%):
15 FGA | 12 3PA β
14 FGA | 10 3PA β
14 FGA | 8 3PA β
5 FGA | 3 3PA β
10 FGA | 5 3PA β
13 FGA | 9 3PA β
THE THREE-POINT VOLUME IS THE BIGGEST SELLING POINT. Da Silva is averaging 8.0 three-point attempts on 11.4 total FGA this season, meaning OVER 70% of his shots are coming from beyond the arc. He's attempted 8+ THREES in 5/8 games (63%), and his last three performances featured 12, 10, and 8 attempts from deep alone. His recent perimeter volume has been high enough to put him within striking distance of this line without factoring in his two-point attempts π
Magic head coach Sean Sweeney has also PUBLICLY ENCOURAGED da Silva's aggressiveness from three, previously identifying 10+ three-point attempts as a desirable volume for him. This is particularly important because da Silva isn't relying on an unusually efficient shooting night to clear this prop, he simply needs the green light to continue taking shots. He's averaging 29.5 minutes this season despite coming off the bench, including 30, 32, and 35 minutes in his last 3 games βΌοΈ
Orlando remains WITHOUT BANCHERO, JALEN SUGGS, AND JONATHAN ISAAC, leaving the rotation thin and preserving da Silva's opportunity for substantial minutes. Banchero was averaging 24.5 PPG before his injury, and while Franz Wagner and Desmond Bane remain the main offensive options, da Silva has continued finding double-digit shot volume in their rotation. He also cleared this line in his only meeting with Golden State last season, attempting 13 FIELD GOALS in 29 minutes β
Golden State has won 6 STRAIGHT games, making a potential blowout the biggest concern for da Silva's minutes. However, he still played 30 minutes and attempted 15 shots in Orlando's 13-point loss to Phoenix, and 31 minutes with 10 attempts in its 30-point loss to Toronto.
I'M NUKING TRISTAN DA SILVA OVER 9.5 FIELD GOAL ATTEMPTS β’οΈπ
If you want to research plays like this, use code "TURTLEBETS" with @PropsEdge for 20% off ππ¬
#TurtleBets π’ #Magic #NBAPicks #GamblingX #PrizePicks
TurtleBets π’ retweeted
π NBA SATURDAY POTD 11/7 π
Kyshawn George Over 19.5 Points + Assists π
KY SHAWN GEORGE HAS BEEN ON AN ABSOLUTE TEAR. Heβs cleared this line in 6/9 games this season (67%), including 3 STRAIGHT (100%), averaging a MASSIVE 33.3 PA over those last 3 games. During that stretch, heβs averaging 26.7 PPG, 6.7 APG, and 37.0 minutes while attempting 16.0 shots per game. He JUST EXPLODED for 33 POINTS + 8 ASSISTS = 41 PA against Atlanta last night. Now he faces an Oklahoma City defense missing CHET HOLMGREN, CASON WALLACE, AND JALEN WILLIAMS βΌοΈπ
George this season, over in 6/9 games (67%):
33 PTS + 8 AST = 41 PA β
25 PTS + 7 AST = 32 PA β
22 PTS + 5 AST = 27 PA β
12 PTS + 3 AST = 15 PA β
8 PTS + 11 AST = 19 PA β
20 PTS + 2 AST = 22 PA β
22 PTS + 4 AST = 26 PA β
11 PTS + 3 AST = 14 PA β
18 PTS + 3 AST = 21 PA β
THE OFFENSIVE OPPORTUNITIES ARE THERE. George has averaged 16.0 FGA and 7.3 three-point attempts over his last 3 games, knocking down 12 THREES during that stretch. Heβs also averaging 5.1 assists per game this season, with NBA tracking recording 81 POTENTIAL ASSISTS through 9 games, equivalent to 9.0 potential assists per game. That gives him multiple ways to clear this line without needing another 30-point explosion π
ANTHONY DAVIS IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE tonight after missing yesterdayβs game with an ankle injury. George took advantage of his absence by attempting a season-high 19 FIELD GOALS, scoring 33 points and dishing out 8 assists. More importantly, his production hasnβt been dependent on Davis sitting. He previously recorded 27 PA against Orlando and 32 PA against Atlanta with Davis ACTIVE, showing that his scoring and playmaking opportunities remain substantial alongside Washingtonβs other offensive options βΌοΈ
Oklahoma City will be WITHOUT several key defensive pieces. Cason Wallaceβs absence removes an important perimeter defender, while Chet Holmgrenβs injury takes away one of their primary rim protectors. The Thunder still rank 5th in fewest points allowed at 107.4 PPG, so this isnβt an easy defensive matchup, but the missing personnel creates opportunities for George to remain aggressive attacking the defense.
The biggest concern is Washington playing on the SECOND NIGHT OF A BACK-TO-BACK, especially after George logged 39 minutes yesterday. Oklahoma City also enters 7-2 and just defeated Memphis by 31 points, creating legitimate blowout risk. However, George has already logged 35+ minutes in each of his last 3 games, and his combination of scoring volume and increased playmaking gives him two paths to production.
IβM SMASHING KYSHAWN GEORGE OVER 19.5 POINTS + ASSISTS β’οΈπ
If you want to research plays like this, use code βTURTLEBETSβ with @PropsEdge for 20% off ππ¬
#TurtleBets π’ #Wizards #NBAPicks #GamblingX #PrizePicks
TurtleBets π’ retweeted
π NBA SATURDAY POTD 11/7 βΌοΈ
Jabari Smith Jr. Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made π
JABARI HAS CLEARED THIS LINE IN 8/9 GAMES THIS SEASON (89%), INCLUDING 7 STRAIGHT GAMES! He's averaging 3.0 THREES on 6.1 attempts per game while shooting 49.1% from beyond the arc. Now he faces a Phoenix Suns defense allowing the 2ND-MOST THREE-POINTERS IN THE NBA at 15.4 makes on 39.1 attempts per game, with opponents shooting 39.4% from deep. This is one of the BEST perimeter matchups he could ask for βΌοΈπ
Jabari's last 7 games, over in 7/7 (100%):
2/3 3PT β
4/5 3PT β
6/12 3PT β
3/7 3PT β
3/6 3PT β
2/6 3PT β
2/6 3PT β
THE THREE-POINT VOLUME HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. Over his last 5 games, Jabari is averaging 3.6 MADE THREES on 6.6 attempts, including a massive 6/12 performance against OKC and 4/5 against Boston. He's also averaging 34.6 minutes per game this season, giving him plenty of opportunities to get his shots up. Over HALF of his field goal attempts this season have come from beyond the arc, making the three-pointer a major part of his offensive role π
Phoenix has been getting EXPOSED from beyond the arc through its first 7 games. The Suns have already allowed opponents to make:
20 THREES | Denver
19 THREES | Portland
17 THREES | Golden State
14 THREES | Portland
13 THREES | Orlando
Jabari also has a solid recent H2H history against Phoenix, clearing 1.5 threes in 3/4 matchups last season (75%):
5/13 3PT β
3/8 3PT β
1/2 3PT β
2/6 3PT β
His most recent meeting with Phoenix was especially impressive, knocking down 5 THREES on 13 attempts while playing 39 minutes. He also attempted 8 threes in their January matchup, showing that he's previously generated substantial perimeter volume against this opponent.
I'M SMASHING JABARI SMITH JR. OVER 1.5 THREE-POINTERS MADE β’οΈπ
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#TurtleBets π’ #Rockets #NBAPicks #GamblingX #PrizePicks
TurtleBets π’ retweeted
β’οΈ NBA SATURDAY NUKEEEE 11/7 β’οΈ
Ajay Mitchell Over 19.5 Points π
JALEN WILLIAMS, CHET HOLMGREN, AND CASON WALLACE ARE ALL OUT. Mitchell has THRIVED in his expanded scoring role, clearing this line in 5 of 6 games (83%) since all three went down. He's averaging 23.8 PPG on 16.3 field goal attempts during that stretch, and JUST EXPLODED for 35 POINTS on 14/20 shooting against Memphis last night. Now he gets a Washington defense that just surrendered 139 POINTS to Atlanta βΌοΈπ
Mitchell's last 6 games without all three, over in 5/6 (83%):
35 PTS | 20 FGA β
23 PTS | 17 FGA β
20 PTS | 16 FGA β
6 PTS | 9 FGA β
29 PTS | 20 FGA β
30 PTS | 16 FGA β
THE INCREASED SHOT VOLUME IS HUGE. Before these injuries, Mitchell averaged just 11.3 PPG on 11.0 FGA across his first 3 games. Since entering the starting lineup in their absence, that has jumped to 23.8 PPG on 16.3 FGA, with his playing time increasing from 24.7 to 29.3 minutes per game. He's also averaging 5.0 free throw attempts during this six-game stretch, giving him another scoring avenue beyond his field goal production π
Washington's defense was JUST EXPOSED by Atlanta, surrendering 139 points on 53.1% shooting. Nickeil Alexander-Walker dropped 28 POINTS, while Lu Dort added another 25 POINTS. That's 53 combined points from two Hawks guards, and now Washington has to travel to Oklahoma City on the second night of a back-to-back βΌοΈ
Mitchell has also shown he can produce alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, putting up 30, 29, and 35-point performances despite Shai remaining the Thunder's primary scorer. His most recent 35-point explosion came in just 30 minutes during a 31-point victory, showing that he doesn't necessarily need a full 35-minute workload to generate big scoring numbers. The back-to-back and potential blowout are the main minutes risks tonight.
I'M NUKING AJAY MITCHELL OVER 19.5 POINTS β’οΈπ
If you want to research plays like this, use code "TURTLEBETS" with @PropsEdge for 20% off ππ¬
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TurtleBets π’ retweeted
β’οΈ NBA SATURDAY NUKEEEE 11/7 β’οΈ
Tristan da Silva Over 9.5 Field Goal Attempts π
PAOLO BANCHERO IS OUT, AND DA SILVA'S SHOT VOLUME HAS BEEN SKYROCKETING. He's cleared 9.5 FGA in 5/6 games WITHOUT Banchero (83%), including 3 STRAIGHT games with 14+ ATTEMPTS. He's averaging 11.8 FGA in those six games and 14.3 FGA over his last 3. Now he faces Golden State, whose opponents are taking 42.8% of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc, a favorable shot profile for a player attempting 8.0 THREES PER GAME βΌοΈπ
Da Silva's last 6 games without Banchero, over in 5/6 (83%):
15 FGA | 12 3PA β
14 FGA | 10 3PA β
14 FGA | 8 3PA β
5 FGA | 3 3PA β
10 FGA | 5 3PA β
13 FGA | 9 3PA β
THE THREE-POINT VOLUME IS THE BIGGEST SELLING POINT. Da Silva is averaging 8.0 three-point attempts on 11.4 total FGA this season, meaning OVER 70% of his shots are coming from beyond the arc. He's attempted 8+ THREES in 5/8 games (63%), and his last three performances featured 12, 10, and 8 attempts from deep alone. His recent perimeter volume has been high enough to put him within striking distance of this line without factoring in his two-point attempts π
Magic head coach Sean Sweeney has also PUBLICLY ENCOURAGED da Silva's aggressiveness from three, previously identifying 10+ three-point attempts as a desirable volume for him. This is particularly important because da Silva isn't relying on an unusually efficient shooting night to clear this prop, he simply needs the green light to continue taking shots. He's averaging 29.5 minutes this season despite coming off the bench, including 30, 32, and 35 minutes in his last 3 games βΌοΈ
Orlando remains WITHOUT BANCHERO, JALEN SUGGS, AND JONATHAN ISAAC, leaving the rotation thin and preserving da Silva's opportunity for substantial minutes. Banchero was averaging 24.5 PPG before his injury, and while Franz Wagner and Desmond Bane remain the main offensive options, da Silva has continued finding double-digit shot volume in their rotation. He also cleared this line in his only meeting with Golden State last season, attempting 13 FIELD GOALS in 29 minutes β
Golden State has won 6 STRAIGHT games, making a potential blowout the biggest concern for da Silva's minutes. However, he still played 30 minutes and attempted 15 shots in Orlando's 13-point loss to Phoenix, and 31 minutes with 10 attempts in its 30-point loss to Toronto.
I'M NUKING TRISTAN DA SILVA OVER 9.5 FIELD GOAL ATTEMPTS β’οΈπ
If you want to research plays like this, use code "TURTLEBETS" with @PropsEdge for 20% off ππ¬
#TurtleBets π’ #Magic #NBAPicks #GamblingX #PrizePicks
TurtleBets π’ retweeted
π NBA SATURDAY BANGER 11/7 π―
Yaxel Lendeborg Over 17.5 Points π
ORLANDO IS ALLOWING THE 2ND-MOST POINTS TO POWER FORWARDS IN THE NBA. The Magic are surrendering 29.5 PPG to the position and 53.0 combined PPG to forwards, the 3rd-most in the league. Lendeborg is averaging 21.0 PPG through his first 9 NBA games, clearing 17.5 in 5/9 (56%), with FOUR performances of 26+ POINTS. Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis, and Moses Moody remain OUT for Golden State, keeping Lendeborg in a prominent starting role against one of the league's most favorable forward matchups βΌοΈπ
Lendeborg this season, over in 5/9 (56%):
17 PTS | 14 FGA β
16 PTS | 10 FGA β
37 PTS | 19 FGA β
6 PTS | 3 FGA β
26 PTS | 20 FGA β
31 PTS | 19 FGA β
26 PTS | 19 FGA β
18 PTS | 11 FGA β
12 PTS | 11 FGA β
THE SHOT VOLUME IS THE BIGGEST INDICATOR. Lendeborg is averaging 14.0 FGA in 31.2 minutes per game, but when he reaches 19+ FGA, he's cleared this line in ALL 4 games (100%), averaging 30.0 PPG in those performances. He's already shown a tremendous scoring ceiling with 37 POINTS against the Clippers, 31 against Denver, and 26 against both Minnesota and Phoenix. Importantly, his 31-point explosion against Denver came WITH Stephen Curry playing, proving he can produce alongside Golden State's primary scoring option π
Orlando's struggles against opposing forwards were evident in its most recent loss to Phoenix. Dillon Brooks dropped 24 POINTS on 9/16 shooting, while Miles Bridges added 18 POINTS on 6/10 shooting. The Magic are allowing opposing forwards to shoot 51.0% from the field this season, and with Jonathan Isaac OUT, they're missing another defensive option in their frontcourt βΌοΈ
The main concern is Lendeborg's recent consistency, as he's fallen short in 3 of his last 5 games (60%), including 16 and 17 points in his last two outings. However, he attempted just 10 and 14 shots in those two games, compared with 19+ attempts in each of his four biggest scoring performances. Orlando enters at 2-6, allowing 115.0 PPG, giving Lendeborg a favorable opportunity to get back into the 20+ point range.
I'M LOCKING IN YAXEL LENDEBORG OVER 17.5 POINTS β’οΈπ
If you want to research plays like this, use code "TURTLEBETS" with @PropsEdge for 20% off ππ¬
#TurtleBets π’ #Warriors #NBAPicks #GamblingX #PrizePicks
TurtleBets π’ retweeted
πNBA SATURDAY PLAY 11/7 π
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 Assists π
THE WASHINGTON MATCHUP + OKC INJURIES ARE THE KEYS TO THIS PLAY. SGA has recorded 7 assists in EACH of his last 2 meetings with Washington, clearing 5.5 in both (100%). Heβs also coming off back-to-back 8-assist performances earlier this week, and with Jalen Williams + Cason Wallace OUT, even more of OKCβs creation responsibility is falling on Shai βΌοΈπ
SGAβs last 5 vs Washington:
7 assists β
7 assists β
4 assists β
3 assists β
9 assists β
WASHINGTON HAS BEEN GIVING UP ASSISTS TO POINT GUARDS. Opposing PGs are averaging around 8.0 assists per game against the Wizards this season, well above the 6 we need from Shai tonight π
THE ROLE IS EVEN BIGGER RIGHT NOW. Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace are both out long-term, while Chet Holmgren is also sidelined. OKC has been forced to lean heavily on Shai as both its scorer and primary creator, and he responded with 8 assists in consecutive games against Cleveland βΌοΈ
The H2H also goes beyond just the last two. SGA has averaged 7.0 assists per game across his last 2 seasons against Washington, with the Wizards consistently sending extra attention toward him because of his scoring ability. That naturally opens passing lanes to shooters and cutters π
This isnβt purely a recent hit-rate play, itβs a MATCHUP + ROLE play. Washington has struggled containing primary ball-handlers, while OKC is missing multiple secondary creators, giving Shai a strong path to 6+ assists.
IβM TAKING SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER OVER 5.5 ASSISTS π
If you want to research plays like this, use code βTURTLEBETSβ with @PropsEdge for 20% off ππ¬
#TurtleBets π’ #Thunder #NBAPicks #GamblingX #PrizePicks
TurtleBets π’ retweeted
Early Soccer Parlayβ½οΈπ₯
Letβs cash this one earlyπ
#Gamblingπ #SoccerPicks
TurtleBets π’ retweeted
πNBA SATURDAY PLAY 11/7 π
Nikola JokiΔ Over 9.5 Assists π
THE INDIANA H2H IS THE KEY TO THIS PLAY. JokiΔ has recorded 10+ assists in EACH of his last 5 meetings with the Pacers (100%), averaging an ABSURD 13.8 assists per game. Last season alone he dropped 14 and 13 assists against Indiana, clearing this line in BOTH meetings (100%) βΌοΈπ
JokiΔβs last 5 vs Indiana:
13 assists β
14 assists β
13 assists β
19 assists β
10 assists β
THE RECENT PLAYMAKING IS JUST AS STRONG. JokiΔ has recorded 10+ assists in 4 of his last 5 games (80%), posting 11, 8, 10, 10 and 11 while averaging exactly 10.0 assists across that stretch π
Heβs coming off 11 assists in only 30 minutes against Toronto, and heβs averaging 9.3 assists per game through Denverβs first 7 games. The offense continues to run completely through him, with JokiΔ creating opportunities on nearly every possession π
Indiana is also shorthanded in the backcourt with Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell OUT. The Pacers are allowing 114.2 points per game, while opponents are shooting efficiently against them, giving Denver plenty of opportunities for made baskets off JokiΔ feeds βΌοΈ
The matchup has consistently brought out JokiΔβs playmaking. Across his last 5 against Indiana heβs averaged 29.2 points, 11.8 rebounds AND 13.8 assists, including four straight games with 13+ dimes.
IβM PLAYING NIKOLA JOKIΔ OVER 9.5 ASSISTSπ
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TurtleBets π’ retweeted
π CASH ANOTHER POTD IN THE FIRST HALF SWEAT FREE β
β
Deni Avdija over 5.5 Assists β
β
THIS WAS SO FREE HE HAS SO MUCH USAGE WITHOUT JA π₯π₯
#NBAPicks #Gamblingπ #Blazers #PrizePicks
π NBA FRIDAY POTD 11/6 π
Deni Avdija Over 5.5 Assists π
Collab with @vanishpicks π»π₯
DENI AVDIJA HAS EMERGED AS PORTLAND'S LEADING PLAYMAKER. He had a season high 12 assists with a 17 potential on Wednesday against Phoenix to go with 21 points, he is also averaging 6.4 assists through his first seven games this season. Portland is 6-1 and he has taken over much of the ball handling, with Morant, Sharpe and Krejci all out tonight. He is creating about 12 potential assists a game this season, and in the four games he hit 11 or more he cleared this line every time, with 6, 9, 7 and 12. The misses came when his passing volume was lower. He also had 9 assists against these same Lakers on October 27.
Sixty percent of Deni's assists this season come on threes, 44% above the break and 16% from the corners, and the Lakers rank 23rd and 25th defending those two zones. They also rank 29th defending spot ups and 24th against catch and shoot, which are exactly the shots his kickouts create. Over their last five games they have slipped to 27th defending above the break threes and 28th in the corners. They rank 21st against the position as well, so a big ball handler getting downhill should find open shooters all night, and the 233.5 total points to plenty of possessions.
Avdija is averaging 12.0 potential assists, 49.7 passes made and 68.1 touches per game this season. He's also creating approximately 17.1 points per game through assists, showing how much of Portland's offense flows through him. His 12 potential assists per game provide substantial opportunities to generate the 6 actual assists needed to clear this line!
RJ Barrett was lined at 3.5 assists against the Lakers this season and finished with 5. Brandin Podziemski was also lined at 3.5 and dished out 6. Three of four similar players have cleared their assist line against Los Angeles this season with a +31% average difference. Deni already put up 9 against them on October 27, and now he gets them with Portland's other ball handlers sidelined.
I'M SMASHING DENI AVDIJA OVER 5.5 ASSISTS β’οΈπ
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TurtleBets π’ retweeted
NFL POTDβ’οΈ
Greg Dulcich O 3.5 REC
5+ Targets in Last 4/5 weeks
Backup TE Will Kacmarek is questionable after being Limited
Facing DET who allows the MOST Targets and REC to TEs this season
A TE has had 4+ REC vs DET in EVERY GAME this season
TurtleBets π’ retweeted
NHL POTDππ€Record:8-1
Samuel Blais+Paul Cotter O 1.5 Hits
Blais is a hitter only playing one game with 4 hits had 2 hits in 17/21 games last szn.
Cotter is a hitter. Over 15/17 Avg 3.2. Over 9/11 H2H. Edm ranks 3rd in hits alowed
β€οΈ If Tailing
TurtleBets π’ retweeted
π₯ CASH ANOTHER POTD IN THE FIRST HALF BANGGG β
β
Cedric Coward over 1.5 Threes Made β
β
I played this on Chalkboard, use code βTURTLEBETSβ and get up to $100 and a FREE PICK βΌοΈ
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π₯ NBA CUP FRIDAY POTD 11/6 π
Cedric Coward Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made π
CEDRIC COWARD HAS BEEN AUTOMATIC FROM THREE, AND OKC HAS BEEN GETTING TORCHED FROM BEYOND THE ARC. Coward has cleared 1.5 threes in 6 STRAIGHT GAMES (100%) and 6 of his first 7 this season (86%), averaging 2.7 MADE THREES on 5.4 ATTEMPTS per game βΌοΈ Now he faces a Thunder defense allowing the 3RD-MOST THREE-POINTERS in the NBA at 15.3 per game. Coward JUST knocked down 4 THREES on a season-high 12 ATTEMPTS against Indiana, while averaging 3.0 made threes over his last 5 games π
Coward's last 6 games, over in 6/6 (100%):
vs IND: 4/12 3PT β
vs NOP: 2/5 3PT β
vs SAC: 2/5 3PT β
vs POR: 3/5 3PT β
vs UTA: 4/4 3PT β
vs SAC: 3/5 3PT β
THE THREE-POINT VOLUME HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT. Coward is averaging 6.0 THREE-POINT ATTEMPTS over his last 6 games, connecting on 18/36 (50%). He's attempted 5+ THREES in 5 of those 6 games (83%), including a MASSIVE 12 ATTEMPTS against Indiana on Wednesday. His perimeter involvement has increased significantly from last season, when he averaged just 1.5 made threes in 25.8 minutes compared to 2.7 in 29.3 minutes this year βΌοΈπ
OKLAHOMA CITY HAS STRUGGLED TO DEFEND THE THREE. The Thunder are surrendering 15.3 MADE THREES per game, ranking 28TH in the NBA. They've already allowed several massive shooting performances:
Cleveland: 18 MADE THREES
Houston: 18 MADE THREES
Phoenix: 18 MADE THREES
Dallas: 16 MADE THREES
LA Clippers: 15 MADE THREES
MEMPHIS HAS BEEN ONE OF THE NBA'S MOST PRODUCTIVE PERIMETER OFFENSES. The Grizzlies rank 2ND in made threes at 15.8 per game, with Coward leading the team at 2.7 3PM. Memphis is also WITHOUT Scotty Pippen Jr. again, and Coward has continued receiving consistent starting minutes alongside Ty Jerome. Tonight's NBA Cup matchup presents another opportunity for Coward to maintain his elevated perimeter shooting workload π
I'M NUKING CEDRIC COWARD OVER 1.5 THREE-POINTERS MADE β’οΈπ
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TurtleBets π’ retweeted
π₯ BANG THE FIRST POTD SWEAT FREE BY THE 3Q β
β
Kyshawn George over 23.5 PRA β
β
NO ANTHONY DAVIS TODAY HELPED US CASH EASYY π€
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π NBA FRIDAY NIGHT POTD 11/6 βΌοΈ
Kyshawn George Over 23.5 PRA π
ATLANTA IS THE #1 MATCHUP FOR FORWARDS IN PRA ALLOWED PER 100 POSSESSIONS THIS SEASON. The Hawks are surrendering 91.3 PRA per 100 possessions to forwards, 28.4% ABOVE the league average, while allowing the 2ND-MOST fantasy points to the position. George JUST TORCHED THIS SAME HAWKS TEAM for 25 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists, totaling 36 PRA on Wednesday. Heβs cleared 23.5 PRA in 5/8 games this season (63%), and Anthony Davis is questionable βΌοΈπ
Georgeβs last 5 games, over in 3/5 (60%):
25 PTS + 4 REB + 7 AST = 36 PRA β
22 PTS + 4 REB + 5 AST = 31 PRA β
12 PTS + 3 REB + 3 AST = 18 PRA β
8 PTS + 2 REB + 11 AST = 21 PRA β
20 PTS + 4 REB + 2 AST = 26 PRA β
THE MINUTES AND SHOT VOLUME ARE TRENDING UP. George has averaged 35.5 minutes over his last 4 games compared to 30.0 across his first 4. Heβs logged 35+ minutes in 3 of his last 4 and attempted 14 and 15 field goals in his last two, including 7 and 8 three-point attempts. Heβs averaging 33.5 PRA across those two games, with the increased playing time giving him more opportunities across all three categories π
His PLAYMAKING VOLUME is another important part of this prop. George is averaging 8.5 POTENTIAL ASSISTS and 41.6 PASSES MADE per game through 8 games this season, generating approximately 11.3 assist points created per game. Heβs also averaging 6.0 actual assists over his last two games, showing that his PRA production isnβt dependent entirely on scoring βΌοΈ
George has also cleared this line in 2 of his last 3 meetings against Atlanta (67%). His previous 35+ minute matchup against the Hawks last season produced 15 PTS + 6 REB + 7 AST = 28 PRA, while his lone miss in those three meetings came when he played just 22 minutes. The high-minute matchups have been particularly productive β
The GAME SCRIPT offers another opportunity for volume. Atlanta is playing at the 4th-fastest pace in the NBA at approximately 102 possessions per game, and tonightβs matchup carries a 229.5-point total. Even when Washington lost by 15 against Atlanta on Wednesday, George still logged 35 minutes. Another fast-paced game gives him opportunities to accumulate points, rebounds and assists throughout the night π
IβM NUKING KYSHAWN GEORGE OVER 23.5 PRA β’οΈπ
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