Trade world events before the market prices them in. Write one rule. Spells fires your trade the moment you're right. Closed beta. Seats open in waves.
Joined February 2021
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Diplomacy is not a ceasefire
Polymarket gives a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31, 2026 a 16% chance.
A phone call is not an agreement. Sanctions would require separate decisions.
Pair idea: $BRENTOIL
Illustrative scenario
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CoreWeave: watch rental economics
Polymarket gives the H200 index at least $5.50 on Oct 31, 2026 a 79% chance.
The H200 index is not CoreWeave’s realized rental rate. This market is thin.
Pair idea: $CRWV
Illustrative scenario
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Alphabet: earnings versus spending
Polymarket gives Alphabet an earnings beat on Oct 28, 2026 a 19.5% chance.
The hurdle is GAAP EPS above $3.10. AI spending still matters.
Pair idea: $GOOGL
Illustrative scenario
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CLARITY: a vote is not a law
Polymarket gives CLARITY becoming law by Dec 31, 2026 a 4.35% chance.
One chamber is not enough. The bill needs a presidential signature.
Pair idea: $COIN
Illustrative scenario
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Apple: touch is the actual test
Polymarket gives a touchscreen MacBook release by Dec 31, 2026 a 98.2% chance.
A product unveiling is not a release. The public must be able to buy it.
Pair idea: $AAPL
Illustrative scenario
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Microsoft: the fixed hurdle
Polymarket gives Microsoft an earnings beat on Oct 28, 2026 a 74.5% chance.
The test is GAAP EPS above $4.82. Guidance can move shares the other way.
Pair idea: $MSFT
Illustrative scenario
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Robinhood: access beats announcements
Polymarket gives Robinhood winning the US stock-token race 35.5% odds; the fallback is Dec 31, 2027.
The race needs qualifying US retail access. Overseas launches do not count.
Pair idea: $HOOD
Illustrative scenario
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Stablecoins: pilot versus scale
Polymarket gives stablecoins reaching $500B by Dec 31, 2026 a 3.25% chance.
Circle’s Colombia pilot is adoption news, not proof of $500B in supply.
Pair idea: $CRCL
Illustrative scenario
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Anthropic: filing versus trading
Polymarket gives an Anthropic IPO by Nov 30, 2026 a 91.5% chance.
An S-1 is not an IPO. Amazon is an indirect exposure.
Pair idea: $AMZN
Illustrative scenario
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RLUSD is not XRP
Polymarket gives XRP above $1.30 on Oct 30, 2026 at 16:00 UTC a 69% chance.
Ripple’s Robinhood deal expands RLUSD. That does not guarantee XRP demand.
Pair idea: ripple:native
Illustrative scenario
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